Estimated VJ timeline

[Hd1170 30]

For thoes of you who have received your NOA2, how accurate was the anticipated date provided by Visa journey? We are in the process of making some decisions about schooling and while I know there is never a guarantee it would be nice to know if that anticipated date is one we can use to guide us.

[Rob37 5]

I thought the estimate was really optomistic given what I had read elsewhere. i was shocked when my petition was approved in just 115 days and beat the visa journey estimate. I think you all are going a great job!!

[Russel1995 163]

My approval was around 1.5 months before hand.  expected approval was april 11th, approved feb. 26th

[payxibka 10,045]

19 minutes ago, Hd1170 said:

For thoes of you who have received your NOA2, how accurate was the anticipated date provided by Visa journey? We are in the process of making some decisions about schooling and while I know there is never a guarantee it would be nice to know if that anticipated date is one we can use to guide us.

Timelines expand and contract all the time,  wr are currently in a time of contraction but this can change at any time

[ionoone 19]

4 hours ago, Hd1170 said:

For thoes of you who have received your NOA2, how accurate was the anticipated date provided by Visa journey? We are in the process of making some decisions about schooling and while I know there is never a guarantee it would be nice to know if that anticipated date is one we can use to guide us.

It changes all the time. For us, the timelines were not accurate; it took longer than what was estimated (6 weeks from NOA2 to NVC received (rather than the estimated 21 days at the time, which is now 29 days). Others who received their NOA2s after us made it to the NVC and the consulate before us. There is no way of telling really. 

The timelines seem to be shorter now, and people who submitted their I-129F 3-4 months after us have now caught up and are at the same stage as us (we filed in July). But the tables could turn and the timelines could get longer. 

[SalishSea 17,833]

Ours was approved last year @ 185 days, which was pretty close to the predicted time here on VJ (time till NOA2 was taking longer last year).  The NVC ---> embassy ----> interview portion was quite fast ~ less than six weeks!  And my husband's EAD/AP card arrived a month earlier than the VJ estimate.  

 

The 'data' is only as good as the accuracy of people voluntarily reporting here.

[SJordanS 343]

5 hours ago, Hd1170 said:

For thoes of you who have received your NOA2, how accurate was the anticipated date provided by Visa journey? We are in the process of making some decisions about schooling and while I know there is never a guarantee it would be nice to know if that anticipated date is one we can use to guide us.

Nope. Its way off. It “guesstimated Feb 12-25th” for me and Im still waiting. I believe it was basing it off of overall trends rather than country and region specific stats. 

[DaveAndAnastasia 2,092]

16 hours ago, Hd1170 said:

For thoes of you who have received your NOA2, how accurate was the anticipated date provided by Visa journey? We are in the process of making some decisions about schooling and while I know there is never a guarantee it would be nice to know if that anticipated date is one we can use to guide us.

The last time anyone did any analysis of this that I know of, about 40% of timelines were approved within +/- 1 week of their final projected date.

However, I think that was during a period when processing times were fairly static; if they're changing (which they have been lately, fortunately for those filing in the second half of 2018 it's been going down) the projections will be less accurate.

 

We (late May 2018 filers) were approved about ten days before our final projected date. However, what the averages are does not guarantee anything about any specific case; one of the original posters in the May 2018 thread didn't get their NOA2 until last month (with no RFEs) ... and some late December 2018 filers were approved yesterday.

Edited April 3, 2019 by DaveAndAnastasia

[Ryan H 3,812]

Moved from K1 Process & Procedures to Site-Related Discussion; topic is about the VJ timeline feature.