K1 timeline NOA2 VJ prediction seems a little early

[Bjh 39]

Hey people, 

 

I submitted my I-129f in early January, and since then my predicted NOA2 date on the VJ timeline has gotten increasingly earlier (from late May/early June to now late April!).

 

This seems considerably faster than the 5.5-7.5 months listed on the official USCIS website for the I-129f. Can anyone provide insight into why? Also, I've heard an increasingly earlier predicted NOA2 suggests your petition will be approved earlier, is that true?

 

Thanks!

Edited April 20, 2019 by Bjh

[GaryK 39]

21 minutes ago, Bjh said:

Hey people, 

 

I submitted my I-129f in early January, and since then my predicted NOA2 date on the VJ timeline has gotten increasingly earlier (from late May/early June to now late April!).

 

This seems considerably faster than the 5.5-7.5 months listed on the official USCIS website for the I-129f. Can anyone provide insight into why? Also, I've heard an increasingly earlier predicted NOA2 suggests your petition will be approved earlier, is that true?

 

Thanks!

 

GARY'S TOP 3 FOR THE DAY

1)  The dates in your VJ timeline are not to be believed.  If you want a more accurate estimate, consult with your local swami or tarot card reader

 

2)  The 5.5 to 7.5 months you see on the website will be drummed into your ears incessantly if you are ever insane enough to call the uscis CSR line

 

3)  If you're from Boston, are of Irish ancestry and filing a petition for a woman in Ukraine add 9 months to your wait

[Shellimedz 33]

It's been speeding up, so it's probably right. Mine kept moving up until I finally got approved almost a month before the prediction. Can't say yours will be that soon or not but it has been trending towards 4 months from what I've seen. 

[Zoeeeeeee 797]

2 hours ago, Bjh said:

Hey people, 

 

I submitted my I-129f in early January, and since then my predicted NOA2 date on the VJ timeline has gotten increasingly earlier (from late May/early June to now late April!).

 

This seems considerably faster than the 5.5-7.5 months listed on the official USCIS website for the I-129f. Can anyone provide insight into why? Also, I've heard an increasingly earlier predicted NOA2 suggests your petition will be approved earlier, is that true?

 

Thanks!

I was originally predicted a NOA2 adjudication date of mid-May...the dates kept moving forwards until they ended up on 7th - 14th April...my petition was actually approved on 15th April (and we received the paper copy on 19th April).

 

The VJ estimates are based on people on here updating their timelines - the timeline for other people has sped up, so VJ estimates yours will too. It hopefully will do - though there’s no guarantee because unfortunately, they don’t always seem to be worked in exactly the order they come in - so it depends on the case worker that your petition has been assigned to.

 

In regards to why USCIS have speeded us, who can say? They got more staff/less applications/first to do 20 applications in a day wins a new blender incentive in the office...could be anything. But it’s definitely a positive, so don’t worry!

[Nora&Jobany 11]

14 hours ago, Bjh said:

Hey people, 

 

I submitted my I-129f in early January, and since then my predicted NOA2 date on the VJ timeline has gotten increasingly earlier (from late May/early June to now late April!).

 

This seems considerably faster than the 5.5-7.5 months listed on the official USCIS website for the I-129f. Can anyone provide insight into why? Also, I've heard an increasingly earlier predicted NOA2 suggests your petition will be approved earlier, is that true?

 

Thanks!

Yea~~ Our case as well! We filed in the petition on 6 Jan 2019, and we got our NOA2 on 11 April 2019! That's really nice! 

 

The waiting is just torturing! =) 

 

Good luck to you all xoxo

[GaryK 39]

14 hours ago, Zoeeeeeee said:

I was originally predicted a NOA2 adjudication date of mid-May...the dates kept moving forwards until they ended up on 7th - 14th April...my petition was actually approved on 15th April (and we received the paper copy on 19th April).

 

The VJ estimates are based on people on here updating their timelines - the timeline for other people has sped up, so VJ estimates yours will too. It hopefully will do - though there’s no guarantee because unfortunately, they don’t always seem to be worked in exactly the order they come in - so it depends on the case worker that your petition has been assigned to.

 

In regards to why USCIS have speeded us, who can say? They got more staff/less applications/first to do 20 applications in a day wins a new blender incentive in the office...could be anything. But it’s definitely a positive, so don’t worry!

The VJ timeline is based on pure fertilizer.  There are cases like yours where your actual NOA2 came in around the range.  Consider yourself lucky.  For many others it was way off.

 

In about a month my VJ timeline will be telling me my I-129f may be adjudicated around my 26th birthday.

[Zoeeeeeee 797]

1 minute ago, GaryK said:

The VJ timeline is based on pure fertilizer.  There are cases like yours where your actual NOA2 came in around the range.  Consider yourself lucky.  For many others it was way off.

 

In about a month my VJ timeline will be telling me my I-129f may be adjudicated around my 26th birthday.

Well, it’s based on the information that people enter here. I do think I’m lucky - but I also think from seeing other people post that the estimate has been relatively accurate for a good chunk of people - but there are always going to be exceptions and unluckily for you, you were one of them. We were in a similar place with my fiancé’s divorce, which took two years to complete 😫...so I definitely know the never-ending waiting feeling. Maybe your caseworker already has an amazing blender so isn’t feeling incentivised...

 

My advice would always be that there’s a good chance your case will be assessed by the VJ estimate date, but zero guarantee.

[GaryK 39]

20 minutes ago, Zoeeeeeee said:

Well, it’s based on the information that people enter here. I do think I’m lucky - but I also think from seeing other people post that the estimate has been relatively accurate for a good chunk of people - but there are always going to be exceptions and unluckily for you, you were one of them. We were in a similar place with my fiancé’s divorce, which took two years to complete 😫...so I definitely know the never-ending waiting feeling. Maybe your caseworker already has an amazing blender so isn’t feeling incentivised...

 

My advice would always be that there’s a good chance your case will be assessed by the VJ estimate date, but zero guarantee.

This is strictly anecdotal but of those I have asked and the timelines I have examined the VJ timeline has about 1/3 accuracy.

[GaryK 39]

2 hours ago, Nora&Jobany said:

Yea~~ Our case as well! We filed in the petition on 6 Jan 2019, and we got our NOA2 on 11 April 2019! That's really nice! 

 

The waiting is just torturing! 😃

 

Tell me about it.  Your wait was a walk in the park compared to many others.  Consider yourself very lucky.

[Nora&Jobany 11]

12 minutes ago, GaryK said:

Tell me about it.  Your wait was a walk in the park compared to many others.  Consider yourself very lucky.

Gary, I do consider me and my fiance very lucky!

 

And I wish the same for you and Anna! It's not easy at all, but it strengths your bonds 😃  

[GaryK 39]

56 minutes ago, Zoeeeeeee said:

Well, it’s based on the information that people enter here. I do think I’m lucky - but I also think from seeing other people post that the estimate has been relatively accurate for a good chunk of people - but there are always going to be exceptions and unluckily for you, you were one of them. We were in a similar place with my fiancé’s divorce, which took two years to complete 😫...so I definitely know the never-ending waiting feeling. Maybe your caseworker already has an amazing blender so isn’t feeling incentivised...

 

My advice would always be that there’s a good chance your case will be assessed by the VJ estimate date, but zero guarantee.

For those of you who think the VJ timeline is worth more than a passing glance, wake up and smell the uscis:

 

1) When it comes to NOA2s, my fiancee's country hasn't had a whole lot of movement over the last several months yet each and every day my VJ timeline dates have been bouncing around like a pinball.  I'm waiting for it to back up before I even filed my petition.  By all accounts part of the I-129f approval process involves 'reach outs' to the beneficiary country for information.  So it appears the beneficiary country is not part of the VJ timeline calculus when my country is like a flatline for NOA2s yet my timeline is constantly changing

 

2) As Zoeeeeeee points out, the VJ timeline is '...based on the information that people enter here'.  We already see what leaving things up to human intervention does when the California Service Center has an absolutely putrid record of completing the manual process so you see status updates in your uscis online account.  Garbage in, garbage out... an information technology axiom.  I have encountered at least two people who not only got their NOA2 dates wrong but they were off by over a month

 

3) A significant amount of the people who create a timeline don't ever come back to complete them.  Maybe they lost interest in participating in VJ, maybe they got sidetracked.  This skews the results

 

4) The VJ population makes up a small percentage of the overall number of petitioners out there.  Indeed, a large majority of the petitioners may not have even heard of VJ much less visited it.  Basing anything on a small percentage of the population is tantamount to calling an election with 2% of the precincts reporting

 

If your VJ timeline just happened to be correct (or near correct),  it isn't because the timeline is 'accurate for a good chunk of people'.  It's because occasionally it gets it right but the way it got there wasn't based on anything you can take seriously.

[payxibka 10,047]

What reach outs?

[AnneA 72]

As already mentioned the timeline estimates are based on people updating their timelines and are estimates - some go fast others slow no way to know which one you're gonna be.

 

Regarding countries well 2 danes almost same NOA1 dates (September 24 and 26) one got NOA2  February 14 which was very close to the estimated time and we're still waiting 🤔

 

We did get RFE for my divorce papers as USCIS hasn't updated accepted papers from Denmark so they actually equal what is possible to obtain. I have contacted the embassy about that as it is suggested at their website 😊

[Stubmeister 31]

I'll add my 2 cents here. I submitted my I-129F and it was received on December 31, 2018. It was transferred to the California Service center on January 4. I got my NOA-2 on April 8. 94 days! Original prediction was June 16, 2019!

[Mekulisch 97]

You will go crazy if you depend on VJ estimates.  Be happy if things go faster for you, but remember that many wait far longer than the estimated predictions.  And a long wait doesn’t necessarily mean that you got a RFE....it’s just the luck of the draw