Understanding timelines

[Gringuitico 4]

Hi there,

 

I'm actually struggling with understanding what various date predictions are really telling me. When I look right now at the USCIS predictions for Nebraska Service Center (as of 16 April 2018), they're showing 9-11.5 Months, regardless of form type.

 

So, is this the timeline for NOA1 to NOA2? Or no? In another thread, it was suggested that this particular estimate is just for them to START processing your i130.  I'm not sure what the processing time would be (assuming no RFEs).

 

Maybe this is stupid for me to ask, but I believe NOA2 = is i130 approval and petition forwarded to NVC.  Is that right?

 

Finally, I'm seeing various, perhaps conflicting predictions for processing times here, from VisaJourney.  If I got to my profile, I see that my i130 is predicted to be adjudicated the week of May 6.  That would be 200-207 days since my NOA1.  Then, if I go to the IR1/CR1 Visa Historical Processing Times page, I see 2 things that apparently conflict.  The graphs show NOA1 to NOA2 = around 217 days for NSC (which is not far off of my timeline prediction).   

 

 

But then if you jump to the Timeline Statistics page, and filter for the last 6 months (our NOA1 was exactly 6 months ago, tomorrow), it shows the NSC taking roughly 255 days from NOA1 to NOA2

 

and then, because the NOA2 to Interview stage is broken down by country/consulate, I'm seeing an average time from NOA2 to Interview of 163 days for Costa Rica.

 

So, I have a couple key questions.

 

1) Of those 3 conflicting visajourney predictions for NOA1 to NOA2, which one is more... trustworthy?  There's a big difference between 207 days and 255 days.  And, since all of those data are generated automatically by VisaJourney, I'm not sure in which one to place more faith.  And finally, if my application doesn't even START processing for 9-11.5 months (per the USCIS prediction), that would be 270-345 days (GAH)! 

 

Obviously, I know which number I'm rooting for, and obviously, I know these are all just statistical predictions.  I'm just trying to narrow down what VJ's prediction actually is, for me, given the 3 conflicting values for the same event.  At first glance, I'm going to guess the 6 month estimate (of 217 days) is the most likely.  I guess I'll find out here in a month or so anyway, but I'm just trying to manage my expectations appropriately.

 

2) What is the typical lag (upon approval) between Interview and Visa?  Is it instant? The Step-by-Step Guide here doesn't address this.

 

 

 

Edited April 17, 2018 by Gringuitico

[ms_bobdog 501]

1 hour ago, Gringuitico said:

So, I have a couple key questions.

 

1) Of those 3 conflicting visajourney predictions for NOA1 to NOA2, which one is more... trustworthy? I personally would go with the more recent statistics as the historical average doesn't really work if things have slowed down massively in recent months (which IS the case).

I 

1 hour ago, Gringuitico said:

 

2) What is the typical lag (upon approval) between Interview and Visa?  Is it instant? The Step-by-Step Guide here doesn't address this. From what I have read, it is pretty fast. Some get their passports back the next day, but most get it within the week, I believe. Still, it's better to ask or look at data from your consulate-specific filers about this.

 

 

 

 

[geowrian 22,337]

The posted timelines by USCIS are from NOA1 to adjudication (approval or denial). An RFE will extend the timeline either way.

NOA2 = approval of the I-130. Then it goes to NVC for more documents and processing. You then await Case Complete (CC) so they can schedule the interview at the embassy.

 

The chart you posted is a historical trend...it looks like it's over roughly 18 months or so. I'm not sure exactly how they calculate the trend here (likely a rolling window of some sort). It's mostly a tool to help predict future processing timelines.

The table is just raw calculations...in your example it was over the past 6 months. Changing the timeframe will have different results.

 

1 hour ago, Gringuitico said:

1) Of those 3 conflicting visajourney predictions for NOA1 to NOA2, which one is more... trustworthy?  There's a big difference between 207 days and 255 days.  And, since all of those data are generated automatically by VisaJourney, I'm not sure in which one to place more faith.  And finally, if my application doesn't even START processing for 9-11.5 months (per the USCIS prediction), that would be 270-345 days (GAH)! 

I personally tend to look at the timelines for the last 6 months more closely (255 days), but really it doesn't matter. You'll drive yourself crazy trying to set expectations like that with immigration. Your case could be 255 days and nearly every case around yours could be 200 days...it happens. Or maybe you get lucky and yours is sooner than the average. The numbers are just estimates, and do sometimes vary greatly as processing times can changed pretty quickly. I suggest to stop counting thed days and watching it, and focus on what needs to be done at NVC, for the embassy, and - most of all - what you'll do once the beneficairy is in in the US. That's what will make or break you, not worrying about different calculations to estimate the most likely timeframes for your case to process.

 

And this is coming from the guy who wrote the scripts that some members here use to try to get a handle on actual I-129F (fiance petition) processing timelines (not just VJ members). Data is good, but so is focusing on the parts you can control.

 

Quote

2) What is the typical lag (upon approval) between Interview and Visa?  Is it instant? The Step-by-Step Guide here doesn't address this.

This varies by embassy/consulate, and the reason for any delay. If somebody is approved, then typically (at most consulates I can think of) within 10 business days is common between interview and having the visa affixed to the passport and returned. Obviously some are faster.

There are also delays if somebody gets a 221(g) to submit more documents, or if they go through extended background checks, or any other form of AP after the interview.

Edited April 17, 2018 by geowrian

[Gringuitico 4]

Thanks very much for all that.  I agree completely that obsessing over the timeline (i.e. something I have no control over) is not a healthy past time.  I try not to obsess over it in general. I only started this particular odyssey because VisaJourney sent me an automated email asking me if I had made any progress, and then told me to go look at my estimated dates for the NOA2.  So, when I saw the estimated dates of May 6-13 for adjudicating my i130, I got super hopeful (briefly), because that seemed to be useful intelligence.  But then I looked a bit deeper to try to understand where that number came from, and the variety of answers was actually further disheartening than if VisaJourney had just left me alone.

 

In Costa Rica, we'd call this an "alegrón de burro".  You get something that seemed like it was about to be really nice... but then you get the carpet yanked out from underneath you.  In the end, I'm in exactly the same place today as I was before I looked, but now I feel worse about it, because they teased me with feeling better.  Anyway, I will definitely get over it. 

 

I will go back to accepting that nothing's in stone, for nothing is known.

 

And I'll just focus, as you mentioned, on controlling the things that are in my power, like making sure I have all the information available that I can foresee they MIGHT ask me, in the event of an RFE, and building my life for the eventual move (in the middle of buying a house, right now, so that we'll have a family home when she and her daughter eventually move here).

[NikLR 13,227]

Everything written on VJ is due to people filling out their timelines.  We hope people are accurate about it and actually do it, but many do not.  

So I suggest expecting 9-10m for your I-130.  If it's less then celebrate. Then once you get to the NVC stage, the NVC monthly filers thread will help you judge how fast that process is going at that time.  

[Ryan H 3,812]

Moved from Process & Procedures to Progress Reports.

[Nuj 28]

Although no one can know for sure the NOA2 date i think that it is not wise to follow USCIS data it is very unreliable. My Service Center is Potomac and it says they process in 8-11 months but  i receieved NOA2 in 6.5 months. Just use visa journey dates to guesstamate and take the free time to prepare for the NVC stage. Good Luck:)

[Gringuitico 4]

FYI, our application was approved! Got our NOA2s today. Total was 183 days for this step.

 

Thanks for the help and support.

[NikLR 13,227]

Congrats on NOA2!

[ms_bobdog 501]

4 hours ago, Gringuitico said:

FYI, our application was approved! Got our NOA2s today. Total was 183 days for this step.

 

Thanks for the help and support.

Congrats! Be forewarned that you will be up for quite a bit of waiting for a case number. Around 5 weeks for regular processing and 8 weeks and more for pivot cases. The good news is, they are really fast with case complete now!

[Gringuitico 4]

Okidoke. Thanks for the heads up.

 

I'll work on getting my tax transcripts in the meantime.