January 2018 Filers

[LuFlolady 881]

45 minutes ago, Suny & LeLe said:

Omgg..... can they just start January already hahaha. We still have November and December to go  i hope they do 2 months in one months so they can start January soon haha!  is that too much to ask?

I know the feeling but they should start November later this week or the beginning of next week... So we are closer than what we were!

[LuFlolady 881]

On 4/21/2018 at 9:15 PM, Naes said:

Hello Everyone!

 

Finally finished with January to March! And cleaned it up and everything  

 

I will lastly try to wrap up April before I leave for Turkey in May!

 

So here goes recent numbers first :

 

 Please note that days with little to no approval update has Silent NOA2s. 

Lately most silent noa2s are updated ONLY on the new website.

Please check for personal status updates on both websites; new website usually has backdated updates to the previous day around 4am-6am PST the next day! 

Old website, same info as apps: https://egov.uscis.gov/casestatus/landing.do

New website need to log in: https://myaccount.uscis.dhs.gov

 

Weekly Overall - all movement

 

	June	July	Aug	Sept	Oct	Total
04/16/18	9	19	31	84	71	214
04/17/18	2	8	23	25	51	109
04/18/18	17	22	39	51	118	247
04/19/18	20	23	31	66	181	321
04/20/18	4	5	3	5	15	32
Total	52	77	127	231	436	923

 

 

Weekly Overall - Approvals Only

 

	June	July	Aug	Sept	Oct	Total
04/16/18	7	6	12	38	47	110
04/18/18	12	9	29	23	79	152
04/19/18	14	12	18	34	102	180
04/20/18	1					1
Total	34	27	59	95	228	443

 

 

Monthly Situation:

 

 For newcomers: 

   Excluded are the cases nobody needs to think about here. (Rejected at the beginning)

   Approvals on non-active months are 99% expedite cases (yes we do have a weird happening in November for only cases on November 16... don't know why, don't know how...unless you want to believe you'll be that 1 out of 4000 and get disappointed I would suggest going with the obvious logic)

   Touched means the case is no longer has the "case received" status..something updated like name or birthdate or address, or got an rfe.... 

   Virgin are cases that are "never been touched" (and yes it is all about Like a Virgin cause it still rings in my head) so simply "case received". But I got so tired of seeing case received on the website... I am not using that! 

   Cases that looks "Virgin" in previous months other than Active

    Not all cases get updated on the old site, this number (same as "Case tracker app" numbers) will only show those. June had plenty of cases that got Silent NOA2s and we are still having them highly. I suggest cutting at least 30-40% of Virgin cases to guess real numbers. However, this does not mean nobody is waiting from these months, Even just on VJ we have friends still waiting from June. 

  Every case is different and not all cases with the same date will be adjudicated at once.

 

  Monthly Numbers:

 

Active Month : October

Last date touched : October 26th (Received date)

Expected November start : April 26 - 27  

* December cases are not total due to validation errors. I would expect an extra 200-300 cases on the month. 

   This is also the reason why December cases are not up to date. If your case had validation error and it resolved please let me know.

 

	Approved	Virgin	Excluded	Touched	Total
June 17	1906	829	443	863	4041
July 17	1541	1055	427	773	3796
Aug 17	1538	1308	450	779	4075
Sep 17	1304	1212	326	756	3598
Oct 17	797	2544	281	520	4142
Nov 17	19	3235	227	96	3577
Dec 17		3297	184	28	3509
Jan 18	1	3314	176	81	3572
Feb 18	5	3527	184	92	3808
Mar 18	1	4015	293	63	4372
Total	7112	24336	2991	4051	38490

 

 

 

January Cases Per Dates :

 

SUPER EXCITED TO SEE JANUBEES! DATA

Edited April 23, 2018 by LuFlolady

[LuFlolady 881]

17 hours ago, Faycol said:

Hi.....a January filer here....hoping for quick NOA 2 for all of us..... Fingers crossed

Welcome to the Journey!

[Deehotstepper 230]

thanks @Naes for the scans. the numbers for November and December seem higher than i thought. still hoping for a NOA2 in early June.

[lilit829 368]

20 hours ago, Snuffles said:

We are still a week from 100 days but yes, feels a bit like an achievement. A little. Hoping that means we’re all just over halfway to getting our NOA2!

 

Here’s our dinner date from the weekend!

 

This is adorable! You guys win couple of the week! 

[GP1977 288]

5 minutes ago, Deehotstepper said:

thanks @Naes for the scans. the numbers for November and December seem higher than i thought. still hoping for a NOA2 in early June.

Not to be negative but  early June is highly unlikely. They are on 10/27 right now and are averaging about 30 days to get through a month. I’m hoping they touch January late June. Keep in mind they don’t go by months they go by dates. So if you are a late January filer they won’t be touching your date as soon as they touch Jan 2.

[lilit829 368]

I also got better news this week guys, my family and I decided to go to see my fiance and his family in September for his brother's wedding. So Im feeling a bit better about NOA2, hopefully it comes in June so maybe he can fly back with us but even if it comes a little after we won't have to spend so much time without seeing each other again. So back to a "funner" countdown. T-MINUS 4 months. 

Edited April 23, 2018 by lilit829

[Deehotstepper 230]

2 hours ago, GP1977 said:

Not to be negative but  early June is highly unlikely. They are on 10/27 right now and are averaging about 30 days to get through a month. I’m hoping they touch January late June. Keep in mind they don’t go by months they go by dates. So if you are a late January filer they won’t be touching your date as soon as they touch Jan 2.

they had been averaging 21 days per month until October, so November can be back to business as usual, we dont know until they begin November. Also They do not necessarily work in chronological order like you stated, for example they can start Jan 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and move to Jan 8th and come back to Jan 5th, 6th, then move to Jan 12th. We have seen this trend month after month, hence why couples who filled in dates that were skipped for dates further into the month, can be upset. it is very likely they will begin November this week. 

[GP1977 288]

7 minutes ago, Deehotstepper said:

they had been averaging 21 days per month until October, so November can be back to business as usual, we dont know until they begin November. Also They do not necessarily work in chronological order like you stated, for example they can start Jan 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and move to Jan 8th and come back to Jan 5th, 6th, then move to Jan 12th. We have seen this trend month after month, hence why couples who filled in dates that were skipped for dates further into the month, can be upset. it is very likely they will begin November this week. 

Sorry that’s not correct.  they only averaged 21 days 1 month and I hope they get back to that pace for all months but prior to October they were moving much more slowly.  Please see below. 

 

May Had started October October 1

June – 44 Days to Start (Started November 10)

July – 57 Days to Start ( Started Jan 10)

August – 26 Days to Start (Started February 5, 2018

September – 21 Days to Start (Started February 26, 2018)

October -  29 Days to Start (Started March 27, 2018)

November?

 

also, 

 

Also, they might skip a day but they won’t touch Jan 2 for the first time and then touch Jan 27th. A day or two maybe but they work on order (besides the crazy nov 16 cases they already approved) but I think when you saw then skip days it was because of a holiday weekend.  They won’t jump 25 days. Sorry

[GP1977 288]

9 minutes ago, Deehotstepper said:

they had been averaging 21 days per month until October, so November can be back to business as usual, we dont know until they begin November. Also They do not necessarily work in chronological order like you stated, for example they can start Jan 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and move to Jan 8th and come back to Jan 5th, 6th, then move to Jan 12th. We have seen this trend month after month, hence why couples who filled in dates that were skipped for dates further into the month, can be upset. it is very likely they will begin November this week. 

And yes I agree they begin November this week. If they start on Wednesday that means it’s 30 days to start nov from

when they first touched October 

[Deehotstepper 230]

26 minutes ago, GP1977 said:

Sorry that’s not correct.  they only averaged 21 days 1 month and I hope they get back to that pace for all months but prior to October they were moving much more slowly.  Please see below. 

 

May Had started October October 1

June – 44 Days to Start (Started November 10)

July – 57 Days to Start ( Started Jan 10)

August – 26 Days to Start (Started February 5, 2018

September – 21 Days to Start (Started February 26, 2018)

October -  29 Days to Start (Started March 27, 2018)

November?

 

also, 

 

Also, they might skip a day but they won’t touch Jan 2 for the first time and then touch Jan 27th. A day or two maybe but they work on order (besides the crazy nov 16 cases they already approved) but I think when you saw then skip days it was because of a holiday weekend.  They won’t jump 25 days. Sorry

You are not correct. 3 months do not make a trend. Because they processed May 2017, June 2017 and July 2017 in more than 30 days doesn't make it the norm. By the law of averages, 3 differences out of 12 months doesn't spell for a predication like you have always tried to push in this forum. The bottom line is none of us work for the USCIS, so we can only interpret the data as we wish and make assumptions. No one here is ever 100 per cent correct,m not even you. No one knows exactly what they will do in November and December. so instead of being negative, i choose optimism, you are feel to do as you wish.

Edited April 23, 2018 by Deehotstepper

[GP1977 288]

11 minutes ago, Deehotstepper said:

You are not correct. 3 months do not make a trend. Because they processed May 2017, June 2017 and July 2017 in more than 30 days doesn't make it the norm. By the law of averages, 3 differences out of 12 months doesn't spell for a predication like you have always tried to push in this forum. The bottom line is none of us work for the USCIS, so we can only interpret the data as we wish and make assumptions. No one here is ever 100 per cent correct,m not even you. No one knows exactly what they will do in November and December. so instead of being negative, i choose optimism, you are feel to do as

Edited April 23, 2018 by GP1977

[Deehotstepper 230]

4 minutes ago, GP1977 said:

 

Well, Lets hope and dream that my prediction is correct and we will let yours perhaps be the factual dates. we will see what USCIS does.

Edited April 23, 2018 by Deehotstepper

[GP1977 288]

19 minutes ago, Deehotstepper said:

You are not correct. 3 months do not make a trend. Because they processed May 2017, June 2017 and July 2017 in more than 30 days doesn't make it the norm. By the law of averages, 3 differences out of 12 months doesn't spell for a predication like you have always tried to push in this forum. The bottom line is none of us work for the USCIS, so we can only interpret the data as we wish and make assumptions. No one here is ever 100 per cent correct,m not even you. No one knows exactly what they will do in November and December. so instead of being negative, i choose optimism, you are feel to do as you wish.

.actually I am not basing it on 12 months, I am basing it on Six months. I don’t have a crystal ball but I have reasonable expectations. I want this process to happen as fast as you and everyone else. But it’s unreasonable to expect noa2 in early June for a late January filer. 

Edited April 23, 2018 by GP1977

[Naes 12,205]

Funny.

 

I heard this same exact conversation back in June filers thread 5 months ago...