January 2018 Filers

[x_driven_x 1,778]

2 minutes ago, Deehotstepper said:

Sorry Bud,

you can feel free to log off.

i am going to be right here, posting my opinions as you post yours.

As you are more than welcome to!  Everyone can join in.  You just seemed annoyed that people are estimating things, and well... people are gonna be people, that's what they do. 

Nobody likes being "in the dark" and thus people take comfort in whatever information that can find, or that others can interpret.  In a deep philosophical sense, I suppose that's how religion came to be. But anway, not to get offtrack - I can agree with you that for some it is even more anxiety inducing, because you're right in the sense that only USCIS knows "the truth".

 

But for now, this and VJ timeline is the best we got.

[GP1977 288]

7 minutes ago, x_driven_x said:

This is probably directed at me. I just do my best to be helpful with the best estimates I can make with the data at hand, and I never claimed they were facts or anything like that, simply estimates based on imperfect  data.  And yes, that data does appear to be degrading over time as they do less and less updates on the old system.

 

You are free to do your own analysis of the available data, and make your own estimate if you'd like. You may not care about estimates, but there are a lot of people that take comfort in "reasonable" estimates than no estimates at all.  

 

Feel free to logoff VJ and come back in a few months if the discussing, estimates, anxiety, and worries that people post are annoying to you. 

@x_driven_x This same individual has been guessing as we have all been guessing so dont take it personally. In fact, he got quite upset with me because on April 23rd he had posted that they were hoping for NOA2 in early June and they are a late January filer.  I told him no chance and his feelings were deeply hurt.  SO just ignore him as I have.

 

[Naes 12,205]

36 minutes ago, Deehotstepper said:

I understand it has always been guessing But what i was saying is that previously, you and other who were doing the scans were able to use the old system and really provide great guesses. With the transition to the new system, increased silent approvals and timelines not being updated fully, those great guesses that we all took as solid facts, are now partially in accurate. and i am not speaking of you, @Naes but there are others who post on different monthly threads about their obsolete data and incorrect guesses as though it is facts like they work at USCIS. Thats why it is important for us to say i dont really know but here is what i guess or have seen from previous months that way people understand. there are folks on here that take these guesstimates and make plans for their future even thought they really shouldnt but it happens. Lets share hope and support.

I do understand what you mean. And believe me there were even people who yelled at me, took their frustration out of me because their case hasn't been touch...which is funny cause their case were actually outliers taking way too many months. 

 

However, there is a big misunderstanding.

Timelines has never been updated, scans has never worked fully, and silent noa2s are happening for over a year. Just from what I gathered I know February, March, April (the list goes on) still has a good 1000-2000 cases looks virgin. 

 

Scans started only on October when May cases started, and since then I started doing whatever means we have (which by the way the person who just guessed was around since about that time, because he was in contact with me to start November since 8 months ago and continuously followed how months flow). I guessed July would start on December before Christmas, and then USCIS apparently decided June was going to take 2 months. and it didn't start. that's it.

 

On another note, in the technical sense of things, guesses has nothing to do with the amount of approvals we see but all about dates as I said before. It is all about which dates has been touched, now that we saw a good amount of November 30, a good guess would be for December to start next week even after November being a weird month. And The best estimate for January would be 5 weeks from that (which in itself a negative estimate by the way). 

 

Any estimation made here does not talk about when someone will get adjudicated but when a new month may start. People cannot put disclaimer in every single guess they do. 

 

I want to believe people here are adult enough to decide to get married and go over a big process like this, is also adult enough to make a decision on understanding what a guess is. We are continuously reminding people not to even take vj estimations into accounts as there are outliers everywhere, but apart from that it depends on their ability to decide. 

 

But apart from this, as this being a public forum anyone can guess anything, anyone can say no to it. 

 

[Naes 12,205]

10 minutes ago, x_driven_x said:

only USCIS knows "the truth".

Dude I don't think even they know "the truth" 

 

X-Files are more clear than this process...

Edited June 1, 2018 by Naes

[JayHouser 209]

Lets not get hostile. These guys are taking their free time to provide estimates for other people with nothing in return.  An estimate is an estimate. Not a guarantee. Thanks for what you guys do Naes and XDriven

[Deehotstepper 230]

13 minutes ago, JayHouser said:

Lets not get hostile. These guys are taking their free time to provide estimates for other people with nothing in return.  An estimate is an estimate. Not a guarantee. Thanks for what you guys do Naes and XDriven

Yes, thank you @Naes and @x_driven_x for all your hard work on providing us with what data you can. Much appreciated.

Edited June 1, 2018 by Deehotstepper

[Naes 12,205]

1 minute ago, Deehotstepper said:

Yes, thank you @Naes and @x_driven_x for all your hard work on providing us with what data you can. Much appreciated.

I know you're frustrated. Especially what they are doing with November. Try to relax and don't think too much about other cases. They jump back and forth all the time with these timelines. and a few years ago average was a good 250 days for some centers. so I still feel we are better off than that... although I also wish it was only 3 months wait... Believe me when its done, you won't even think twice about how long it took.

[RambaCat 643]

A Decemberite got approved guys! 1st December filer - It's coming, slowly but surely!

[Chair_force1 195]

34 minutes ago, RambaCat said:

A Decemberite got approved guys! 1st December filer - It's coming, slowly but surely!

Yeah I know for a fact there have been scattered December approvals.  It’s happening 🤗

[iwir 337]

6 hours ago, Naes said:

I know you're frustrated. Especially what they are doing with November. Try to relax and don't think too much about other cases. They jump back and forth all the time with these timelines. and a few years ago average was a good 250 days for some centers. so I still feel we are better off than that... although I also wish it was only 3 months wait... Believe me when its done, you won't even think twice about how long it took.

@Naes you're a champion of patience. I see how many people were lashing out their frustration at you and you still could handle it calmly. @x_driven_x I always appreciate your guestimate too and your calm reaction. People can say whatever they want based on the limited data or even with their own expectation. The same person didn't want to listen when more realistic guess was brought up and now gave the same advise he denied before. Every group in K1 visa always has someone like that but anyway I don't spend much time around here but I read and lurk from time to time. I avoid any argument and just look forward to seeing January filers get approved soon. I'm happy to hear @RambaCat that December is starting to get adjudicated. Hope USCIS starts approving December filers full force sometimes next week. September POE is still possible. I'm crossing my fingers here

[lilit829 368]

 

DECEMBER HAS STARTED!!!! What a nice send off to a week that started out so depressingly! 

Is that...is that hope I feel? 

One step closer to Janie time! 

[LuFlolady 881]

4 hours ago, RambaCat said:

A Decemberite got approved guys! 1st December filer - It's coming, slowly but surely!

REALLY?!?!?!!? Cue the music!!!!!!

[LuFlolady 881]

8 minutes ago, lilit829 said:

 

DECEMBER HAS STARTED!!!! What a nice send off to a week that started out so depressingly! 

Is that...is that hope I feel? 

One step closer to Janie time! 

very nice send off! where are u guys seeing this info?

[LuFlolady 881]

4 hours ago, RambaCat said:

A Decemberite got approved guys! 1st December filer - It's coming, slowly but surely!

Yes! Lets get this party started

[lilit829 368]

9 minutes ago, LuFlolady said:

very nice send off! where are u guys seeing this info?

Dec. thread!