Accuracy Of VJ Timeline For NOA2???

[George Judea 29]

23 hours ago, Jenny17655 said:

When I filed for EAD (NOA1 12/3/18) my estimated time of approval was May 15th.  As the we moved closer to April the estimated date kept creeping up each day until my estimated date was April 9th and we got our approval April 8th 

Pretty close though 

[P&K 38]

Our estimated date was moving forward in time and by the time of approval it was April 2nd. Our NOA2 date is April 1st. So pretty accurate for us. 

[k_woood 5]

 

On 4/11/2019 at 11:56 AM, George Judea said:

Hello all of my people!

 

For those of you who have gone through the NOA1 and NOA2 process AND used VJ Timeline, I am just curious how accurate was it? Mine is predicting first to second week August 2019 for NOA2 (without any RFE’s)...I just filed at the end of March, you can check my timeline for that information. Just curious. I know it’s quite the wait and I am a very patient person but I just want to know the accuracy of the estimate given. 

 

Thanks! 

Hi! I asked this same question last week! I got an email from VJ saying my estimation was April 9, 2019 (I got my noa1 on November 28, 2018). As we got closer to April 9, our estimation changed to April 1-5 which had already passed. We then got another email from VJ saying our estimation period had passed. Yesterday, however, I received the NOA2 in the mail and it was dated for April 9, 2019. So the estimation was pretty close. 

 

BE WARNED!!! Our status was never updated online. It still says our case has only been received on the USCIS website. The mail is the most reliable so just wait it out if you’re estimation has passed! 

[QueenieBonds 15]

 Mine is past due.  Our petition was received on December 5, 2018.  VJ  currently predicts an April 7 2019 NOA2. We have previous marriages and a child in our application so I’m not sure if that slows it down a bit or not. The timeline given on here is vastly different from the USCIS website.

Edited April 16, 2019 by QueenieBonds

[Kowatti 189]

4 minutes ago, QueenieBonds said:

 Mine is past due.  Our petition was received on December 5, 2018.  VJ  currently predicts an April 7 2019 NOA2. We have previous marriages and a child in our application so I’m not sure if that slows it down a bit or not. The timeline given on here is vastly different from the USCIS website.

Hi.  I don't believe having children or previous marriages matter too much, as long as you sent them all the pages from your divorce decree.  A lot has to do with the person who will be handling your package.  Also, how fast your background checks can be completed, verifications of documents you provided, & other things that they have to check for.  Good luck on your journey & may you have a speedy one.  I would say for a lot of us, the VJ timeline that is generated here is usually pretty close, if no RFE's are involved.  It does change as you get closer to your time to hear something from them.

[QueenieBonds 15]

1 hour ago, PandT said:

Hi.  I don't believe having children or previous marriages matter too much, as long as you sent them all the pages from your divorce decree.  A lot has to do with the person who will be handling your package.  Also, how fast your background checks can be completed, verifications of documents you provided, & other things that they have to check for.  Good luck on your journey & may you have a speedy one.  I would say for a lot of us, the VJ timeline that is generated here is usually pretty close, if no RFE's are involved.  It does change as you get closer to your time to hear something from them.

That is good to hear. Thank you for that info and well wishes. I was surprised to read in this thread that the website wasn’t updated before the mail NOA2 arrived for at least one VJ user. This is truly the thread I’ve been searching for 

[Kowatti 189]

32 minutes ago, QueenieBonds said:

That is good to hear. Thank you for that info and well wishes. I was surprised to read in this thread that the website wasn’t updated before the mail NOA2 arrived for at least one VJ user. This is truly the thread I’ve been searching for 

Yup!  They don't always update & no one really understands why.  The one thing you can depend on is USPS, when it's time, lol.   I hope you signed up for USPS informed delivery. This is a stressful journey & it takes a lot of patience.  I am glad you found our forum helpful.  There are many knowledgable members here who can offer you help when you have a question or don't understand something.  Hang in there.  

[GaryK 39]

12 hours ago, PandT said:

Yup!  They don't always update & no one really understands why.  The one thing you can depend on is USPS, when it's time, lol.   I hope you signed up for USPS informed delivery. This is a stressful journey & it takes a lot of patience.  I am glad you found our forum helpful.  There are many knowledgable members here who can offer you help when you have a question or don't understand something.  Hang in there.  

I have it already but I don't understand what the big yahoo is about Informed Delivery and letters from the uscis.  From what I can see it's of minimal benefit.  You'll find out circa 7:30 am THAT DAY you're getting something from the uscis (could be an approval, could be something else).  You'll find out for sure what it is when you get home from work.  So what does it buy you?  Around 8 hours?

[DaveAndAnastasia 2,092]

45 minutes ago, GaryK said:

I have it already but I don't understand what the big yahoo is about Informed Delivery and letters from the uscis.  From what I can see it's of minimal benefit.  You'll find out circa 7:30 am THAT DAY you're getting something from the uscis (could be an approval, could be something else).  You'll find out for sure what it is when you get home from work.  So what does it buy you?  Around 8 hours?

Many people don't check their physical mail every day (because normally urgent communication is going to be electronic), especially if you're in a development or apartment complex where the mailboxes are a bit out of the way from your home.

[Kowatti 189]

1 hour ago, GaryK said:

I have it already but I don't understand what the big yahoo is about Informed Delivery and letters from the uscis.  From what I can see it's of minimal benefit.  You'll find out circa 7:30 am THAT DAY you're getting something from the uscis (could be an approval, could be something else).  You'll find out for sure what it is when you get home from work.  So what does it buy you?  Around 8 hours?

If you snap a picture of the outside of the envelope or tell them what you can see from looking at the outside, many of these smart VJ members know what the approval letter looks like before you open it, lol.

[treppenwitz 78]

6 hours ago, GaryK said:

So what does it buy you?

It gives you a chance to see if USPS screwed up. If a USCIS notice shows up on Informed Delivery and you don't receive it within a week then the Postal Service has lost your USCIS notice. It occasionally happens. Also during AOS, USCIS sends EADs and GCs in Priority Mail envelopes; i.e. they have USPS tracking. Informed Delivery should automatically add the tracking number into the "Packages" tab when the barcode is initially scanned by USPS.

Edited April 16, 2019 by treppenwitz

[GaryK 39]

8 minutes ago, treppenwitz said:

It gives you a chance to see if USPS screwed up. If a USCIS notice shows up on Informed Delivery and you don't receive it within a week then the Postal Service has lost your USCIS notice. It occasionally happens. Also during AOS, USCIS sends EADs and GCs in Priority Mail envelopes; i.e. they have USPS tracking. Informed Delivery should automatically add the tracking number when the barcode is initially scanned by USPS.

 

8 minutes ago, treppenwitz said:

It gives you a chance to see if USPS screwed up. If a USCIS notice shows up on Informed Delivery and you don't receive it within a week then the Postal Service has lost your USCIS notice. It occasionally happens. Also during AOS, USCIS sends EADs and GCs in Priority Mail envelopes; i.e. they have USPS tracking. Informed Delivery should automatically add the tracking number when the barcode is initially scanned by USPS.

Excellent points.  I didn't take these into consideration and for good reason.  The only communication I have received from the uscis was the NOA1 for what seems like a million years ago.

 

Zen question of the day:  Does Gary get a NOA2 before NASA puts a chimp on Mars?

Edited April 16, 2019 by GaryK

[GaryK 39]

22 hours ago, PandT said:

I would say for a lot of us, the VJ timeline that is generated here is usually pretty close, if no RFE's are involved.

What are you basing the success on?  I wish the VJ timeline was accurate because, if it was, I would have popped my champagne bottle by now.

 

I haven't taken any serious polls but at least the general responses I have gotten from people I've asked suggests maybe 1/3 accuracy.  Anecdotal evidence indeed but a good portion of that 1/3 weren't sure if it was VJ's great forecasting or just plain coincidence.  Most people (including me) think you should take those dates in your timeline with a grain of salt.

 

It would help if the powers-that-be here at VJ could explain the calculus used to determine those dates for each person.

 

[Kowatti 189]

10 minutes ago, GaryK said:

What are you basing the success on?  I wish the VJ timeline was accurate because, if it was, I would have popped my champagne bottle by now.

 

I haven't taken any serious polls but at least the general responses I have gotten from people I've asked suggests maybe 1/3 accuracy.  Anecdotal evidence indeed but a good portion of that 1/3 weren't sure if it was VJ's great forecasting or just plain coincidence.  Most people (including me) think you should take those dates in your timeline with a grain of salt.

 

It would help if the powers-that-be here at VJ could explain the calculus used to determine those dates for each person.

 

Honestly, the best thing to do is to relax until USCIS has completed what they are doing & hopefully you will get an answer soon.  At the beginning of our journey, my stress level was high.  I started to relax more as I was finding out that I wasn't alone.  Communicating with VJ members helped me.  That's why I still have some sanity left.

[GaryK 39]

1 minute ago, PandT said:

Honestly, the best thing to do is to relax until USCIS has completed what they are doing & hopefully you will get an answer soon.  At the beginning of our journey, my stress level was high.  I started to relax more as I was finding out that I wasn't alone.  Communicating with VJ members helped me.  That's why I still have some sanity left.

Petitioners don't have a choice BUT wait for the uscis.  If we could do an end-around, trust me we all would.  Pass GO, collect $200.

 

The topic here is the VJ timeline and your previous post suggested a certain degree of accuracy with it.  I was just curious what you based this on because I never got a warm and fuzzy from it.

 

For those who haven't yet relaxed, don't look at your VJ timeline dates with any more seriousness than your local horoscope.