Theory on processing times

[Naes 12,205]

6 minutes ago, SvetikP said:

@Naes, my heart goes out to you. It's unfortunate to have to wait longer than others for no apparent reason. 

 

How long have you been waiting?

I’m just outside of my average, not that long or out of pattern. I believe I’m 10 days out of average and 2 weeks out of my filers date but this is normal as my month is still on focus. So when a date gets “the touch” even under normal wait times it can take 1-2 months for another person to get theirs... I’ll survive hehe 

 

By the way I didnt write these because of my situation or anything  it’s just when someone researches and hits a page who doesn’t know about how things are going what they’ll see may only be that one topic only and I myself had problems on some topics before so I just wanted put the counter discussion on theory.

[SvetikP 22]

@Naes, I understand and appreciate your input. Input from others is the reason I posted my idea. 

[j&ana 363]

1 hour ago, SvetikP said:

Hmm. Yes I am aware that there are young people with divorce and police records. I was stating that 'generally' younger people do not have divorce yet in their past. I am pretty sure that taken demographically 20 year olds will have less divorces in their past than 40 year olds.

 

If a person has a divorce in their past then they need to submit paperwork that proves the divorce is final. 

Hence.. more time spent by USCIS examining this case. 

The age at which you marry may have an effect on your chances of divorce. Overall, those who marry before age 25 tend to be more likely to divorce than those who marry after that age. And more recent research suggests that the best age to get married seems to be somewhere between 28 and 32. Still, in general, marrying later in life tends to point to better odds of staying married.

So if a person marries  a person at 20 then they are more likely to be divorce. if they stay married then they will become an older person still married

 

 

https://www.refinery29.com/2017/01/137440/divorce-rate-in-america-statistics?bucketed=true

Edited March 30, 2018 by j&ana

[FernandLevi 36]

My theory is Oct, November and December has less applications. Specially due to the holidays in November and December so less applications means quicker processing through the month. Just my opinion. Of there's 200 adjusticators(so) and 5000 applications vs. 200 adjusticators vs 3,500 application s for the month, it will go quicker.

 

IMO also The applications that were typed up would be quicker than the one that was written. The ones that had no criminal background would be quicker.

 

We went from 200 days peak at CSC to 193 peak. So hopefully it LL continue the downward trend.

[SvetikP 22]

Fernand, that's along the lines I'm thinking. No criminal background, should be processed quicker. The less USCIS has to review the quicker it should go. However as we have seen from the cases of Janet3, and Naes, it still took/taking 6 months. 

[Sarah&Facundo 595]

My theory is there is generally something weird about October/November. Last year when I filed, we only waited two weeks between NOA1 and NOA2. There were others in that exact same time period that reported the same. I heard there were strange things like that happening around the same time period this year too.

[DennisWaldron 124]

Im sure things like a criminal background and divorces may cause some additional checks. 

 

But what we are seeing.....if almost same exact petitions are filed on the same day.

One could be approved in 170 while the other 240 days.

No Rhyme or Reason Why.... Just that they are seperate petitions one has nothing to do with the other.

 

My case in point.... the only anomalies are i was divorced once.

100% there were petitions filed around my same age, and the same date of my petition that involved a divorse.  Though they were approved at 170 days.

While i am at 221 days. 

 

And there are still cases before me that have no divorces and are in there 20's.

 

Haha... we will never know there means or methods. 😁😁

 

 

 

 

 

[John & Rose 7,239]

I think we can agree that there is no rhyme or reason.  I'm old and it did take a long time.  Trinab80 is young and it took longer. Martin is young and it is taking longer.  It may have combinations of countries (high fraud countries take longer than low fraud countries) and maybe age.  We really will never understand.  

[geowrian 22,337]

1 hour ago, John & Rose said:

It may have combinations of countries (high fraud countries take longer than low fraud countries) and maybe age.

Nationality wouldn't be a factor for the I-129F stage. I haven't run this report in a while, but here's what it was the last time I ran it (Sept. 2017):

 

URL: http://www.visajourney.com/timeline/filterlist.php?cfl=

Options:

Visa Type: K-1

Beneficiary's Country: <Varies>

Service Center: CSC

Date I-129F Sent to the Service Center (start) : 2017-01-01

Date I-129F Sent to the Service Center (end) <empty>

 

Taiwan (2017 filers): 116 days from NOA1 to NOA2 on average

China (2017 filers): 115 days from NOA1 to NOA2 on average

UK (2017) filers: 111 days from NOA1 to NOA2 on average

Ghana (2017 filers): 100 days from NOA1 to NOA2 on average

India (2017 filers): 119 days from NOA1 to NOA2 on average

 

Edit: Updated numbers for petitions sent from July 2017 onwards:

Taiwan: 197 days

China: 183 days

UK: 190 days

Ghana: 186 days

India: 189 days

Edited March 30, 2018 by geowrian

[John & Rose 7,239]

28 minutes ago, geowrian said:

Nationality wouldn't be a factor for the I-129F stage. I haven't run this report in a while, but here's what it was the last time I ran it (Sept. 2017):

 

URL: http://www.visajourney.com/timeline/filterlist.php?cfl=

Options:

Visa Type: K-1

Beneficiary's Country: <Varies>

Service Center: CSC

Date I-129F Sent to the Service Center (start) : 2017-01-01

Date I-129F Sent to the Service Center (end) <empty>

 

Taiwan (2017 filers): 116 days from NOA1 to NOA2 on average

China (2017 filers): 115 days from NOA1 to NOA2 on average

UK (2017) filers: 111 days from NOA1 to NOA2 on average

Ghana (2017 filers): 100 days from NOA1 to NOA2 on average

India (2017 filers): 119 days from NOA1 to NOA2 on average

 

Edit: Updated numbers for petitions sent from July 2017 onwards:

Taiwan: 197 days

China: 183 days

UK: 190 days

Ghana: 186 days

India: 189 days

Very interesting.  I thought there was a marked difference but there really is no pattern at all.

[Lucky2Lucky 2,526]

At times it seems as if there is no rhyme or reason for the wait times. I think some of it has to do with specific countries/embassies. Just my two cents.

[Nevad@ 26]

You would think it makes sense but it probably does not -  a 20 something year old may have a bigger travel, employment, or address history that'd take way longer to investigate than a 40+ year old who has lived in 1-2 different addresses. 

[John & Rose 7,239]

30 minutes ago, Nevad@ said:

You would think it makes sense but it probably does not -  a 20 something year old may have a bigger travel, employment, or address history that'd take way longer to investigate than a 40+ year old who has lived in 1-2 different addresses. 

Keep in mind that the "background check" only takes minutes and the adjudicator only spends 10 to 15 minutes on each petition, per an older thread with a Q&A with a former adjudicator.  A vast majority of the time is just spent sitting and waiting to be looked at.  If you have ever bought a gun in the States you know the background check is a simple input of a name and SSN into a federal database.  If you are clear, the check is done.  It takes under a minute.  If they find something it obviously takes more time and can even mean your petition will be transferred to the Vermont Service Center.

 

Delays for security check is just another excuse in their hands.  How can you argue with them?  Same with the I-94.  They know where you travel and when you travel.  Again, that is just another minute of their time to punch in the name and passport number.  What can they check with a divorce?  If the paperwork isn't complete they issue an RFE.  If it is complete, the divorce check is done.  They do not contact your Secretary of State or County Clerk.  The fact is a good adjudicator can look at the file and make a decision within minutes.  It doesn't matter how many addresses because they search via SSN and passport number.  1 address or 50 addresses doesn't impact the time it takes to run the background check.

 

All the adjudicator is doing is seeing if you have met at least once in the two years prior to filing, that the relationship appears to be bona fide and that both parties are legally free and clear to marry.  That is all they do at that stage.  They run a quick background check and look to see if the paperwork looks good without any red flags and they are done.

Edited March 30, 2018 by John & Rose

[Nevad@ 26]

5 minutes ago, John & Rose said:

Keep in mind that the "background check" only takes minutes and the adjudicator only spends 10 to 15 minutes on each petition, per an older thread with a Q&A with a former adjudicator.  A vast majority of the time is just spent sitting and waiting to be looked at.  If you have ever bought a gun in the States you know the background check is a simple input of a name and SSN into a federal database.  If you are clear, the check is done.  It takes under a minute.  If they find something it obviously takes more time and can even mean your petition will be transferred to the Vermont Service Center.

 

Delays for security check is just another excuse in their hands.  How can you argue with them?  Same with the I-94.  They know where you travel and when you travel.  Again, that is just another minute of their time to punch in the name and passport number.  What can they check with a divorce?  If the paperwork isn't complete they issue an RFE.  If it is complete, the divorce check is done.  They do not contact your Secretary of State or County Clerk.  The fact is a good adjudicator can look at the file and make a decision within minutes.  It doesn't matter how many addresses because they search via SSN and passport number.  1 address or 50 addresses doesn't impact the time it takes to run the background check.

That's very interesting, thank you. I am new to this forum so had no idea about the thread you mentioned. So, the above is for the petitioner, what about the beneficiary? Hopefully, takes only a few days if not minutes.  

I did read something here the other day that the date of your submission does not mean much as all the applications show up as a pile in a big bin and your application may be either on top or on the bottom of that whole pile... There goes the waiting time.

[Boiler 45,525]

As we say on VJ, age is just a number.