CITIZEN SIBLING PETITION CASE IOE

[malaga310 4]

WHAY ALL NEW ELECTRONIC CASES (IOE) OF CITIZEN SIBLING PETITION ARE GOING TO CALIFORNIA SERVICE CENTER??? WHY THEY ARE NOT GOING TO TEXAS, NEBRASKA OR POTOMAC?... 

 

THANK YOU IN ADVANCE

[geowrian 22,337]

Most, if not all, family preference cases are sent to CSC.

Not that it matters what service center you get. The Priority Date (PD) will almost certainly be the determining factor of how long the case takes to get an interview, not I-130 processing time.

[malaga310 4]

11 minutes ago, geowrian said:

Most, if not all, family preference cases are sent to CSC.

Not that it matters what service center you get. The Priority Date (PD) will almost certainly be the determining factor of how long the case takes to get an interview, not I-130 processing time.

I'm citizen and submitted a petition for my mom and went to Nebraska, now I'm submitting for my bothers and seeing are going to CSC which processing time is too long, but now I see you say I-130 processing time is not a factor the case takes to get an interview, PD is 02 November 2019... how do we know how long it will take to be approved?

[geowrian 22,337]

10 minutes ago, malaga310 said:

I'm citizen and submitted a petition for my mom and went to Nebraska, now I'm submitting for my bothers and seeing are going to CSC which processing time is too long, but now I see you say I-130 processing time is not a factor the case takes to get an interview, PD is 02 November 2019... how do we know how long it will take to be approved?

That's normal. Filing for your parent is an immediate relative (IR-5 specifically) case w/ a PD that is immediately current. It only has processing time.

Filing for your sibling is a family preference (F4) case w/ a PD that will take ~13-20+ years to become current. You can check the current F4 PD in the Visa bulletin here: https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin.html. People who applied almost 13 years ago are just seeing their PD become current now, and historically the line gets longer.

Edited November 29, 2019 by geowrian

[malaga310 4]

6 minutes ago, geowrian said:

That's normal. Filing for your parent is an immediate relative (IR-5 specifically) case w/ a PD that is immediately current. It only has processing time.

Filing for your sibling is a family preference (F4) case w/ a PD that will take ~13-20+ years to become current. You can check the current F4 PD in the Visa bulletin here: https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin.html. People who applied almost 13 years ago are just seeing their PD become current now, and historically the line gets longer.

By now is that way, yes I know that, but according to the Department of State, that process will change in the next few months, can read on letter E, click here: https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2020/visa-bulletin-for-october-2019.html.

 

Because of that I submitted for my bothers, and have heard that due now cases are electronics with a Pilot Plan the whole process will be faster and all categories will go down... what I see strange is why all sibling petitions are going to CSC... 

[Duke & Marie 1,389]

22 minutes ago, malaga310 said:

I'm citizen and submitted a petition for my mom and went to Nebraska, now I'm submitting for my bothers and seeing are going to CSC which processing time is too long, but now I see you say I-130 processing time is not a factor the case takes to get an interview, PD is 02 November 2019... how do we know how long it will take to be approved?

Your PD will always display nov 2019.. it doesn’t matter how long it takes at USCIS, once the petition is approved it will sit at NVC in line waiting for a visa to become available..

 

NVC will not process it until the your PD becomes current for your category F4 they’re currently processing approved I130 petitions submitted in 2007.. expect to wait maybe 15 years or more...

 

 

[malaga310 4]

2 minutes ago, Duke & Marie said:

Your PD will always display nov 2019.. it doesn’t matter how long it takes at USCIS, once the petition is approved it will sit at NVC in line waiting for a visa to become available..

 

NVC will not process it until the your PD becomes current for your category F4 they’re currently processing approved I130 petitions submitted in 2007.. expect to wait maybe 15 years or more...

 

 

Yes I know that, but according to the Department of State, that process will change in the next few months, can read on letter E, click here: https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2020/visa-bulletin-for-october-2019.html.

[Duke & Marie 1,389]

3 minutes ago, malaga310 said:

By now is that way, yes I know that, but according to the Department of State, that process will change in the next few months, can read on letter E, click here: https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2020/visa-bulletin-for-october-2019.html.

 

Because of that I submitted for my bothers, and have heard that due now cases are electronics with a Pilot Plan the whole process will be faster and all categories will go down... what I see strange is why all sibling petitions are going to CSC... 

Categories will not go down unless they increase intake numbers.. a change to electronic processing at USCIS stage will have no effect on number of actual visas issued.. 

[malaga310 4]

5 minutes ago, Duke & Marie said:

Categories will not go down unless they increase intake numbers.. a change to electronic processing at USCIS stage will have no effect on number of actual visas issued.. 

What does this means of the Department of State here on the Letter E:  https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2020/visa-bulletin-for-october-2019.html. ?

Edited November 29, 2019 by malaga310

[Duke & Marie 1,389]

1 minute ago, malaga310 said:

What this means of the Department of State here on the Letter E:  https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2020/visa-bulletin-for-october-2019.html. ?

Means, they’ll issue 64000 visas per year to people in f4 category... plus any left over visas from the prior 3 categories which is highly unlikely.. 

 

so. It really doesn’t matter how they implement the pilot program.. you’ll still be stuck in the backlog of applications.. unless they raise if from 64000 to a number far higher.. again highly unlikely to happen 

[geowrian 22,337]

11 minutes ago, malaga310 said:

By now is that way, yes I know that, but according to the Department of State, that process will change in the next few months, can read on letter E, click here: https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2020/visa-bulletin-for-october-2019.html.

 

Because of that I submitted for my bothers, and have heard that due now cases are electronics with a Pilot Plan the whole process will be faster and all categories will go down... what I see strange is why all sibling petitions are going to CSC... 

The process is unchanged. That note refers to the estimated progression in the next month, nothing more. It means they expected 6 weeks progression for November 2019.

It would take an act of Congress to change the process. The reason F4 takes so long is because they are limited by the INA in the number of visas available annually. The PD is basically your spot in line. Until those before you get a visa - or are determined ineligible for it - they cannot issue one to your siblings.

 

Certainly no issue in filing the I-130. That starts your spot in line. But changing to the electronic process will have no impact on how long it actually takes to get the visa as it is a quota issue, not a processing one. Electronic processing only stands to impact processing timelines.

[malaga310 4]

11 minutes ago, Duke & Marie said:

Means, they’ll issue 64000 visas per year to people in f4 category... plus any left over visas from the prior 3 categories which is highly unlikely.. 

 

so. It really doesn’t matter how they implement the pilot program.. you’ll still be stuck in the backlog of applications.. unless they raise if from 64000 to a number far higher.. again highly unlikely to happen 

Well, that's what they say: May be they will increase them, they don't say will use any left over visas from the prior 3 categories here, I don't see that, what I see is this:

 

FAMILY-sponsored categories (potential monthly movement)

F1:  Up to two months 
F2A: CURRENT, corrective action should be expected by February
F2B: Up to six weeks
F3:  Up to one month
F4:  Up to six weeks

 

Edited November 29, 2019 by malaga310

[geowrian 22,337]

20 minutes ago, malaga310 said:

Well, that's what they say: May be they will increase them, they don't say will use any left over visas from the prior 3 categories here, I don's see that, what I see is this:

 

FAMILY-sponsored categories (potential monthly movement)

F1:  Up to two months 
F2A: CURRENT, corrective action should be expected by February
F2B: Up to six weeks
F3:  Up to one month
F4:  Up to six weeks

 

They always make more visas available to a category if there are any leftover from another category. They don't let the annual limits go to waste.

 

Yes. "Potential monthly movement" = how much they estimate the category will move by the time the next monthly visa bulletin is released. In this case, they expected 6 weeks of movement in the ~4.25 weeks between months. Some months it will proceed less than that. Some months it will even regress (negative movement). It all depends on how many people in that category actually get a visa vs their predictions.

 

You can see a historical view of the F4 category movement here: https://www.myprioritydate.com/

Quote

Fiscal Year: 2013 - actual progress: 4.53 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2014 - actual progress: 5.43 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2015 - actual progress: 12.63 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2016 - actual progress: 8.87 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2017 - actual progress: -21.5 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2018 - actual progress: 36.77 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2019 - actual progress: 22.07 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2020 - actual progress: 3.07 month(s)

Average from FY13-FY19: 9.8 months progression annually. This means the category advanced just under 10 months over a 12 month period - meaning the backlog grew by ~2 months per year. Over 13 years at that average rate, that adds ~2 years of additional wait.

F4 also tends to move at very quick and slow paces, as you can see above - sometimes only a few months a year and sometimes years at a time. But the average is what I would look at to have even a basic idea of an estimate of how long it will take. And who knows what will happen in those ~15 years.

 

NOTE: I neglected FY20 above on purpose: FY20 only includes Oct + Nov 2019. Fiscal years start on Oct. 1st.

Edited November 29, 2019 by geowrian

[Duke & Marie 1,389]

9 minutes ago, malaga310 said:

Well, that's what they say: May be they will increase them, they don't say will use any left over visas from the prior 3 categories here, I don't see that, what I see is this:

 

FAMILY-sponsored categories (potential monthly movement)

F1:  Up to two months 
F2A: CURRENT, corrective action should be expected by February
F2B: Up to six weeks
F3:  Up to one month
F4:  Up to six weeks

 

annual intake

 

Fourth: (F4) Brothers and Sisters of Adult U.S. Citizens: 65,000, plus any numbers not required by first three preferences.

[Boiler 44,982]

The complicating issue is this is not a static or even close to static situation. So looking at past trends is the only real data you have as they do not publish the number of applicants and if they did who knows how many each application would produce, if they would still be alive etc etc by the time the PD becomes current. If you had a full data set you might be able to make some assumptions that would be reasonable.

 

It seems both logical and reflects what is actually happening is that there is an ever increasing number of applications and with a finite number issued then the wait can only increase.

 

My guess would be c 2040 but whenever it is no time soon so file it away and take a view when it becomes current, a lot can change in that sort of period.