Doing it right

[Crazy Cat 42,519]

1 minute ago, Liflead said:

I am telling you that's the trend. I have been through numerous profiles to understand how long it would be for me cauz I have to prepare accordingly. If you surf through individual profiles, u will find that. I am not kidding or saying it to prove my point. I am saying what I have observed.

Are you saying that the administrator of this site is calculating processing times incorrectly?  A few cherry-picked outlying fast processing times do not make a trend...

Edited September 2, 2018 by missileman

[Liflead 112]

4 minutes ago, missileman said:

Thanks for finding one......but that is an extremely rare event...if the poster entered the dates correctly.  I don't think we should use the extreme cases for examples.  I prefer to use average times.....which I think more accurately reflect what to expect.

I wouldn't go with those graphs as I have seen people entering imcomplete data or future dates. This website is not allows people to enter future dates which shouldnt be. I have been through each profiles and picked up complete and good data.

[debbiedoo 2,339]

2 minutes ago, missileman said:

Are you saying that the administrator of this site is calculating processing times incorrectly?  A few cherry-picked outlying fast processing times do not make a trend...

i mean, im sure i could find K1's that received NOA2 in 4 months (which is how long it's been since we filed). However... the AVERAGE of 7-9 months is what I'm expecting. Then once he finally gets here, 4-6 months for EAD/AP and a year+ for AOS. 

 

After all, there are SOME cases which, for whatever reason, get processed faster.

 

I prefer to live in the land of reality and statistical facts. If it happens sooner, its just a really nice surprise....

[Liflead 112]

4 minutes ago, missileman said:

Are you saying that the administrator of this site is calculating processing times incorrectly?  A few cherry-picked outlying fast processing times do not make a trend...

I showed u a quick example. Rest up to you.

[Crazy Cat 42,519]

2 minutes ago, Liflead said:

I wouldn't go with those graphs as I have seen people entering imcomplete data or future dates. This website is not allows people to enter future dates which shouldnt be. I have been through each profiles and picked up complete and good data.

I suggest you contact @Captain Ewok and teach him your technique.

[geowrian 22,338]

5 minutes ago, Liflead said:

I am telling you that's the trend. I have been through numerous profiles to understand how long it would be for me cauz I have to prepare accordingly. If you surf through individual profiles, u will find that. I am not kidding or saying it to prove my point. I am saying what I have observed.

Just now, Liflead said:

I wouldn't go with those graphs as I have seen people entering imcomplete data or future dates. This website is not allows people to enter future dates which shouldnt be. I have been through each profiles and picked up complete and good data.

I'm sorry, but your data analysis is incorrect.It does not match USCIS processing timelines (https://egov.uscis.gov/cris/processingTimesDisplay.do) nor most VJ profiles (http://www.visajourney.com/timeline/aoslist.php?cfl=0&op1=d&op2=d&op4=1&op5=5,6,8,9,10,11&op8=All&xfr=&vtype=&interview=).

Also, you incorrectly referenced CSC before, which implies a misunderstanding of the AOS process since service centers do not process AOS cases (they don't do interviews, only local field offices do).

 

[Liflead 112]

Just now, missileman said:

I suggest you contact @Captain Ewok and teach him your technique.

Thanks for the suggestion but I guess I am happy doing my own analysis. I don't wanna meddle in somebody else work.

[Crazy Cat 42,519]

1 minute ago, Liflead said:

Thanks for the suggestion but I guess I am happy doing my own analysis. I don't wanna meddle in somebody else work.

Doing your own analysis in fine.......Posting it as sound data analysis and what new posters can expect in their own cases is something else entirely.

[Liflead 112]

2 minutes ago, geowrian said:

 

I'm sorry, but your data analysis is incorrect.It does not match USCIS processing timelines (https://egov.uscis.gov/cris/processingTimesDisplay.do) nor most VJ profiles (http://www.visajourney.com/timeline/aoslist.php?cfl=0&op1=d&op2=d&op4=1&op5=5,6,8,9,10,11&op8=All&xfr=&vtype=&interview=).

Also, you incorrectly referenced CSC before, which implies a misunderstanding of the AOS process since service centers do not process AOS cases (they don't do interviews, only local field offices do).

 

I am not forcing anyone to follow my findings. I already gave a quick example as u asked. About CSC, I have already clarified on that in one of the quotes.

[mushroomspore 3,044]

1 minute ago, Liflead said:

I am not forcing anyone to follow my findings. I already gave a quick example as u asked. About CSC, I have already clarified on that in one of the quotes.

"A quick example" is just one example. It is absolutely not indicative of USCIS' average processing times. Everyone should expect their AoS cases to take about a year or more. Anyone who finishes AoS before 10-12 months is very lucky and it is very rare now.

[Liflead 112]

1 minute ago, missileman said:

Doing your own analysis in fine.......Posting it as sound data analysis and what new posters can expect in their own cases is something else entirely.

I never said it's a sound. I reiterate that it's my observation from good data that I picked. I am not patronising anyone here. As I said, it's up to others if they wanna take my observations. Anyway.. this is not a government website. There is lotta incomplete data on this website. Ppl have entered data with future dates.

[geowrian 22,338]

5 minutes ago, Liflead said:

I am not forcing anyone to follow my findings. I already gave a quick example as u asked. About CSC, I have already clarified on that in one of the quotes.

I made no such request.

You have not clarified or even referenced anything regarding CSC or the use of service centers in your posts, except the originally incorrect statement.

Edited September 2, 2018 by geowrian

[Captain Ewok 1,900]

We are always happy to improve estimates. 

 

As a note:

 

- we filter out incorrect entries or outliers in the estimation process (even when you still see those profiles or timelines)

 

- we do run a statistical analysis but it would confuse a large chunk of folks if we gave an approval date and then cited a 1-sigma value (or said 67% likelihood between certain dates).  Perhaps we could add some more detailed stats in the footer. 

 

- AOS processing is definitely a local office thing with huge variances. 

 

- for most forms if you watch the time series on estimates it shows fairly smooth trends

 

- if input data is too sparse then we won't make an estimate

 

 

 

 

[Captain Ewok 1,900]

2 minutes ago, Liflead said:

I never said it's a sound. I reiterate that it's my observation from good data that I picked. I am not patronising anyone here. As I said, it's up to others if they wanna take my observations. Anyway.. this is not a government website. There is lotta incomplete data on this website. Ppl have entered data with future dates.

Yes we ignore future dates when making estimates. Folks enter them all the time for a confirmed interview or known date. Quite normal. 

[debbiedoo 2,339]

7 minutes ago, Liflead said:

I never said it's a sound. I reiterate that it's my observation from good data that I picked. I am not patronising anyone here. As I said, it's up to others if they wanna take my observations. Anyway.. this is not a government website. There is lotta incomplete data on this website. Ppl have entered data with future dates.

its not GOOD data because it only focuses on the results YOU are looking for. 

 

To compile GOOD data, you have to take ALL of the data and calculate ALL of it in.  Not just what suits you.