January 2018 Filers

[GP1977 288]

32 minutes ago, Kyle&Ana said:

Well i'm an april filer and we are counting NOA2 for october.... 

November 2017  ==>may 2018

December 2017 ==>may^ june 2018

January==> june^ july 2018

February==> july ^agosto 2018

March==> september 2018

April==>october :/ 2018

 

But being optimistic i have read that less ppl file in early months of the year if that is true,  we could be a little bit faster...  but is just a theory! I was watching april filers in 2017 and they was processed by ending july-agosto-sept.... but let's wait this painful process  

Good luck to all and guys ur time is coming!!!

 

 

Yes that is very realistic.  The backlog really started with petitions that were filed in May of last year and it may have been earlier than that?

But I Know that it took them 44 days from once they started May to just touch June and once they touched June it took them 57 days to touch July. 

They have been running less than 30 since then and if they start November by this Thursday it would be 30 days from starting October to November.  We just hope they keep the same pace or get faster. I honestly don't think because one month has a few hundred less petitions than another month it would have any impact.  I say this only because we don't know if adjudicators process the same visa petition all day/ever day.  I would imagine they are cross trained to work on H1B/CR1, etc, etc and they allocate staffing resources accordingly.  I don't know for sure but its just a thought.  With technology today you would think they could just automate this entire process and we could be done with a click of a button!

 

 

[JGHH 76]

Anyone get super excited to see you hit their 100 day mark?  I was away presenting at a conference and came home to see our case was recieved 101 days ago!  It doesn't seem that long ago and that makes it seem like the rest of the days will go by fast too!  

[Naes 12,205]

Hello Everyone!

 

Finally finished with January to March! And cleaned it up and everything  

 

I will lastly try to wrap up April before I leave for Turkey in May!

 

So here goes recent numbers first :

 

 Please note that days with little to no approval update has Silent NOA2s. 

Lately most silent noa2s are updated ONLY on the new website.

Please check for personal status updates on both websites; new website usually has backdated updates to the previous day around 4am-6am PST the next day! 

Old website, same info as apps: https://egov.uscis.gov/casestatus/landing.do

New website need to log in: https://myaccount.uscis.dhs.gov

 

Weekly Overall - all movement

 

	June	July	Aug	Sept	Oct	Total
04/16/18	9	19	31	84	71	214
04/17/18	2	8	23	25	51	109
04/18/18	17	22	39	51	118	247
04/19/18	20	23	31	66	181	321
04/20/18	4	5	3	5	15	32
Total	52	77	127	231	436	923

 

 

Weekly Overall - Approvals Only

 

	June	July	Aug	Sept	Oct	Total
04/16/18	7	6	12	38	47	110
04/18/18	12	9	29	23	79	152
04/19/18	14	12	18	34	102	180
04/20/18	1					1
Total	34	27	59	95	228	443

 

 

Monthly Situation:

 

 For newcomers: 

   Excluded are the cases nobody needs to think about here. (Rejected at the beginning)

   Approvals on non-active months are 99% expedite cases (yes we do have a weird happening in November for only cases on November 16... don't know why, don't know how...unless you want to believe you'll be that 1 out of 4000 and get disappointed I would suggest going with the obvious logic)

   Touched means the case is no longer has the "case received" status..something updated like name or birthdate or address, or got an rfe.... 

   Virgin are cases that are "never been touched" (and yes it is all about Like a Virgin cause it still rings in my head) so simply "case received". But I got so tired of seeing case received on the website... I am not using that! 

   Cases that looks "Virgin" in previous months other than Active

    Not all cases get updated on the old site, this number (same as "Case tracker app" numbers) will only show those. June had plenty of cases that got Silent NOA2s and we are still having them highly. I suggest cutting at least 30-40% of Virgin cases to guess real numbers. However, this does not mean nobody is waiting from these months, Even just on VJ we have friends still waiting from June. 

  Every case is different and not all cases with the same date will be adjudicated at once.

 

  Monthly Numbers:

 

Active Month : October

Last date touched : October 26th (Received date)

Expected November start : April 26 - 27  

* December cases are not total due to validation errors. I would expect an extra 200-300 cases on the month. 

   This is also the reason why December cases are not up to date. If your case had validation error and it resolved please let me know.

 

	Approved	Virgin	Excluded	Touched	Total
June 17	1906	829	443	863	4041
July 17	1541	1055	427	773	3796
Aug 17	1538	1308	450	779	4075
Sep 17	1304	1212	326	756	3598
Oct 17	797	2544	281	520	4142
Nov 17	19	3235	227	96	3577
Dec 17		3297	184	28	3509
Jan 18	1	3314	176	81	3572
Feb 18	5	3527	184	92	3808
Mar 18	1	4015	293	63	4372
Total	7112	24336	2991	4051	38490

 

 

 

January Cases Per Dates :

 

[Lucy&Jason 807]

11 minutes ago, Naes said:

 

 

January Cases Per Dates :

 

I am a January 12th received date. Seems like this day of January has the most no. Of filers. Does this mean they will start to approve this day since it has the most number of filers? Or still random?

 

I have seen this kind of scenario for October.

Edited April 22, 2018 by ShyLucy

[JGHH 76]

12 minutes ago, Naes said:

Hello Everyone!

 

Finally finished with January to March! And cleaned it up and everything  

 

I will lastly try to wrap up April before I leave for Turkey in May!

 

So here goes recent numbers first :

 

 Please note that days with little to no approval update has Silent NOA2s. 

Lately most silent noa2s are updated ONLY on the new website.

Please check for personal status updates on both websites; new website usually has backdated updates to the previous day around 4am-6am PST the next day! 

Old website, same info as apps: https://egov.uscis.gov/casestatus/landing.do

New website need to log in: https://myaccount.uscis.dhs.gov

 

Weekly Overall - all movement

 

	June	July	Aug	Sept	Oct	Total
04/16/18	9	19	31	84	71	214
04/17/18	2	8	23	25	51	109
04/18/18	17	22	39	51	118	247
04/19/18	20	23	31	66	181	321
04/20/18	4	5	3	5	15	32
Total	52	77	127	231	436	923

 

 

Weekly Overall - Approvals Only

 

	June	July	Aug	Sept	Oct	Total
04/16/18	7	6	12	38	47	110
04/18/18	12	9	29	23	79	152
04/19/18	14	12	18	34	102	180
04/20/18	1					1
Total	34	27	59	95	228	443

 

 

Monthly Situation:

 

 For newcomers: 

   Excluded are the cases nobody needs to think about here. (Rejected at the beginning)

   Approvals on non-active months are 99% expedite cases (yes we do have a weird happening in November for only cases on November 16... don't know why, don't know how...unless you want to believe you'll be that 1 out of 4000 and get disappointed I would suggest going with the obvious logic)

   Touched means the case is no longer has the "case received" status..something updated like name or birthdate or address, or got an rfe.... 

   Virgin are cases that are "never been touched" (and yes it is all about Like a Virgin cause it still rings in my head) so simply "case received". But I got so tired of seeing case received on the website... I am not using that! 

   Cases that looks "Virgin" in previous months other than Active

    Not all cases get updated on the old site, this number (same as "Case tracker app" numbers) will only show those. June had plenty of cases that got Silent NOA2s and we are still having them highly. I suggest cutting at least 30-40% of Virgin cases to guess real numbers. However, this does not mean nobody is waiting from these months, Even just on VJ we have friends still waiting from June. 

  Every case is different and not all cases with the same date will be adjudicated at once.

 

  Monthly Numbers:

 

Active Month : October

Last date touched : October 26th (Received date)

Expected November start : April 26 - 27  

* December cases are not total due to validation errors. I would expect an extra 200-300 cases on the month. 

   This is also the reason why December cases are not up to date. If your case had validation error and it resolved please let me know.

 

	Approved	Virgin	Excluded	Touched	Total
June 17	1906	829	443	863	4041
July 17	1541	1055	427	773	3796
Aug 17	1538	1308	450	779	4075
Sep 17	1304	1212	326	756	3598
Oct 17	797	2544	281	520	4142
Nov 17	19	3235	227	96	3577
Dec 17		3297	184	28	3509
Jan 18	1	3314	176	81	3572
Feb 18	5	3527	184	92	3808
Mar 18	1	4015	293	63	4372
Total	7112	24336	2991	4051	38490

 

 

 

January Cases Per Dates :

 

Am I reading out correctly? There's 1 January approval already?  (I know this is nothing typical....). Thanks!

[Naes 12,205]

1 minute ago, ShyLucy said:

I am a January 12th received date. Seems like this day of January has the most no. Of filers. Does this mean they will start to approve this day since it has the most number of filers? Or still random?

 

I have seen this kind of scenario for October.

It is not that kind of scenario but it just looked like that on the scannable part of the list

That's because of the probability and statistics really, because there are more number of cases it is easier to see their approvals online. 

 

However yes you will see that date (which is a lot because it is either a Monday or the first working day of the week) more than others overall. 

 

Nothing is random really; it will start with a date and continue forward the rest is up to how a case is, if it came back from background checks, if it reached to an adjudicators case etc.  And then we pray our adjudicator is not that lazy one....

[Lucy&Jason 807]

2 minutes ago, JGHH said:

Am I reading out correctly? There's 1 January approval already?  (I know this is nothing typical....). Thanks!

I believe it’s an expedited case. Just correct me if I’m wrong.

[Naes 12,205]

1 minute ago, JGHH said:

Am I reading out correctly? There's 1 January approval already?  (I know this is nothing typical....). Thanks!

Yes as I explained that is an expedited case (confirmed) 

 

-Please read what I wrote too....it explains everything.

[Lucy&Jason 807]

10 minutes ago, Naes said:

It is not that kind of scenario but it just looked like that on the scannable part of the list

That's because of the probability and statistics really, because there are more number of cases it is easier to see their approvals online. 

 

However yes you will see that date (which is a lot because it is either a Monday or the first working day of the week) more than others overall. 

 

Nothing is random really; it will start with a date and continue forward the rest is up to how a case is, if it came back from background checks, if it reached to an adjudicators case etc.  And then we pray our adjudicator is not that lazy one....

Thanks @Naes you are such a great help. Seeing these scans really gave us such an awesome visajourney. 

 

There is more reason now to look forward to for the day.

Edited April 22, 2018 by ShyLucy

[Lucy&Jason 807]

1 hour ago, JGHH said:

Anyone get super excited to see you hit their 100 day mark?  I was away presenting at a conference and came home to see our case was recieved 101 days ago!  It doesn't seem that long ago and that makes it seem like the rest of the days will go by fast too!  

I’m on day 100th now. I feel like we just filed yesterday . Never thought its been 100days(not to mention my depressing and anxious days 😂😂😂).

 

Half way to go til we will start seeing January approvals... Hurray!!!

[Donovan/Kin 28]

2 hours ago, JGHH said:

Anyone get super excited to see you hit their 100 day mark?  I was away presenting at a conference and came home to see our case was recieved 101 days ago!  It doesn't seem that long ago and that makes it seem like the rest of the days will go by fast too!  

Yeah I just hit that day myself and it does feel like it wasn’t that long. I sure do hope it’s not that much longer. I’m hoping Jan 2018 filers will start receiving NOA2s in late May throughout June. It can’t get here any faster.

[Snuffles 394]

Thank you @Naes I'm a bit of a nerd and love seeing this data! Thank you so much for putting it all together!

[lilit829 368]

10 hours ago, Donovan/Kin said:

Yeah I just hit that day myself and it does feel like it wasn’t that long. I sure do hope it’s not that much longer. I’m hoping Jan 2018 filers will start receiving NOA2s in late May throughout June. It can’t get here any faster.

I was hoping late May but that's pushing it at this point. We're almost at the end of April and they still haven't started with November. Hopefully they start December mid-may so we can start seeing something by mid- late- June. 

[Snuffles 394]

We are still a week from 100 days but yes, feels a bit like an achievement. A little. Hoping that means we’re all just over halfway to getting our NOA2!

 

Here’s our dinner date from the weekend!

 

[VickeySis 318]

15 minutes ago, Snuffles said:

We are still a week from 100 days but yes, feels a bit like an achievement. A little. Hoping that means we’re all just over halfway to getting our NOA2!

 

Here’s our dinner date from the weekend!

 

@Snuffles  sooooooo sweet. You all are the cutest😍😍😍

 

Girl we got this, we can do it♥️♥️♥️♥️♥️