A Question about the AP approval timelines and traveling after AP approval but before receipt of card in the mail

[jaysaldi 213]

I submitted my wife's I-485 petition to adjust status from K-1 fiance to permanent resident on November 14. Also applied for AP and EAD on the same date. The NOA1 date is November 21.

 

When I click on "processing times" on the bar on top of the screen it says petitions with NOA dates of August 20 are currently being processed.  Roughly 135 days ago.

 

Then when I click through to timelines stats it says 150 days on average between NOA and approval: https://www.visajourney.com/timeline/apstats.php

 

But when I click on immigration timelines and sort by approval date, it shows that many/most of the approvals that posters have confirmed in December and January had NOA1 dates about 100-110 days earlier:

 

https://www.visajourney.com/timeline/aplist.php?cfl=0&op1=app&op2=d&op4=1&op5=3,6,9,10

 

I know that average means average, nothing can be predicted, etc. but is it reasonable for me to look at these timelines and estimate that we may get an approval of AP around March 1-10 (within 110-120 days)?  Do the 150 day "average"  numbers include people with unusual delays and RFEs that skew the numbers too high and is 110-120 days a better estimate unless there is a snag in the process?

 

Does our applying for EAD with AP as part of an I-485 AoS speed up or slow down the AP approval process or have no effect?

 

My second question is "What are the pitfalls/risks of her traveling after we get notified of AP approval but before we have the card in hand?" Are there horror stories about that? We could have a neighbor fish the card out of our mail and Fedex it to us abroad. That does present the risk of card lost in the mail to us, lost by international Fedex, etc.  I'm also worried about what happens if she leaves the USA and the AP card arrives but has her name wrong, or is otherwise screwed up such that she can't return to the USA.

 

Is it common to people to travel before getting the AP card in hand or is this not recommended?

 

We are anxious for her to visit her home country (Cambodia) as soon as she can because she is currently three months pregnant and wants to leave and come back before it becomes uncomfortable or ill-advised for her to travel.  So getting the card in mid March vs. mid April may make all the difference.

 

Thanks

 

 

 

 

[Crazy Cat 41,850]

11 minutes ago, jaysaldi said:

Does our applying for EAD with AP as part of an I-485 AoS speed up or slow down the AP approval process or have no effect?

No effect...

11 minutes ago, jaysaldi said:

Is it common to people to travel before getting the AP card in hand or is this not recommended?

I would wait until I had the card in hand......

[geowrian 22,337]

23 minutes ago, jaysaldi said:

When I click on "processing times" on the bar on top of the screen it says petitions with NOA dates of August 20 are currently being processed.  Roughly 135 days ago.

I-485, I-131, and I-765 are applications, not petitions.

Kinda pedantic, but  I wanted to clarify.

 

Quote

I know that average means average, nothing can be predicted, etc. but is it reasonable for me to look at these timelines and estimate that we may get an approval of AP around March 1-10 (within 110-120 days)?  Do the 150 day "average"  numbers include people with unusual delays and RFEs that skew the numbers too high and is 110-120 days a better estimate unless there is a snag in the process?

I would be hopeful for ~4 months but expect longer. Trying to set expectations on a single case is a recipe for disappointment.

 

Quote

Does our applying for EAD with AP as part of an I-485 AoS speed up or slow down the AP approval process or have no effect?

No impact.

 

Quote

My second question is "What are the pitfalls/risks of her traveling after we get notified of AP approval but before we have the card in hand?" Are there horror stories about that? We could have a neighbor fish the card out of our mail and Fedex it to us abroad. That does present the risk of card lost in the mail to us, lost by international Fedex, etc.  I'm also worried about what happens if she leaves the USA and the AP card arrives but has her name wrong, or is otherwise screwed up such that she can't return to the USA.

Technically you can leave after approval. The physical card is not required at the time you leave the country.

That said, unless there is an absolute emergency (like a funeral for a close family member?), I would never suggest doing so. There are risks like you noted that the card never makes it to you abroad, has errors, etc.

Just wait for the card to arrive. That's usually within a week or 2 of approval. There is no good reason to have plans to travel abroad before having the card in hand.

 

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Is it common to people to travel before getting the AP card in hand or is this not recommended?

Not recommended, by far.

Edited January 4, 2020 by geowrian

[SalishSea 17,829]

24 minutes ago, jaysaldi said:

I know that average means average, nothing can be predicted, etc. but is it reasonable for me to look at these timelines and estimate that we may get an approval of AP around March 1-10 (within 110-120 days)? 

Unlikely.  Last year, ours took only 135 days, and we were by far faster than most in our group here on VJ. While I129F processing times are faster now, processing times for AOS/AP/EAD have increased since we filed.  It is one of the major pitfalls of the K-1, often overlooked by folks who focus only on the few months earlier they can be together vs a CR-1.

[Crazy Cat 41,850]

29 minutes ago, jaysaldi said:

Is it common to people to travel before getting the AP card in hand or is this not recommended?

I want to add that there are actual cases here on VJ of people being stranded outside the US after losing advance parole documents.  It's a big, big risk...especially if the country's mail/parcel system is questionable  (I know nothing of Cambodia).....

[jaysaldi 213]

7 minutes ago, Jorgedig said:

Unlikely.  Last year, ours took only 135 days, and we were by far faster than most in our group here on VJ. 

But if you look at the most recent thirty AP approvals posted in the timeline, most are within about 105 days of NOA1:

 

https://www.visajourney.com/timeline/aplist.php?cfl=0&op1=app&op2=&op3=&op4=1&op5=3,6,9,10&op6=&op8=

 

2 minutes ago, missileman said:

I want to add that there are actual cases here on VJ of people being stranded outside the US after losing advance parole documents.  It's a big, big risk...especially if the country's mail/parcel system is questionable  (I know nothing of Cambodia).....

Ah, that's what I need to read, the horror stories. Do you happen to have any links readily available?

Edited January 4, 2020 by jaysaldi

[Crazy Cat 41,850]

2 minutes ago, jaysaldi said:

But if you look at the most recent thirty AP approvals posted in the timeline, most are within about 105 days of NOA1:

 

https://www.visajourney.com/timeline/aplist.php?cfl=0&op1=app&op2=&op3=&op4=1&op5=3,6,9,10&op6=&op8=

 

Ah, that's what I need to read, the horror stories. Do you happen to have any links readily available?

Here is one.....You can find others by searching this web site for "stranded".

 

 

[geowrian 22,337]

4 minutes ago, jaysaldi said:

But if you look at the most recent twenty approvals posted in the timeline, most are within about 105 days of NOA1.  

 

https://www.visajourney.com/timeline/aplist.php?cfl=0&op1=app&op2=&op3=&op4=1&op5=3,6,9,10&op6=&op8=

If you go back just a bit further in that list (mid dec. approvals), most took 4-6 months.

[SalishSea 17,829]

3 minutes ago, jaysaldi said:

But if you look at the most recent thirty AP approvals posted in the timeline, most are within about 105 days of NOA1:

 

https://www.visajourney.com/timeline/aplist.php?cfl=0&op1=app&op2=&op3=&op4=1&op5=3,6,9,10&op6=&op8=

 

Ah, that's what I need to read, the horror stories. Do you happen to have any links readily available?

You do realize that VJ data is not "official" in any way?  Plus, Igor's list doesn't allow for info on expedites, etc.  USCIS lists the processing time as 5.5 to 7.5 months.  You will be very lucky if it actually takes 4 months.

[ineedadisplayname 497]

19 hours ago, jaysaldi said:

"What are the pitfalls/risks of her traveling after we get notified of AP approval but before we have the card in hand?"

Probably you can wait a week to travel after approval, so you would have the card in hand.... That would be the safest I think...

What if it has a misspelled name on it? Or wrong expiration date, etc and you are out of the country?

[jaysaldi 213]

20 hours ago, Jorgedig said:

You do realize that VJ data is not "official" in any way?  Plus, Igor's list doesn't allow for info on expedites, etc.  USCIS lists the processing time as 5.5 to 7.5 months.  You will be very lucky if it actually takes 4 months.

Yes, I realize it's not official but is there any reason to believe people on VJ are falsifying their timelines?  And assuming people are telling the truth, wouldn't these timelines be a more accurate estimate of how long AP approvals are taking than the government estimate of "5.5 to 7 months"?

 

 

[SalishSea 17,829]

2 hours ago, jaysaldi said:

Yes, I realize it's not official but is there any reason to believe people on VJ are falsifying their timelines?  And assuming people are telling the truth, wouldn't these timelines be a more accurate estimate of how long AP approvals are taking than the government estimate of "5.5 to 7 months"?

 

 

I didn’t say anything about falsified info.  
 

My point is that the ‘data’ doesn’t reflect averages.  Maybe a handful of VJ members who got their cards at 105 days have reported it now.  But what about the folks still waiting who won’t get theirs for another 75 days?

 

See what I mean?  USCIS works on averages.  With their productivity goals, they have no incentive to under-report processing times.  Processing times are fluid and updated regularly.

[geowrian 22,337]

1 hour ago, Jorgedig said:

Maybe a handful of VJ members who got their cards at 105 days have reported it now.  But what about the folks still waiting who won’t get theirs for another 75 days?

Bingo. You always get data about the people who fall ahead of the average sooner than those who fall at or behind the average.

Say there are 100 people in a sample who filed on the exact same day. If 20 of them report getting approved at an average of 100 days, does that make the sample's average 100 days? Clearly no. The average might be 160 days and those 20 were just within 1 or 2 standard deviations. There would be no way to know - or even make a reasonable estimate - the average after only 20 people reported their results.

Edited January 5, 2020 by geowrian

[jaysaldi 213]

40 minutes ago, geowrian said:

Bingo. You always get data about the people who fall ahead of the average sooner than those who fall at or behind the average.

Say there are 100 people in a sample who filed on the exact same day. If 20 of them report getting approved at an average of 100 days, does that make the sample's average 100 days? Clearly no. The average might be 160 days and those 20 were just within 1 or 2 standard deviations. There would be no way to know - or even make a reasonable estimate - the average after only 20 people reported their results.

 

1 hour ago, Jorgedig said:

I didn’t say anything about falsified info.  
 

My point is that the ‘data’ doesn’t reflect averages.  Maybe a handful of VJ members who got their cards at 105 days have reported it now.  But what about the folks still waiting who won’t get theirs for another 75 days?

 

See what I mean?  USCIS works on averages.  With their productivity goals, they have no incentive to under-report processing times.  Processing times are fluid and updated regularly.

But under this logic, the approvals reported in late December and early January should  be mostly from people with NOA1s from June-August, with only a "handful" from September. That's not what the timeline stats are showing. The majority of the recent approvals are from posters with NOA1s in September who got approved in less than four months.

[Crazy Cat 41,850]

18 minutes ago, jaysaldi said:

 

But under this logic, the approvals reported in late December and early January should  be mostly from people with NOA1s from June-August, with only a "handful" from September. That's not what the timeline stats are showing. The majority of the recent approvals are from posters with NOA1s in September who got approved in less than four months.

Sample size is important.......that was the point.

Edited January 5, 2020 by missileman