USCIS just published the 1st Quarter and no sign of accelerating the backlog of I 751 at all...

[xillini 71]

Deleted

Edited April 26, 2019 by xillini

[millefleur 5,046]

11 minutes ago, xillini said:

Additionally, after this year, since 2020 is another presidential election, there will be surges of N400 cases filing regardless of election results, and N400 is in priority over I 751. 

Totally agree that there could be an uptick in N-400 requests with the election coming up next year.

 

Although, technically, aren't ROC cases handled by service centers, whereas N-400's are handled by local offices...so in theory there shouldn't be that much overlap between the two? I was under the impression that the service center would approve the I-751, and then the N-400 would be processed locally and that they are two separate processes?

[iceclub 33]

14 hours ago, xillini said:

I agree that this is glass half full kind of way, but I don't agree that the increased processing # of cases will result in improving backlogs. 

They receive 45,000 new cases and 45,000 cases processed, meaning that the backlog is still out there and the same amount of waiting time is expected. 

Additionally, after this year, since 2020 is another presidential election, there will be surges of N400 cases filing regardless of election results, and N400 is in priority over I 751. 

 

Given that current processing timeline of N400 is in average 11 months across the country, and in order to vote, you have to be registered at least by Summer, the N400 surges may start soon in any time. Additionally, as mentioned in other posts, purges of DHS under current administration and uncertain political climates are sure enough to ensure I 751 is the least thing to do since conditional permanent resident has the same right as any other permanent resident except that in reality not everyone has same immigration knowledge as much as USCIS. 

 

I am sure some of N400 and I 751 are concurrently approved and therefore some of 45,000 processed I 751 has duplicated numbers, meaning that in fact the pure I 751 adjucated cases are lower than what it is if we subtract the concurrent adjucation of N400 and I 751. For instance, there is no data of how many N400 and I 751 are concurrently adjucated. But, if we reasonably assume roughly 5,000 of I 751 cases are concurrently adjucated with N400, then in fact, only 40,000 I 751 are adjucated when, in fact, USCIS receives 45,000 new I 751 per each quarter, resulting in 5000 cases backlogged again. 

 

Truth to be told, I am more likely to be focusing on negative sides since part of my professional life is all about worst case scenarios (i.e: with 0.001% of side effects for drug, and legal complaints filed by one angry consumer can get my work life in a big mess), so I am not optimistic on this matter, but sure, it is fair to say it is kind of glass half. 

 

Xillini the backlog is what it is. 45K processing is still almost double the cases handled compared to 23K per quarter last year. Since the backlog is around 250K, it will take them a bit over 1.25 years to process 250K. At 23K it would take them twice that,  over 2.5 years. You're right during that time we'll get an additional 250K cases if we continue to see people applying at the same rate, but the process still benefits from having additional processing. I don't think 1.25 years is as big of a burden for ROC since we already have status. I had to wait two years for my AOS, a long AOS wait does create problems for people and in that case a quicker adjudication I think is really needed.

[xillini 71]

On 4/25/2019 at 8:29 PM, millefleur said:

 

Although, technically, aren't ROC cases handled by service centers, whereas N-400's are handled by local offices...so in theory there shouldn't be that much overlap between the two? I was under the impression that the service center would approve the I-751, and then the N-400 would be processed locally and that they are two separate processes?

So it is hard to answer your question since I am not a statistician in USCIS

 

Let's say A has pending I 751 and decided to apply N400, upon which A is approved. 

There can be two ways to reflect the number in the statistics upon approval

1) The number of total approval in I 751 is added as well as N400.

2) They take this concurrent approval as 1 case approved only in I 751. 

 

I am quite sure when statistics is measured, concurrent approval would be adding 1 case approved in both I 751 and N400 like 1). 

 

So technically, even though N400 is approved by local offices, which forces I 751 approved in local offices with senior ISO who completed I 751 training materials and therefore has authorizations to approve or deny (which is why sometimes you see a posting that N400 is passed, and ISO is like "oh well I see I 751 pending, and I have to ask this to my supervisor to approve this"), or these days USCIS is more familiar with concurrent I751 and N400 approvals, and therefore when they schedule N400 interviews, the applicant is interviewed by ISO who has authorization to approve I 751 to avoid technical issues. 

 

So what I am saying here is even though 1st quarter of 2019 has 45,000 approval for I 751, if we reasonably assume that 20% of I 751 is approved concurrently with N400 due to average more than 1 year, since N400 forces to adjucate pending I751, in fact, the number of I 751 cases that service center processes is only 80% of 45,000 cases, which is actually 36,000 cases by both CSC/VSC/ (Not to mention the all fiasco that USCIS transfers workload balances here and there)

 

This is different story as compared to USCIS's 2013's 3rd and 4th quarter that more than 60,000 I 751 was able to be processed per each quarter when the waiting time is less than 8 months. That is, majority of approval in I 751 is 2013's 3rd and 4th quarter is not concurrently adjucated since most of I 751 filers were not eligible for N400 yet. 

(just remind if waiting time is 8 months for I 751, and most of Conditional Permanent Resident is not eligible for N400 yet). 

 

[xillini 71]

21 hours ago, iceclub said:

Xillini the backlog is what it is. 45K processing is still almost double the cases handled compared to 23K per quarter last year. Since the backlog is around 250K, it will take them a bit over 1.25 years to process 250K. At 23K it would take them twice that,  over 2.5 years. You're right during that time we'll get an additional 250K cases if we continue to see people applying at the same rate, but the process still benefits from having additional processing. I don't think 1.25 years is as big of a burden for ROC since we already have status. I had to wait two years for my AOS, a long AOS wait does create problems for people and in that case a quicker adjudication I think is really needed.

With due respects, I think it is more like philosophical differences. 

 

Conditional Permanent Resident already has a status, but like I was mentioning, not everyone has same knowledge in terms of immigration as much as USCIS does, which creates a big issues when it comes to everyone's daily life such as employment change, travel, financial uncertainty, and even marital changes.

Yes, theoretically, ROC applicant has a status, but again, not everyone understand immigration laws in regards to I 751 unless USCIS issues green card without expiration date (like they used to) for even conditional permanent resident, which I know that they will never consider this again. 

 

And plus, it is not ROC applicants' business to worry about AoS applicants' business. That is something that USCIS has to work on to improve their best service and available resources, not ROC applicants burden to share together. If ROC applicants share the burden with AoS, this logic should go all the way to "how about illegal immigrants passing borders?" "how about DACA applicants?" and anything related to controversial immigration topics, which is nothing about ROC applicants' business, but polticians and USCIS's burden in coordination with any immigration related agency. 

[Burnpro23 37]

It pisses me off that we pay these high fees and uscis is a disaster of organization. We shouldn't have to wait this long unless we were capped by visas quotas.

[dwheels76 5,468]

Lord have mercy just got a notification email of I751 estimate. It just jumped from August 2019 to February 2020.

What the heck happened?

Houston we have a problem!!🤬

[Shiran 1,134]

https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/DHS Annual Report 2018.pdf

 

Found this to be somewhat interesting. 

[xillini 71]

USCIS published 2nd quarter (JAN-FEB-MAR) 2019, where I 751 shows significant increaseing numbers of approval/denials.

So that is good news. 

 

Specifically, USCIS approved 53000 cases per 2nd quarter as opposed to 43000 cases. However, please note that this increasing numbers may result from concurrent adjudication N400/I751, meaning that due to more than 1 year waiting time, many I 751 filers apply to N400 and in N400 interview, many of I751 filers are approved. 

I do not believe USCIS's statistics is that much confined to separate I751 from N400/I751 concurrent approval. 

 

But let's give a credit to USCIS on I751 backlog. It did really start to work on it. I noticed waiting time has been better as opposed to last year. If USCIS keeps processing I 751, eventually I think the waiting time can be around 1 year. 

[dilip 187]

On 6/28/2019 at 9:18 PM, xillini said:

USCIS published 2nd quarter (JAN-FEB-MAR) 2019, where I 751 shows significant increaseing numbers of approval/denials.

So that is good news. 

 

Specifically, USCIS approved 53000 cases per 2nd quarter as opposed to 43000 cases. However, please note that this increasing numbers may result from concurrent adjudication N400/I751, meaning that due to more than 1 year waiting time, many I 751 filers apply to N400 and in N400 interview, many of I751 filers are approved. 

I do not believe USCIS's statistics is that much confined to separate I751 from N400/I751 concurrent approval. 

 

But let's give a credit to USCIS on I751 backlog. It did really start to work on it. I noticed waiting time has been better as opposed to last year. If USCIS keeps processing I 751, eventually I think the waiting time can be around 1 year. 

I applied N-400 while I-751 is still pending,  Passed N-400 interview, but decision could not be made due to pending I-751 and  I-751 was discussed during N-400 interview.  Now waiting time.