My timeline keeps changing estimated dates!!

[Bengoj 133]

I check my timeline frequently and have been given different dates for estimate approved time. It keeps pushing the date forward. I’m at Texas service center filed October 2018. First it said April now May. Is this information accurate??🙄😩

[Liam2021 583]

It not accurate...

[Crazy Cat 41,844]

VJ timeline estimates are based on the sample of posters who update their timelines.  As a result, as more and more people update them, the bigger and better sample is used for the algorithm. 

9 minutes ago, H&T said:

It not accurate...

On what do you base that answer?

 

Edited January 28, 2019 by missileman

[Bengoj 133]

2 minutes ago, H&T said:

It not accurate...

Ok thanks...that’s a big relief!

[Bengoj 133]

2 minutes ago, missileman said:

VJ timeline estimates are based on the sample of posters who update their timelines.  As a result, as more and more people update them, more m

On what do you base that answer?

 

Than that should mean it’s not accurate because people are not updating accurately at times

[Crazy Cat 41,844]

1 minute ago, Gojo said:

Than that should mean it’s not accurate because people are not updating accurately at times

It seems to me that as more and more people update their timelines, the more accurate it will be.......I would think that the later estimate would be more accurate........or am I missing something?

[Bengoj 133]

2 minutes ago, Gojo said:

Than that should mean it’s not accurate because people are not updating accurately at times

Confirmed, it’s not accurate. Someone just got approved and on their timeline estimate, it gives them approval estimate of end of February 

[Celie 793]

Just now, Gojo said:

Than that should mean it’s not accurate because people are not updating accurately at times

It still follows more or less a trend. It changes as the approval times change monthly so I would at least take it in consideration and not write it off as inaccurate. No data is 100% correct but based on the timelines I've seen it's been pretty precise. Mine started late March and now it's at mid February and sure enough September K1 filers are already getting approved.

[The_Empyrean 733]

Times on VJ are Estimates. So it means sometimes it takes longer, sometimes shorter. Don't forget it case-by-case, where someone with let's say common name, might take longer, versus a person with unusual name etc.

There are so many variables here, that only exact dates you know is NOA1, and everything else is an estimate.

That being said, there are people who don't finish their timelines, people who put wrong dates, people who forget to update timelines. the most accurate estimate i'd say is USCIS month's estimates. Between 7-9months (not sure how long is right now for K-1, just an example)

[Crazy Cat 41,844]

7 minutes ago, Gojo said:

Confirmed, it’s not accurate. Someone just got approved and on their timeline estimate, it gives them approval estimate of end of February 

Estimating approval dates is not an exact science since all case are somewhat different.  In general, the greater the sample size, the better the accuracy.

[The_Empyrean 733]

I'd say avoid looking at estimates (to make yourself feel better) on VJ, and follow the USCIS one. Why?
Some people get approved extremely quick for no reason, that'll give you anxiety.

If you pass the estimate, it'll give you more anxiety (mine did pass VJ's by almost 2 week, while it was pushed back for another 2 . So 4 weeks)

I know it's nerve wrecking, start being interested only when you're close or on your "processing date" on USCIS site, then start gathering paperwork for next steps. Otherwise, my advice, refrain from checking it, and keep yourself busy. Been there, and i was trying to rationalize things, play out scenarios in my head as to why this guy got approved so soon, but he's same NOA1 date as me and such.

Cheers!

[Bengoj 133]

28 minutes ago, PaulMac said:

I'd say avoid looking at estimates (to make yourself feel better) on VJ, and follow the USCIS one. Why?
Some people get approved extremely quick for no reason, that'll give you anxiety.

If you pass the estimate, it'll give you more anxiety (mine did pass VJ's by almost 2 week, while it was pushed back for another 2 . So 4 weeks)

I know it's nerve wrecking, start being interested only when you're close or on your "processing date" on USCIS site, then start gathering paperwork for next steps. Otherwise, my advice, refrain from checking it, and keep yourself busy. Been there, and i was trying to rationalize things, play out scenarios in my head as to why this guy got approved so soon, but he's same NOA1 date as me and such.

Cheers!

Thank you!! I’m really anxious so you’re right I should just keep busy and forget about it. I’m following September 2018 filers but I filed in October 2018. Some September filers are already receiving their NOA2. So I just need to just chill and let it take its course. 

[The_Empyrean 733]

1 minute ago, Gojo said:

Thank you!! I’m really anxious so you’re right I should just keep busy and forget about it. I’m following September 2018 filers but I filed in October 2018. Some September filers are already receiving their NOA2. So I just need to just chill and let it take its course. 

Hang in there, you're close! Yeah, i was the same way, kept checking every day and then one person said the same thing i said to you "you can't change the processing time, looking at it more, wont push it faster, and you're just gonna drive yourself insane". I just literally sent out AoS paperwork, so i'm gonna start stressing out soon too lol

[Bengoj 133]

1 minute ago, PaulMac said:

Hang in there, you're close! Yeah, i was the same way, kept checking every day and then one person said the same thing i said to you "you can't change the processing time, looking at it more, wont push it faster, and you're just gonna drive yourself insane". I just literally sent out AoS paperwork, so i'm gonna start stressing out soon too lol

You will be fine!! And thanks for the info. Keep us posted. 

[Chocobo 196]

1 hour ago, Gojo said:

Thank you!! I’m really anxious so you’re right I should just keep busy and forget about it. I’m following September 2018 filers but I filed in October 2018. Some September filers are already receiving their NOA2. So I just need to just chill and let it take its course. 

Feeling your pain on this, too!    There's currently an overall trend of things taking longer, so that's why the estimated dates are getting pushed back.  It sucks, but it's trending to be across the board.  It may provide a little comfort to look at the graph of the processing stats to reassure you that it's not that there's anything wrong w/your paperwork, or that anything got lost, but that there's delays in general.