A Question about the AP approval timelines and traveling after AP approval but before receipt of card in the mail

[jaysaldi 213]

13 minutes ago, missileman said:

Sample size is important.......that's the point.

That's fair enough. I thought 20-30 was a pretty good sample size but more is certainly better.

[geowrian 22,338]

31 minutes ago, jaysaldi said:

But under this logic, the approvals reported in late December and early January should  be mostly from people with NOA1s from June-August, with only a "handful" from September. That's not what the timeline stats are showing. The majority of the recent approvals are from posters with NOA1s in September who got approved in less than four months.

As noted, you're dealing with a small sample size, and then only looking at a small portion of that - those who have reported approval.

 

A couple points to consider:

1) In your prior link, sorting your prior link's data by approval date (newest->oldest): https://www.visajourney.com/timeline/aplist.php?cfl=0&op1=app&op2=d&op4=1&op5=3,6,9,10

Page 1 has 2 cases where it took ~5-6 months for approval. These are very recent approvals.

Page 4 has a majority of cases in the ~4-6 month range. These are approvals from mid-December.

 

Are those cases where it took less than 4 months the norm? Or are the cases that took 5 or 6 months the norm? It's impossible to say.

I've seen a few times where a few dozen people who filed an I-129F had their case approved in ~3-4 months (not expedited) while most people were still waiting 6-8 months.

 

2) Lets look at it another way. Instead of looking at the average - which you cannot know until you have all the data - let's look at from another angle. Starting with people who filed 4 months ago and looking at reported approvals form them, at what point are x% of the cases approved? Basically, when do most (x%) people get a decision within? This is something that can be calculated using incomplete data. That said, there are cases of people not updating their timelines so they will never show approved, people with an RFIE who have delayed their process (sometimes by months for not having a response right away), etc. So that factor must be considered in determine the percentage point top consider.

 

To do this, you can sort the prior list by NOA1 date (newest -> oldest), and limit the search to people who filed starting 4 months ago (page 35 as of this posting): https://www.visajourney.com/timeline/aplist.php?cfl=0&op1=noa&op2=d&op3=&op4=35&op5=3,6,9,10&op6=&op8=

If you set the percentage at 50%, it roughly (I did not do an actual calculation) appears to happen a little before page 50 - late July filers. Let's say early August so we can compare it to now (early January). That's 5 months.

So within 5 months, about 50% of filers have been approved.

This is not a perfect plan nor implementation. It's another way to look at the data, one that does not require having a complete dataset.

Just some food for thought.

Edited January 5, 2020 by geowrian

[jaysaldi 213]

32 minutes ago, geowrian said:

 

 

To do this, you can sort the prior list by NOA1 date (newest -> oldest), and limit the search to people who filed starting 4 months ago (page 35 as of this posting): https://www.visajourney.com/timeline/aplist.php?cfl=0&op1=noa&op2=d&op3=&op4=35&op5=3,6,9,10&op6=&op8=

If you set the percentage at 50%, it roughly (I did not do an actual calculation) appears to happen a little before page 50 - late July filers. Let's say early August so we can compare it to now (early January). That's 5 months.

So within 5 months, about 50% of filers have been approved.

This is not a perfect plan nor implementation. It's another way to look at the data, one that does not require having a complete dataset.

Just some food for thought.

I considered that, but that methodology assumes everyone updates their timeline promptly when they get approved. I'm sure many people don't. 

 

That's why I thought the better methodology is just to look at the most recent 20 or 50 or 100 approvals that are reported and then count the number of days for each from NOA1 and average them, or better yet, choose the median, which tosses out the unusually fast (expedited) or unusually slow (RFE) approvals. 

 

Also, why are some people not processed at the Chicago office?  What's the significance of that? 

 

Thanks.

 

I'm just really anxious to try to squeeze in a vacation in before my wife gets too pregnant to fly.  Because once the baby is born I'm probably grounded for quite a while. 

Edited January 5, 2020 by jaysaldi

[geowrian 22,338]

10 minutes ago, jaysaldi said:

I considered that, but that methodology assumes everyone updates their timeline promptly when they get approved. I'm sure many people don't. 

If it is factored into the desired percentage cutoff point, it's not a big issue IMO.

 

10 minutes ago, jaysaldi said:

That's why I thought the better methodology is just to look at the most recent 20 or 50 or 100 approvals that are reported and then count the number of days for each from NOA1 and average them, or better yet, choose the median, which tosses out the unusually fast (expedited) or unusually slow (RFE) approvals. 

But most recent does not equate to an average or typical timeframe. As noted, it's not unusual to see a set of applications processed around the same time that are not representative of the typical case. This happens both due to the nature of it being a random sampling ("clumping" effect) as well as how USCIS handles cases...which is more akin to hundreds of registers at a supermarket than a single queue. Sometimes one lane will go very quickly whereas the others may have delays. You don't know if you actually got a faster or slow lane until after you've checked out.

 

Either way, it was just something to consider while passing the time...as noted, there is no way at all to predict the timeline of any particular case.

 

10 minutes ago, jaysaldi said:

Also, why are some people not processed at the Chicago office?  What's the significance of that? 

EADs due to family-based AOS applications should be handled at the NBC. Some people enter incorrect data. They don't know what NBC is or the workflow of the I-485 + dependent applications.

There are EADs issued due to other circumstances, which may be handled elsewhere.

 

10 minutes ago, jaysaldi said:

I'm just really anxious to try to squeeze in a vacation in before my wife gets too pregnant to fly.  Because once the baby is born I'm probably grounded for quite a while. 

Good luck!

[jaysaldi 213]

On 1/5/2020 at 3:46 PM, geowrian said:

If it is factored into the desired percentage cutoff point, it's not a big issue IMO.

 

But most recent does not equate to an average or typical timeframe. As noted, it's not unusual to see a set of applications processed around the same time that are not representative of the typical case. This happens both due to the nature of it being a random sampling ("clumping" effect) as well as how USCIS handles cases...which is more akin to hundreds of registers at a supermarket than a single queue. Sometimes one lane will go very quickly whereas the others may have delays. You don't know if you actually got a faster or slow lane until after you've checked out.

 

Either way, it was just something to consider while passing the time...as noted, there is no way at all to predict the timeline of any particular case.

 

EADs due to family-based AOS applications should be handled at the NBC. Some people enter incorrect data. They don't know what NBC is or the workflow of the I-485 + dependent applications.

There are EADs issued due to other circumstances, which may be handled elsewhere.

 

Good luck!

Does the local USCIS I will interview at (Las Vegas) have any bearing on how fast the AP may be issued? Las Vegas seems to be a slower than normal office for I-485 approvals. Does that affect the speed of AP processing? I completed the biometrics there within a month of NOA, which seems pretty normal.

[SalishSea 18,125]

1 hour ago, jaysaldi said:

Does the local USCIS I will interview at (Las Vegas) have any bearing on how fast the AP may be issued? Las Vegas seems to be a slower than normal office for I-485 approvals. Does that affect the speed of AP processing? I completed the biometrics there within a month of NOA, which seems pretty normal.

No.  AP/EAD are processed through the National Benefits Center in Missouri.

Edited January 16, 2020 by Jorgedig