August Bulletin Retrogression for ROW EB visas

[fs2439 46]

1 minute ago, Richard Purves said:

From July 2016 to October 2017 ... just over a year's jump. That's not bad, but the new allocation will be telling for October.

 

My own PD is April 2017 so I'm suddenly back in the game again.

Congratulations!!

[designguy 1,179]

1 minute ago, Richard Purves said:

From July 2016 to October 2017 ... just over a year's jump. That's not bad, but the new allocation will be telling for October.

 

My own PD is April 2017 so I'm suddenly back in the game again.

Oh nice! I'll keep my fingers crossed for you

[randomstairs 303]

These retrogressions happen almost every Aug or Sep for ROW. It's normal and nothing to be concerned about (end of fiscal year). Oct 1st it'll be back at current for ROW EB2/3.  

[fs2439 46]

6 hours ago, randomstairs said:

These retrogressions happen almost every Aug or Sep for ROW. It's normal and nothing to be concerned about (end of fiscal year). Oct 1st it'll be back at current for ROW EB2/3.  

I would normally agree with you, but this is exactly what happened to eb1 last year. It was backlogged around this time of year and then never went back to being current since. Hopefully you are right though

[randomstairs 303]

On 8/16/2019 at 4:55 AM, fs2439 said:

I would normally agree with you, but this is exactly what happened to eb1 last year. It was backlogged around this time of year and then never went back to being current since. Hopefully you are right though

EB1 is a different animal altogether. EB1C is an avenue for those stuck in the EB2/3 "backlog" to become current. So the demand is extremely high which is why the dates are retrogressing. EB2 doesn't have that issue so it will almost certainly become current on Oct 1st, as it always does. 

[fs2439 46]

3 hours ago, randomstairs said:

EB1 is a different animal altogether. EB1C is an avenue for those stuck in the EB2/3 "backlog" to become current. So the demand is extremely high which is why the dates are retrogressing. EB2 doesn't have that issue so it will almost certainly become current on Oct 1st, as it always does. 

😍thanks for the explanation! I didn't know any of that

[designguy 1,179]

7 hours ago, randomstairs said:

EB1 is a different animal altogether. EB1C is an avenue for those stuck in the EB2/3 "backlog" to become current. So the demand is extremely high which is why the dates are retrogressing. EB2 doesn't have that issue so it will almost certainly become current on Oct 1st, as it always does. 

Keeping my fingers crossed this happens!

[designguy 1,179]

Doesn't look TOOO optimistic for October...

https://www.shusterman.com/visa-bulletin-predictions/

[SusieQQQ 11,586]

On 8/19/2019 at 10:57 PM, randomstairs said:

EB1 is a different animal altogether. EB1C is an avenue for those stuck in the EB2/3 "backlog" to become current. So the demand is extremely high which is why the dates are retrogressing. EB2 doesn't have that issue so it will almost certainly become current on Oct 1st, as it always does. 

I don't know anything about this, but this explanation doesn't seem to add up to me: if EB1 is backlogged as a result of people trying to move out of the EB2 backlog... why will only EB1 remain stuck but not EB2?

[randomstairs 303]

9 hours ago, SusieQQQ said:

I don't know anything about this, but this explanation doesn't seem to add up to me: if EB1 is backlogged as a result of people trying to move out of the EB2 backlog... why will only EB1 remain stuck but not EB2?

Because there is a per-country cap for EB2 (but not EB1), which is resulting in those born in India to face a 10+ year backlog. That's not the case for EB1 where the backlog is "only" a few years. So those Indians who can switch to EB1 (almost always EB1C) will do it, causing and facing the shorter backlog. For EB2 the per-country limits allow those from other countries (Rest of World - ROW) to stand in separate lines from the extremely long Indian backlog, which is why EB2 is even faster for ROW applicants than EB1. Hope that helps.  

Edited August 22, 2019 by randomstairs

[designguy 1,179]

17 hours ago, randomstairs said:

Because there is a per-country cap for EB2 (but not EB1), which is resulting in those born in India to face a 10+ year backlog. That's not the case for EB1 where the backlog is "only" a few years. So those Indians who can switch to EB1 (almost always EB1C) will do it, causing and facing the shorter backlog. For EB2 the per-country limits allow those from other countries (Rest of World - ROW) to stand in separate lines from the extremely long Indian backlog, which is why EB2 is even faster for ROW applicants than EB1. Hope that helps.  

Can you show where it states there is no per-country cap for EB1 as the visa bulletin sorts the EB1 into different chargeability areas just like all other EB visas?

[fs2439 46]

On 8/21/2019 at 2:01 PM, SusieQQQ said:

I don't know anything about this, but this explanation doesn't seem to add up to me: if EB1 is backlogged as a result of people trying to move out of the EB2 backlog... why will only EB1 remain stuck but not EB2?

Yeah i agree, it doesn't necessarily make sense but i like it, because it's beneficial to me so that's a start. Lol. Oppenheimer article is also optimistic for eb2 row, so we'll see

Edited August 23, 2019 by fs2439

[fs2439 46]

20 hours ago, randomstairs said:

Because there is a per-country cap for EB2 (but not EB1), which is resulting in those born in India to face a 10+ year backlog. That's not the case for EB1 where the backlog is "only" a few years. So those Indians who can switch to EB1 (almost always EB1C) will do it, causing and facing the shorter backlog. For EB2 the per-country limits allow those from other countries (Rest of World - ROW) to stand in separate lines from the extremely long Indian backlog, which is why EB2 is even faster for ROW applicants than EB1. Hope that helps.  

Gottcha

 

Complex and confusing reasoning.

 

Also, i think each category has a designated percentage. But eb1 folks could downgrade to en2 and keep their priority date, right?

Edited August 23, 2019 by fs2439

[fs2439 46]

20 hours ago, randomstairs said:

Because there is a per-country cap for EB2 (but not EB1), which is resulting in those born in India to face a 10+ year backlog. That's not the case for EB1 where the backlog is "only" a few years. So those Indians who can switch to EB1 (almost always EB1C) will do it, causing and facing the shorter backlog. For EB2 the per-country limits allow those from other countries (Rest of World - ROW) to stand in separate lines from the extremely long Indian backlog, which is why EB2 is even faster for ROW applicants than EB1. Hope that helps.  

Huh, just reviewed the bulletin again. Eb2 has better dates than eb1 across the board. Eb1 is unavailable gor indians!

[designguy 1,179]

7 hours ago, fs2439 said:

Gottcha

 

Complex and confusing reasoning.

 

Also, i think each category has a designated percentage. But eb1 folks could downgrade to en2 and keep their priority date, right?

I don’t think so. EB2 requires a perm and EB1 doesn’t. So you can move up to EB1 from EB2  but if you try and go down you would first need a perm. I think...