Montreal embassy EB-2 interview wait time

[VA21202 109]

1 hour ago, Blueeyes1989 said:

@DrJh07I have an estimate that there are currently 1030 EB applicants waiting in line in Canada.

 

I reached this estimate, based on the fact that, before pandemic (that is 2019), Montreal was processing 72 EBs/month. If we assume that the demand is more or less same then based on the average in 2020 (22 EB/month), 2021 (34 EB/month) and 2022 (77 EB/month till June), the current backlog for EB stands at 1030. 

Good point, I believe the numbers you are referencing are “supply” as opposed to the demand. As in, these were the numbers of interviews/visas issued so that’s the supply…the “demand” is probably far greater and from your analysis, atleast 1030. 

[EternalWait 77]

1 hour ago, Blueeyes1989 said:

@DrJh07I have an estimate that there are currently 1030 EB applicants waiting in line in Canada.

 

I reached this estimate, based on the fact that, before pandemic (that is 2019), Montreal was processing 72 EBs/month. If we assume that the demand is more or less same then based on the average in 2020 (22 EB/month), 2021 (34 EB/month) and 2022 (77 EB/month till June), the current backlog for EB stands at 1030. 

Do you have also an idea on how long it took back then to get an IL ? Like average, was it the usual 6 months since DQ'ed ?

Edited July 21, 2022 by immishok

[Blueeyes1989 90]

@immishok

[Hanif 2]

1 hour ago, VA21202 said:

Good point, I believe the numbers you are referencing are “supply” as opposed to the demand. As in, these were the numbers of interviews/visas issued so that’s the supply…the “demand” is probably far greater and from your analysis, atleast 1030. 

Supply and demand are equal on average overtime. Demand grows, supply start to catch up, then demand starts going down and increased supply clears the backlog and then supply also goes down to match the demand. Basically keeping the backlog relatively constant overtime with a minimal tolerance. We can safely assume that in the absence of an extraordinary situation (pre pandemic) over the span of few years average supply and average demand are equal.

[MapleStory 0]

Did you submit a Level 2 Criminal Record & Judicial Matters Check (CRJMC) or Level 3 (Vulnerable Sector) police check?

[EternalWait 77]

 @Blueeyes1989  : I looked at your data for each month, and it seems like you are summing up the numbers, and your backlog calculation seem to be based on summing up the numbers of each month. But there is something that the DOS website says that is relevant to this: " Therefore, beginning with FY 2020, individual monthly issuance reports should not be aggregated, as this will not provide an accurate issuance total for the fiscal year to date.  Instead, refer to our annual Report of the Visa Office for final full Fiscal Year statistics." 

Could you please comment on this and what your methodology was ? I am trying to compute for myself the EB and F backlog as well, and after reading that, I am not so sure how to do it.

 

 

[EternalWait 77]

On 7/21/2022 at 3:00 PM, Blueeyes1989 said:

@DrJh07I have an estimate that there are currently 1030 EB applicants waiting in line in Canada.

 

I reached this estimate, based on the fact that, before pandemic (that is 2019), Montreal was processing 72 EBs/month. If we assume that the demand is more or less same then based on the average in 2020 (22 EB/month), 2021 (34 EB/month) and 2022 (77 EB/month till June), the current backlog for EB stands at 1030. 

TLDR : The backlog for F is 1800.76 while the backlog for E is 573.28, less than what @Blueeyes1989 estimated (reason being I consider data points from not just 2019, but 2018 and 2017).
Notice this does not include the constant backlog that each category has and depends on its prepandemic wait time. We can potentially have an estimate on that too given data from visajourney forums of prepandemic years (see how that would be computed at the end of this post).

 

I computed the backlog for E and F by compiling all monthly data present on the DOS website dating back to March 2017. There are three tables below. I explain each one in order for those who are interested. If people are interested, I can share the excel file here.

 

The first one:  the first two rows shows the number of F and E cases processed each year. Note for 2017 we have 10 months of data, and for 2022 it's 6 months.

Next two rows are average processing rate per month for each of those years, e.g. for 2017 for F it's 1408/10=140.8 (because of 10 months of data) and for 2018 for F it's 1259/12=104.91.
Remark: For the E cases, we see a curious uptick in the avg number of cases going from 2017/2018 to 2019. That is the reason why my backlog estimate differs by a lot from @Blueeyes1989's.

The second one is for computing backlogs for F. This table has two sections. 

The first two columns:  We first compute the average processing rate per month (which is avg/month), by using the average of the 3 processing rates  from 2017,2018,2019 i.e. (140.8+104.91+106.66)/3 = 117.46.  Multiply that by 12 you get the first row avg.

The next columns computing the backlogs: simply subtract 1409 from cases processed during 2020 and 2021. For 2022, you gotta compute  117.46*6-846  as this is for 6 months of data. The backlog left is 1800.76 cases.

 

The third table has the exact same description as the second one, but this time it's for E.

If you want the constant backlog to be included too, let's say we know the prepandemic wait time for E is 6 months. Then you just add 6*56.77777=340.6666  to 573.38 which leaves us with 914.04. This would be all cases in E category waiting to be processed.


 

[Blueeyes1989 90]

@immishokThank you for your hard work. 

[EternalWait 77]

I forgot to add that those estimates above are computed with the major assumption that month to month fluctuations would not dramatically change the average annual number of cases. This may seem a safe assumption to make but one could argue: 
"we shouldn't use the annual backlog rate to compute backlogs for 2020-22, but instead hear where the consulate says it's at now (March 2020 for E, July 2020 for F), and multiply the corresponding wait time for the newest cases by the avg/month rate."

This would mean a backlog of size 57.666 * 27months =1556 for E and 117.46*24months = 2819.04 cases for F remaining to be processed.

Note this is the full backlog, i.e. the entire number of cases remaining to be processed. So 1556 should be compared to 914.04 that I computed at the end of my last post, assuming a prepandemic wait time of 6 months for E.

 

I would still lean on the analysis in my previous analysis , since monthly fluctuations is quite likely what's behind the consulate being stuck at March 2020 for E cases for a while now.

Overall, my own conclusion is that the full E backlog is quite likely somewhere between 900 and 1600.

 

IF you are wondering how long a case is gonna take, it all depends on the rank in the backlog. But assume a case that has just been DQ'd. With this backlog size and a constant rate of 76 cases per month as we have had so far in this year, people who have been recently DQ'd should get a wait time of at least 900/76 ~ 11.84 to at most 1600/76~21.05  months. This is assuming that in the meantime the consulate will not increase its processing rate of E as it did for IR and F (almost doubling them to 400 and 200 per month). Finally, take all these predictions with a pound of salt 😆

[Blueeyes1989 90]

@immishok I think, consulate WILL increase the interview rate for EB. Based on their trends, they increased the IR/CR/K visa rates followed by the F visa rates. When they finally reach an acceptable backlog of 2-3 months for F visa, they will focus all their energy on EB. However there is a likelyhood that September interviews will have lots of DV (diversity visa) candidates, because the fiscal year ends on September 30.

[DrJh07 28]

@Blueeyes1989  @immishok Thank you both of you for the wonderful works!

[Van24 13]

Do you think we will see IL for EB this week? Monday is August 1st.
I know I know - nobody has a magic ball, just curious what others think. 

[Blueeyes1989 90]

@Van24 K1 visa got ILs on Friday, IR/CR got IL today. Hence EB should be this week.

[topman 42]

20 hours ago, Blueeyes1989 said:

@Van24 K1 visa got ILs on Friday, IR/CR got IL today. Hence EB should be this week.

@LMIV Please keep us posted if you hear anything this week.

 

I just looked at the EB tracker spreadsheet, and it looks like days to interview letter is estimated to be now 856 days (if you get interview this week). It will be the longest wait until now - 2 years and 4 months!

[Tony05 2]

12 minutes ago, topman said:

@LMIV Please keep us posted if you hear anything this week.

 

I just looked at the EB tracker spreadsheet, and it looks like days to interview letter is estimated to be now 856 days (if you get interview this week). It will be the longest wait until now - 2 years and 4 months!

It’s ridiculous! Any idea to defend EBs’ rights?