January 2019 - AOS Filers (merged)

[mital 16]

4 minutes ago, Shiran said:

But your AoS and AP are working well? 

Ya that status showed up but not EAD

[Northerndynasty 142]

So....nothing’s changed on the USCIS posted estimated timeframes, VaJayJay has “updated” my “Estimated” approval dates.  Hahaha!  Where do they get this from?!?!

 

Two weeks ago: 

AP: May 24

EAD: May 29

 

Last week:

AP: July 29

EAD: July 30

 

Today:

AP: June 21

EAD: June 24

 

Even when nothing changes for the USCIS.  Bwahahaha!

[Bluewaters 288]

1 hour ago, Northerndynasty said:

So....nothing’s changed on the USCIS posted estimated timeframes, VaJayJay has “updated” my “Estimated” approval dates.  Hahaha!  Where do they get this from?!?!

 

Two weeks ago: 

AP: May 24

EAD: May 29

 

Last week:

AP: July 29

EAD: July 30

 

Today:

AP: June 21

EAD: June 24

 

Even when nothing changes for the USCIS.  Bwahahaha!

Very very interesting. Their estimated dates are not reliable 

[The_Empyrean 733]

13 hours ago, Bluewaters said:

Very very interesting. Their estimated dates are not reliable 

look at the EAD timelines.. It's not that VJ is not reliable. Out of last 9 recent approvals, only 4 were Dec and above, all other are NOV or OCT. which shifts the estimations towards the longer end rather than shortening it, or keeping it steady. Those fluctuations are caused by 3 people approved in a row in NOA1 JAN or later, and then more 2018 NOA's. So the estimations shifted to may'ish first, then dropped back to June because of exactly that. 

It jumps back and forth compared to K-1 because, more people are updating the K-1's as there are more steps and people need more help along the way; they keep coming back so more likely to update with NOA1's, P3's etc etc etc. EAD on the other hand, is well.. You're approved so there is not much to come back for except for AoS, and still AoS threads are quieter than K1. To sum up, K-1 are steadier because MORE people are CONSTANTLY updating them, giving the VJ's estimations more accuracy vs EAD's 1-2 updates in a day max.

To put it even in a simple way:
Two EAD updates lets say one is 50 days, other is 150 days. Average would be 100 days. Add another update and it can shift the projections dramatically.

K1 to compare : 50 days, 100days, 150days = comes up to 100days still, add one with 300 and estimate is 150 days. Add 300 to EAD and it's 166days. there is a 16.6 days fluctuation, half a month. 

Now see what i mean? More people updating= more accuracy.

[Northerndynasty 142]

5 minutes ago, The_Empyrean said:

look at the EAD timelines.. It's not that VJ is not reliable. Out of last 9 recent approvals, only 4 were Dec and above, all other are NOV or OCT. which shifts the estimations towards the longer end rather than shortening it, or keeping it steady. Those fluctuations are caused by 3 people approved in a row in NOA1 JAN or later, and then more 2018 NOA's. So the estimations shifted to may'ish first, then dropped back to June because of exactly that. 

It jumps back and forth compared to K-1 because, more people are updating the K-1's as there are more steps and people need more help along the way; they keep coming back so more likely to update with NOA1's, P3's etc etc etc. EAD on the other hand, is well.. You're approved so there is not much to come back for except for AoS, and still AoS threads are quieter than K1. To sum up, K-1 are steadier because MORE people are CONSTANTLY updating them, giving the VJ's estimations more accuracy vs EAD's 1-2 updates in a day max.

To put it even in a simple way:
Two EAD updates lets say one is 50 days, other is 150 days. Average would be 100 days. Add another update and it can shift the projections dramatically.

K1 to compare : 50 days, 100days, 150days = comes up to 100days still, add one with 300 and estimate is 150 days. Add 300 to EAD and it's 166days. there is a 16.6 days fluctuation, half a month. 

Now see what i mean? More people updating= more accuracy.

So, to really summarize your response, forget about the VaJayJay estimates, and just stick with whatever USCIS posts and whenever your straw gets pulled.

Got it...

 

[Bluewaters 288]

47 minutes ago, The_Empyrean said:

look at the EAD timelines.. It's not that VJ is not reliable. Out of last 9 recent approvals, only 4 were Dec and above, all other are NOV or OCT. which shifts the estimations towards the longer end rather than shortening it, or keeping it steady. Those fluctuations are caused by 3 people approved in a row in NOA1 JAN or later, and then more 2018 NOA's. So the estimations shifted to may'ish first, then dropped back to June because of exactly that. 

It jumps back and forth compared to K-1 because, more people are updating the K-1's as there are more steps and people need more help along the way; they keep coming back so more likely to update with NOA1's, P3's etc etc etc. EAD on the other hand, is well.. You're approved so there is not much to come back for except for AoS, and still AoS threads are quieter than K1. To sum up, K-1 are steadier because MORE people are CONSTANTLY updating them, giving the VJ's estimations more accuracy vs EAD's 1-2 updates in a day max.

To put it even in a simple way:
Two EAD updates lets say one is 50 days, other is 150 days. Average would be 100 days. Add another update and it can shift the projections dramatically.

K1 to compare : 50 days, 100days, 150days = comes up to 100days still, add one with 300 and estimate is 150 days. Add 300 to EAD and it's 166days. there is a 16.6 days fluctuation, half a month. 

Now see what i mean? More people updating= more accuracy.

I do get you. It is a new week and I wish us all luck 

[Bluewaters 288]

42 minutes ago, Northerndynasty said:

So, to really summarize your response, forget about the VaJayJay estimates, and just stick with whatever USCIS posts and whenever your straw gets pulled.

Got it...

 

I am not really relying on VJ date estimation as my predicted dates are  expiring today. In all I am still hopeful 

[The_Empyrean 733]

54 minutes ago, Northerndynasty said:

So, to really summarize your response, forget about the VaJayJay estimates, and just stick with whatever USCIS posts and whenever your straw gets pulled.

Got it...

 

all im saying, the EAD timelines aren't AS accurate as K1's. USCIS posts the "longest" estimate. 

[Bluewaters 288]

Just now, The_Empyrean said:

all im saying, the EAD timelines aren't AS accurate as K1's. USCIS posts the "longest" estimate. 

You are right. 

I have been viewing some people timeline from other months and what I notice is most of the ead/AP approvals are between 120 days and 170 days. This is what I have notice. It is just a few that get approved less than 120 days and over 170 days. 

[The_Empyrean 733]

2 minutes ago, Bluewaters said:

You are right. 

I have been viewing some people timeline from other months and what I notice is most of the ead/AP approvals are between 120 days and 170 days. This is what I have notice. It is just a few that get approved less than 120 days and over 170 days. 

exactly!

There is the majority, and then there are minority of late or early approvals. Problem is, that people are more likely to go on forums to complain about late approvals, and yell loud for being singled out. Normal, is well, normal. Whoever is within normal times, or even early, won't be as prone to move to forums to express their gratitude or luck or whatever they are feeling.

It's similar to "car enthusiast" forums. Where you'll find majority of topic 'this is broken', 'this doesnt work', 'how to fix this' etc. And VERY VERY little number of 'this car rocks'. same here.

People are usually coming to VJ when they need help, or when something unexpected pops up, they get delayed, RFE's or other PROBLEMS. Look at most popular topics here, i'd say 70% every day topics are posted by people with less than 5 reputation points.

out of normal processed cases lets say 5 respond, where late will be 7, and early maybe 2. It can dramatically change the "estimate". If USCIS kept track like VJ does, and updated, then you could be upset that more or less people are getting processed early or late. now, there is nothing to be upset about. Especially at VJ timelines, where it's LITERALLY run by community, not website itself. 

[Northerndynasty 142]

2 minutes ago, The_Empyrean said:

exactly!

There is the majority, and then there are minority of late or early approvals. Problem is, that people are more likely to go on forums to complain about late approvals, and yell loud for being singled out. Normal, is well, normal. Whoever is within normal times, or even early, won't be as prone to move to forums to express their gratitude or luck or whatever they are feeling.

It's similar to "car enthusiast" forums. Where you'll find majority of topic 'this is broken', 'this doesnt work', 'how to fix this' etc. And VERY VERY little number of 'this car rocks'. same here.

People are usually coming to VJ when they need help, or when something unexpected pops up, they get delayed, RFE's or other PROBLEMS. Look at most popular topics here, i'd say 70% every day topics are posted by people with less than 5 reputation points.

out of normal processed cases lets say 5 respond, where late will be 7, and early maybe 2. It can dramatically change the "estimate". If USCIS kept track like VJ does, and updated, then you could be upset that more or less people are getting processed early or late. now, there is nothing to be upset about. Especially at VJ timelines, where it's LITERALLY run by community, not website itself. 

Sounds reasonable.  USCIS just upped the non-C9 I-765's through the NBC to 9-11.5 months!  That's just insane!  C9's are still, apparently, 5-7 months...for now...

[emekus94 1,125]

17 hours ago, Northerndynasty said:

So....nothing’s changed on the USCIS posted estimated timeframes, VaJayJay has “updated” my “Estimated” approval dates.  Hahaha!  Where do they get this from?!?!

 

Two weeks ago: 

AP: May 24

EAD: May 29

 

Last week:

AP: July 29

EAD: July 30

 

Today:

AP: June 21

EAD: June 24

 

Even when nothing changes for the USCIS.  Bwahahaha!

VaJayJay (Love how it reads on paper- lol) Gets timelines from people on here.

This is why we always encourage users to keep their timelines as updated as possible.
It's fluctuating so much probably because people messed up their timelines (i.e. took a long time to update it, didn't update at all, etc)
VJ is a good reference point. But nothing is ever etched in stone

[SR_CAN 111]

Its a new week ya'll ~ 

 

I haven't heard anything back for EAD/AP since biometrics in January - Anyone else in the same boat?

[The_Empyrean 733]

Just now, SR_CAN said:

Its a new week ya'll ~ 

 

I haven't heard anything back for EAD/AP since biometrics in January - Anyone else in the same boat?

70% of this thread is in the same boat with you...

[SR_CAN 111]

Just now, The_Empyrean said:

70% of this thread is in the same boat with you...

LOL oh 😮 ... I keep seeing "I received EAD/AP" in this thread so I've been freaking out a little hahaha