January 2018 Filers

[microcebus 40]

40 minutes ago, GP1977 said:

 Taking the monthly situation numbers from @Naes and it looks like our wonderful government immigration entity has picked up the pace (albeit it might be to early to tell if it will continue  but it looks promising), I realistically think that we could have noa2 in 5 months. We will see how quickly they get thru August but if they can work thru that quickly,  they should fly thru sept November and December as petitions for this months are much lower than in prior months. Fingers crossed

 

	June	July	Aug	Sept	Oct	Nov	Dec	Total
Approved	1398	459	13	6		1		1877
Touched	1050	356	139	129	128	67	28	1897
Virgins	1221	2595	3519	3176	3770	3304	3297	20882
Excluded	372	386	404	287	244	205	184	2082
Total	4041	3796	4075	3598	4142	3577	3509	26738

 

Being new to this (just got my NOA1 in the mail 3 days ago), is there a guide for how to interpret this chart?  I just did a quick Google search of this site on Approved Touched Virgins Excluded and didn't turn up anything.

 

And is this intended to show approval rate or only processing time?  I know that the rejection rate on K-1s has gotten higher in the past year.  I'm very concerned about my case because my income for 2017 was between 100-125% FPL, I'm self-employed, and I don't think I can get a joint sponsor.  If this chart is showing a rejection rate, the numbers after June seem pretty dismal to me!

Edited January 30, 2018 by microcebus
read -> interpret

[Naes 12,205]

6 minutes ago, microcebus said:

Being new to this (just got my NOA1 in the mail 3 days ago), is there a guide for how to interpret this chart?  I just did a quick Google search of this site on Approved Touched Virgins Excluded and didn't turn up anything.

 

And is this intended to show approval rate or only processing time?  I know that the rejection rate on K-1s has gotten higher in the past year.  I'm very concerned about my case because my income for 2017 was between 100-125% FPL, I'm self-employed, and I don't think I can get a joint sponsor.  If this chart is showing a rejection rate, the numbers after June seem pretty dismal to me!

1) virgins are the case status without any update (case received) meaning never been touched

  touched: rfe and updates (the first case status has changed

2) it is just to have a view overall

3) excluded is rejections but mostly based on technical reason such as wrong form wrong amount etc.

4) you can use it for anything you want. Right now they are doing july and most of those other months are having approvals of expedited cases.

 

5)your income plays no role at this stage. This is only noa2 approval. And you do t give them I-134 which has your income until the embassy. Most k1 refusals happen at the embassy level.

 

and I have no clue why this looks dismal to you as other months after June barely started it is normal to have about 400 rejected (excluded cases) in each month .

 

also addition; these are only the cases with online update; most approvals lately do not get an online update but just a hard noa in the mail. So approvals for June and july is higher than those numbers

 

Edited January 30, 2018 by Naes

[JDP91 118]

Still no NOA1, but the check is now pending from my bank account, so the ball is rolling!  

[lilit829 368]

Guysss, getting excited. Tomorrow is the last day of January, so now we'll hopefully be able to see how many applications have been filed for the month and start getting included in the data reports! Haha I'm finding it funny the things I get excited about lately... 

[lilit829 368]

Also completely perplexed that there are two (TWO!!) Nov. filers that got their NOA2s already! Not getting my hopes up but I'm crossing my fingers that this is an omen! 

[RambaCat 643]

40 minutes ago, lilit829 said:

Also completely perplexed that there are two (TWO!!) Nov. filers that got their NOA2s already! Not getting my hopes up but I'm crossing my fingers that this is an omen! 

I'm personally putting it down as a really lucky blip........at least until more approvals show up 

[lilit829 368]

9 minutes ago, RambaCat said:

I'm personally putting it down as a really lucky blip........at least until more approvals show up 

Incredibly lucky! Like...how? But yeah, too soon to tell and frankly mean to all the summer filers. 

[RambaCat 643]

1 minute ago, lilit829 said:

Incredibly lucky! Like...how? But yeah, too soon to tell and frankly mean to all the summer filers. 

I really wish I knew! my brain tells me there has to be a logical explanation, but it's...USCIS. They defy logic.

 

And it's definitely mean to the summer filers - I won't lie and say that some part of me isn't excited that we might get our approvals sooner than expected, but the larger part of me wants all the people who have been waiting for so long already to get their approvals first. I think I'd feel guilty otherwise.

[John & Rose 7,239]

1 hour ago, lilit829 said:

Also completely perplexed that there are two (TWO!!) Nov. filers that got their NOA2s already! Not getting my hopes up but I'm crossing my fingers that this is an omen! 

Expedited cases.  There are always a few of those.  I think June had 9.  Those are exceptions and difficult to get.

 

That being said, anything is possible.  There are still 50+ June 6 filers waiting but there are also filers from mid July who have already been through NVC and are scheduled for interviews...there is no way to try to find a pattern.

Edited January 30, 2018 by John & Rose

[lilit829 368]

2 minutes ago, John & Rose said:

Expedited cases.  There are always a few of those.  I think June had 9.  Those are exceptions and difficult to get.

From what I read the two people were not expedited cases...which was the super weird part of it, because I brushed it off as expedited cases at first but the users said they weren't. I'm hoping it just means they get the ball rolling with June/July/August. 

[John & Rose 7,239]

5 minutes ago, lilit829 said:

From what I read the two people were not expedited cases...which was the super weird part of it, because I brushed it off as expedited cases at first but the users said they weren't. I'm hoping it just means they get the ball rolling with June/July/August. 

Look at the app on your phone.  Use your WAC as a guide.  If you sign in to the app you will see the history.  That will tell you if they are expedited.  I find it very hard to believe that no August,  September or October non-expedited cases have been approved but 2 November cases have.  I did say "hard to believe", not impossible after what we have seen!  

Edited January 30, 2018 by John & Rose

[lilit829 368]

3 minutes ago, John & Rose said:

Look at the app on your phone.  Use your WAC as a guide.  If you sign in to the app you will see the history.  That will tell you if they are expedited.  I find it very hard to believe that no August,  September or October non-expedited cases have been approved but 2 November cases have.  I did say "hard to believe", not impossible after what we have seen!  

I find it hard to believe as well. But I was just making a comment about what I saw on the November forum, the use had posted a picture of her NOA2 and everything. But yeah still not expecting to hear anything until at least June. 

[John & Rose 7,239]

Just now, lilit829 said:

I find it hard to believe as well. But I was just making a comment about what I saw on the November forum, the use had posted a picture of her NOA2 and everything. But yeah still not expecting to hear anything until at least June. 

I'd love to get their WAC# and run it.  Either way, I am happy for them.  They are definitely an exception to the current rule.

[RambaCat 643]

1 minute ago, John & Rose said:

I'd love to get their WAC# and run it.  Either way, I am happy for them.  They are definitely an exception to the current rule.

Hi! I think they were a no notification, straight letter in the mailbox type approval, because they were asking about what it could possibly be (informed delivery) before hand. So I don't think the WAC# would show anything anyway.

[John & Rose 7,239]

4 minutes ago, RambaCat said:

Hi! I think they were a no notification, straight letter in the mailbox type approval, because they were asking about what it could possibly be (informed delivery) before hand. So I don't think the WAC# would show anything anyway.

If it is this early and there was no online notification it is most likely an RFE.  If they know it is an approval it would show up everywhere online (website, phone apps).  There is nothing on the outside of the envelope that would distinguish between an approval and an RFE.