USCIS just published the 1st Quarter and no sign of accelerating the backlog of I 751 at all...

[Shiran 1,134]

To be honest, I am not all surprised to see low denial for marriage based visas. I do not think there is significant overlap in Venn diagram between "People committing immigration fraud and caught doing it" and "People willing to commit to sham marriage for 2-3 years after jumping through a year of hoops before even getting into the country" The idea of significant marriage based immigration fraud is a convenient scapegoat. 

[Cryssiekins 976]

1 hour ago, millefleur said:

I'm just really shocked by how low that denial rate is. I assumed the reason we all had to do ROC was because fraud was rampant with marriage based visas, well, according to that number, it's not. I would've guess at least a 10% denial rate or higher. Either they are just approving everyone willy nilly and just assume the majority of the cases look OK...or the reality is that fraud via marriage visas just isn't that high and they need to shift their fraud catching attention elsewhere.

 

Logically though, I feel like marriage based visas are the easiest, quickest, and cheapest (using those words loosely since nothing is easy, fast, or cheap) way to get to the US for someone who’s priority is a green card in the US.  

 

I know 2 years doesn’t seem like a long time for someone with a long con, but I can tell you, I love every single bit of my husband.  He is my best friend and the only person in the world I am completely open and comfortable with (even more than my mom!), and these 2.5 years of marriage have been the hardest thing I have ever done in my life.  If my heart wasn’t 100% in it, I wouldn’t be able to

do it.  Even the fraudiest fraudster is still a human at the end of the day, I can’t see them sticking it out the 2 years to even get to a joint ROC filing.  

 

In my opinion, they definitely need to shift the fraud detection to the front end of processes.  The longer someone is here, the likelihood of fraud decreases.  Again, just my opinion, but I would have gladly waited 18-24 months for a K1 visa and

forego this ridiculous ROC filing, than to sit in limbo with a piece of paper while I wait for someone to go through our bank statements and see we pay a lot of bills and that’s about it.  

 

[theresaL 408]

25 minutes ago, Shiran said:

To be honest, I am not all surprised to see low denial for marriage based visas. I do not think there is significant overlap in Venn diagram between "People committing immigration fraud and caught doing it" and "People willing to commit to sham marriage for 2-3 years after jumping through a year of hoops before even getting into the country" The idea of significant marriage based immigration fraud is a convenient scapegoat. 

and yet we read about it on VJ all the time.

[Shiran 1,134]

Just now, theresaL said:

and yet we read about it on VJ all the time.

Happy people do not come to post in "Effects of immigration on life changes" Also what is posted here are often somewhat one sided stories, often not very comprehensive. Many of the unhappy ones actually do admit it was bona fide marriage. Don't get me wrong, I am not saying there are no such cases at all, it just that there isn't amount significant enough to justify the hassle of RoC hoops. 

[millefleur 5,046]

30 minutes ago, Cryssiekins said:

Even the fraudiest fraudster is still a human at the end of the day, I can’t see them sticking it out the 2 years to even get to a joint ROC filing.

Actually, they do....it happens, they even get through ROC and everything and as soon as they get that sweet, sweet 10 year GC, they bail. I would love to see stats of how common that actually is, but it's probably hard to quantify since it happens after ROC...

[Cryssiekins 976]

2 minutes ago, millefleur said:

Actually, they do....it happens, they even get through ROC and everything and as soon as they get that sweet, sweet 10 year GC, they bail. I would love to see stats of how common that actually is, but it's probably hard to quantify since it happens after ROC...

I agree that you’re correct - for me I just can’t imagine it.  Then again, I didn’t marry for a greencard, so I probably couldn’t understand that kind of desperation.  

 

The stats on how many people divorce after ROC would certainly probably be eye opening.  Also, if they could track how many 10-year gc holders (and perhaps eventual citizens) wind up bringing over a spouse from home that they had a previous relationship with would be of interest.  I’ve read more than a couple stories here about that, and I believe there was a recent-ish article posted about a naturalized citizen being charged and convicted of doing just that.  

 

Every person who abuses the privilege of being able to reunite with a loved one via a marriage based visa makes it worse for all of us doing things by the book and by the heart.

[millefleur 5,046]

7 minutes ago, Cryssiekins said:

Every person who abuses the privilege of being able to reunite with a loved one via a marriage based visa makes it worse for all of us doing things by the book and by the heart.

Yes, it really does. It reminds me of being in grade school when 1 or 2 rowdy kids would act up so the teacher would then punish the entire class as a whole...

[theresaL 408]

Maybe it's just me, but I don't find the ROC process a hassle or jumping thru hoops. I see it as part of an extended vetting process. When the time comes, spouse and I will be going thru the same process with the French immigration system. It is what it is. 

Edited April 24, 2019 by theresaL

[xillini 71]

1 hour ago, missileman said:

The numbers for 1st Quarter FY 2019 clearly show that Removal of Conditions is wasted effort.....I think we should start a campaign to eliminate it completely......

East to understand,

type I error is false positive, where the court make determination that the defendant was criminal when he/she is actually innocent

and Type II error is false negative. where the court fails to arrest the defendant when he/she is actually a criminal. 

 

Which one is more significant and baffling depends on individuals' background and experience. Personally, I believe type I is more serious error than Type II because as a society, there should be some grace to accept this type of errors and should avoid type I error at all costs in lieu of Type II error. However, that is just my personal opinion and majority of Americans are tired of someone pretending victims, meaning that they take Type II errors more serious and baffling. 

Ultimately, I don't think there is absolute correct answers when answering which one is more significant or more tolerant error. 

 

Many immigrants abused the clauses and other exceptional probs to best take advantage of their interests, and US population is just tired of it. 

Additionally, immigration starts to become national security sub-topic, under which there is no reason to take a risk when it comes to national security. 

 

There will be unfair victims due to Type I errors, but I think Americans are switching to ignore the voices and "mind your business if you want to live in US, or just take this inconvenience" attitude. 

 

We live in a world that no one is perfect and everyone makes mistake, and therefore many victims are out there. For instance, part of my professional life deals with side effects of drugs, where the rate of side effect is less than 0.001%. Realistically, the side effect rate less than 0.001% is very great and desirable if we take into account every individual has different medical conditions and different circumstances they prescribed the drug, but that one victim may claim that the drug manufacturers malfunction to produce the drug, and wants big compensations with the court order, for which we are required to provide burden of proof to the court and judges that we did our best due intelligence, and while the side effect is something unfortunate, it is not our responsibilities. It sucks, but just 0.001% can even claim serious requests. While I laugh at this as American Puritanism in my free time, it is what is is, and the reality that I am involved in.

 

Likewise, I believe USCIS does not want to take 0.001% chance since they take it as a national security matter. Of course, realistically, there is no way, but at least, they are expected to commit that they do their best to protect America with immigration regulations and applicable laws. They just can't officially admit "Oh... it was our mistake", because the moment they admit, then the question goes next "why did you adjucate this immigrant who turned out to be a radical terrorist" or "why did you give immigration benefits when there is a history of driving under infleunces. If you didn't give him immigration benefit, my family wouldn't get killed due to his drunk driving" and so-on. 

 

Unfortunately, that is the world we currently live in. 

[millefleur 5,046]

3 hours ago, theresaL said:

Maybe it's just me, but I don't find the ROC process a hassle or jumping thru hoops. I see it as part of an extended vetting process. When the time comes, spouse and I will be going thru the same process with the French immigration system. It is what it is. 

Even if it does capture enough fraudulent cases to justify ROC's existence, I don't understand why USCIS gets more and more thrown at it thanks to ever increasing applications, and yet the processing actually s l o w s  d o w n....this is the worst part that is the most frustrating. USCIS has billions of dollars from fees, what is the excuse I wonder? 🤔

 

I thought maybe the reason it was so slow was because of the high number of fraudsters in the mix, well, according to recent data as we've discussed, it can't be that.

Edited April 24, 2019 by millefleur

[Villanelle 4,122]

The point of ROC and the 2yr conditional card was not so much to catch fraud but to deter fraud. Prior to 1986 amendments all you had to do was marry- file AOS- GC- divorce. Rinse and repeat. In the years after the amendment went into effect the number of marriage cases submitted dropped. Its basically just a second hoop for fraudsters to have to jump through at this point- and the original concept of 'you can marry but you have to wait 2 yrs to get a GC' is laughable at this point. There is no difference between the benefits you get on a conditional card vs a regular 10yr card. You can also still divorce before the 2yrs and get a 10yr card with approved ROC. 

[millefleur 5,046]

1 hour ago, username_taken said:

The point of ROC and the 2yr conditional card was not so much to catch fraud but to deter fraud. Prior to 1986 amendments all you had to do was marry- file AOS- GC- divorce. Rinse and repeat. 

This is a good point. Thanks, I hadn't been looking at it from that perspective....I still think it should be moved to 3 years not 2 though.

 

1 hour ago, username_taken said:

Its basically just a second hoop for fraudsters to have to jump through at this point- and the original concept of 'you can marry but you have to wait 2 yrs to get a GC' is laughable at this point. There is no difference between the benefits you get on a conditional card vs a regular 10yr card. You can also still divorce before the 2yrs and get a 10yr card with approved ROC. 

And that's my problem with it...again, on paper ROC seems like a great idea, but...in reality not so much. It seems genuinely unfair that people come here on work visas and toil away for years hoping to get a GC one day via their employers when fraudsters come over and get a 10 year just because they married and divorced a USC, but they can show "evidence" that the marriage was enter into on "good faith"....extremely hard things to disprove honestly.

Edited April 24, 2019 by millefleur

[JoJoJoJo 170]

On 4/23/2019 at 2:59 PM, millefleur said:

I'm just really shocked by how low that denial rate is. I assumed the reason we all had to do ROC was because fraud was rampant with marriage based visas, well, according to that number, it's not. I would've guess at least a 10% denial rate or higher. Either they are just approving everyone willy nilly and just assume the majority of the cases look OK...or the reality is that fraud via marriage visas just isn't that high and they need to shift their fraud catching attention elsewhere.

 

Hm, not trying argue or taking sides, but just playing the devil's advocate on the low number of denial rate...

• Maybe it is the ROC requirement that discourages potential fraudsters, and hence low denial rate because fraudsters did not try.
• We only know the % of denials, but we do not know out of actual fraud cases, what is the % that USCIS is able to deny. So it could be a lack of scrutiny rather than too much.

 

 

[Burnpro23 37]

I'm looking at these stats with the glass half full kind of way. FY18Q1 had 42,913 submissions with only 23,402 approvals and 1,342 denials and has been getting better ever since to the point that now there is a deficit of only 406 cases. If they keep up the pace we will see a decline of the processing times in the upcoming months.

 

Here is the link for fy18q4 that includes the full year: https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Resources/Reports and Studies/Immigration Forms Data/All Form Types/Quarterly_All_Forms_FY18Q4.pdf

Edited April 25, 2019 by Burnpro23

[xillini 71]

I agree that this is glass half full kind of way, but I don't agree that the increased processing # of cases will result in improving backlogs. 

They receive 45,000 new cases and 45,000 cases processed, meaning that the backlog is still out there and the same amount of waiting time is expected. 

Additionally, after this year, since 2020 is another presidential election, there will be surges of N400 cases filing regardless of election results, and N400 is in priority over I 751. 

 

Given that current processing timeline of N400 is in average 11 months across the country, and in order to vote, you have to be registered at least by Summer, the N400 surges may start soon in any time. Additionally, as mentioned in other posts, purges of DHS under current administration and uncertain political climates are sure enough to ensure I 751 is the least thing to do since conditional permanent resident has the same right as any other permanent resident except that in reality not everyone has same immigration knowledge as much as USCIS. 

 

I am sure some of N400 and I 751 are concurrently approved and therefore some of 45,000 processed I 751 has duplicated numbers, meaning that in fact the pure I 751 adjucated cases are lower than what it is if we subtract the concurrent adjucation of N400 and I 751. For instance, there is no data of how many N400 and I 751 are concurrently adjucated. But, if we reasonably assume roughly 5,000 of I 751 cases are concurrently adjucated with N400, then in fact, only 40,000 I 751 are adjucated when, in fact, USCIS receives 45,000 new I 751 per each quarter, resulting in 5000 cases backlogged again. 

 

Truth to be told, I am more likely to be focusing on negative sides since part of my professional life is all about worst case scenarios (i.e: with 0.001% of side effects for drug, and legal complaints filed by one angry consumer can get my work life in a big mess), so I am not optimistic on this matter, but sure, it is fair to say it is kind of glass half. 

 

Edited April 26, 2019 by xillini