New poll shows Democrat leading in every Arizona Senate matchup

[Amica Nostra 4,803]

Kyrsten Sinema is polling ahead of Republicans Martha McSally, Kelli Ward, and Joe Arpaio.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/4/19/17256364/arizona-senate-race-2018-polls-joe-arpaio-kyrsten-sinema

By Dylan Scott@dylanlscottdylan.scott@vox.com  Apr 19, 2018, 10:20am EDT

If Democrats have any hope of retaking the Senate in 2018 while facing an unfavorable map, the Arizona Senate race is a must-win. According to a new survey, the top Democrat there has a real shot to flip retiring Sen. Jeff Flake’s seat in November: She is leading each of her potential Republican opponents in a two-way race.

Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ), the presumptive Democratic candidate, tops establishment favorite Rep. Martha McSally, conservative former state Sen. Kelli Ward, and anti-immigrant Sheriff Joe Arpaio in a general election matchup, a new survey from ABC15 in Phoenix and OH Predictive Insights found.

From the poll, one of the first to evaluate the general election landscape in the Grand Canyon State:

• Sinema: 48 percent; McSally: 42 percent; 10 percent undecided
• Sinema: 50 percent; Ward: 40 percent; 10 percent undecided
• Sinema: 59 percent; Arpaio: 33 percent; 8 percent undecided

It’s just one poll, of course, and the election is many months away. But it seems to confirm what many politicos suspected: Democrats have a real chance to win in Arizona, where Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton by less than 4 points in 2016. The appropriate caveats from CNN’s Harry Enten:

(((Harry Enten)))

 

✔@ForecasterEnten

6h

Lots of "fun" was had with that OH Predictive Insights poll that had Ward up in AZ-GOP Senate primary, but... no other poll taken this year looked like it. Not saying it's wrong, but caution needed. pic.twitter.com/EQjtXcvFj0

(((Harry Enten)))

 

✔@ForecasterEnten

 

 

I should say that while they haven't been gold standard polls... All of the (limited) general election polls in AZ have had Sinema ahead of McSally including this latest one. Sinema also leads Ward/Arpaio by 10+. http://createsend.com/t/i-E1269679105F7FA92540EF23F30FEDED …

5:51 AM - Apr 19, 2018

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As for the Republican primary itself, which will take place in late August, the new ABC15 poll finds Ward in the lead with 36 percent, followed by McSally at 27 percent and Arpaio at 22 percent.

Edited April 19, 2018 by Amica Nostra