Illegals commit crimes at double the rate of native-born: Study

[TBoneTX 45,537]

"Results:  33% of the rats lived, 33% died, and the last one got loose somewhere in the laboratory and was lost to follow-up."

[jg121783 3,918]

1 hour ago, charmander said:

These guys' findings are quite the opposite. "Illegal immigrants are 44 percent less likely to be incarcerated than natives."

 

https://object.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/immigration_brief-1.pdf

 

 

This article explains why that study is flawed:

 

http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/immigration/326272-most-illegal-aliens-routinely-commit-felonies

[bcking 3,157]

Interesting data. What is reported are a lot of percentages. They didn't provide a link to the article study (if it's published) so I can't actually read their methods or anything.

 

Just a few raw numbers to put things in perspective (I'm using the numbers from the article except where indicated):

 

Arizona population - 6.931 million (google)

Illegal immigrants are 3% of Arizona's population - ~210,000 people

Arizona prison population - ~42,000 (https://corrections.az.gov/sites/default/files/REPORTS/Stats/adc-inmatestats_2yr-pop_nov18.pdf)

Arizona illegal immigrant prison population (8%) - 3,360

Arizon illegal immigrant murder convinctions (13%) - 520

 

Percentage of illegal immigrants in Arizona that are in prison - 1.6%

Percentage of illegal immigrants in Arizona convicted of murder - 0.16%

 

Percentage of "everyone else" in Arizona that are in prison - 0.5%

Percentage of "everyone else" in Arizona convicted of murder - 0.05%

 

So the illegal immigrant is around 3 times more likely to be in prison. Three times more likely to be convicted of murder.

 

That being said, 98.4% of illegal immigrants in Arizona are neither in prison or committed murder.

 

EDIT: I changed the numbers for the murder conviction. Upon rereading the article they don't specify for that set of data that they are talking about illegals aged 25-35 or whatever age range they gave earlier. They just said illegal immigrant. So I used data estimating the total number (more than just 3% - https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/research/immigrants-in-arizona). That made the percentage a little lower.

Edited January 29, 2018 by bcking

[charmander 692]

26 minutes ago, jg121783 said:

This article explains why that study is flawed:

 

http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/immigration/326272-most-illegal-aliens-routinely-commit-felonies

Technically all illegals start their journey committing a crime, don't they? Is it fair to say crime rate among illegals is 100% ?

 

So this article used statistical methods to estimate illegal population, looking at Lott's article, he also used the similar statistical method from Pew Research to estimate number of illegals in AZ, basically the two studies would be flawed for the same reason.

 

 

[Amica Nostra 4,803]

1 hour ago, jg121783 said:

This article explains why that study is flawed:

 

http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/immigration/326272-most-illegal-aliens-routinely-commit-felonies

let's be clear, CATO has published a Study, your guy published a report

[Amica Nostra 4,803]

44 minutes ago, bcking said:

Interesting data. What is reported are a lot of percentages. They didn't provide a link to the article study (if it's published) so I can't actually read their methods or anything.

 

Just a few raw numbers to put things in perspective (I'm using the numbers from the article except where indicated):

 

Arizona population - 6.931 million (google)

Illegal immigrants are 3% of Arizona's population - ~210,000 people

Arizona prison population - ~42,000 (https://corrections.az.gov/sites/default/files/REPORTS/Stats/adc-inmatestats_2yr-pop_nov18.pdf)

Arizona illegal immigrant prison population (8%) - 3,360

Arizon illegal immigrant murder convinctions (13%) - 520

 

Percentage of illegal immigrants in Arizona that are in prison - 1.6%

Percentage of illegal immigrants in Arizona convicted of murder - 0.16%

 

Percentage of "everyone else" in Arizona that are in prison - 0.5%

Percentage of "everyone else" in Arizona convicted of murder - 0.05%

 

So the illegal immigrant is around 3 times more likely to be in prison. Three times more likely to be convicted of murder.

 

That being said, 98.4% of illegal immigrants in Arizona are neither in prison or committed murder.

 

EDIT: I changed the numbers for the murder conviction. Upon rereading the article they don't specify for that set of data that they are talking about illegals aged 25-35 or whatever age range they gave earlier. They just said illegal immigrant. So I used data estimating the total number (more than just 3% - https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/research/immigrants-in-arizona). That made the percentage a little lower.

The Washington Times headline Calls it a Study, it is not a study and the body of their article refers to it several times as a report.  They also call out that they were not able to find any academic to provide a review. 

So who knows what the actual data and methods are, but I think Social Sciences are pseudosciencey enough without some rigor on the methods. 

[bcking 3,157]

12 minutes ago, Il Mango Dulce said:

The Washington Times headline Calls it a Study, it is not a study and the body of their article refers to it several times as a report.  They also call out that they were not able to find any academic to provide a review. 

So who knows what the actual data and methods are, but I think Social Sciences are pseudosciencey enough without some rigor on the methods. 

Without the methods of how they came up with their percentages, it is hard to judge whether it is flawed or not. I haven't yet read the other links in this thread to see if they have more information. That being said, of course "garbage in creates garbage out". If your data set is misleading/inaccurate/bad, your conclusions will be misleading/inaccurate/bad as well. 

 

My numbers were assuming that the report/study's numbers were accurate. I calculated them just because it is always important to have both percentages AND absolute numbers. We have this problem in medicine all the time.

 

Someone tells you "If you pay me 100,000 dollars I can decrease your risk of X cancer by half". That sounds great. Your risk is cut in half! You would be silly not to pay up. What if your baseline risk of X cancer is 0.1%? So he will reduce your risk from 0.1% to 0.05%. Is that still as great as if it was a 10% risk? 5% risk? etc... You need to have the relative risk reduction AND the absolute risk reduction to really make an informed decision.

 

Saying that illegal immigrants are three times as likely to be in prison (again based on their numbers, which may or may not be inaccurate/misleading) sounds like it's huge. Sounds like illegal immigrants must be a bunch of killers and criminals. However that is less than 2 percent of illegal immigrants. 

[bcking 3,157]

16 hours ago, jg121783 said:

What I meant was that the federal numbers match what the Arizona study seems to show. Why do we need a peer reviewed study of black and white numbers even a lay man can read and interpret? It's not up for debate or scientific review. This is 8th grade math here. Do you deny that federal numbers show illegal aliens commit more crimes than any other segment of the population and legal immigrants commit the lowest amount of crime?

 

The numbers may be black and white, but the methodology to obtain the numbers can be flawed, and can be subject to review.

 

 

[Boiler 45,670]

1 hour ago, bcking said:

 

 

That being said, 98.4% of illegal immigrants in Arizona are neither in prison or committed murder.

 

The only thing that could be said for absolute certainty is that that figure is wrong.

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

3 X illegals commit crimes doesn't sound all that bad when you consider the % of USC in prison. 

[bcking 3,157]

28 minutes ago, Boiler said:

The only thing that could be said for absolute certainty is that that figure is wrong.

Please elaborate.

 

I used the statistics presented in the original article cited, and applied it to the Arizona State population and Arizona State prison population.

 

Where in my math is the problem? I guess in retrospect I should have said convicted not committed. Maybe some committed murder but weren't caught.

[bcking 3,157]

29 minutes ago, IDWAF said:

3 X illegals commit crimes doesn't sound all that bad when you consider the % of USC in prison. 

It is likely a significant difference. I'm not saying illegal immigrants are all angels. I agree with the sentiment that if you are willing to begin your life in the USA by committing a crime, you are probably at higher risk of committing other crimes (from small to large).

 

But when you actually take the number in prison and compare it to the entire illegal immigrants population, it's still quite small. Just like it's small for USCs. 

 

As I said, based on the numbers from the OP article, it would be something like 2%.

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

14 minutes ago, bcking said:

It is likely a significant difference. I'm not saying illegal immigrants are all angels. I agree with the sentiment that if you are willing to begin your life in the USA by committing a crime, you are probably at higher risk of committing other crimes (from small to large).

 

But when you actually take the number in prison and compare it to the entire illegal immigrants population, it's still quite small. Just like it's small for USCs. 

 

As I said, based on the numbers from the OP article, it would be something like 2%.

That's basically what I was saying.  Percentage of USC criminals in prison is probably close to illegal aliens in prison, percentage wise.

[Póg mo 1,749]

19 hours ago, spookyturtle said:

I agree with the President, time to get tough on MS-13. They are a menace to society and serve no useful purpose, like ISIS. 

Nobody can argue with getting tough with MS-13,  however I am not sure that I am down with sending gang members directly back to their home country is always a good idea. Especially if said home country is all struggling to overcome the aftermath of a civil war, because doing so may just create more problems not just for the home country, but the United States, in the form of increased numbers of people fleeing a deteriorating home country.

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

1 minute ago, Póg mo said:

Nobody can argue with getting tough with MS-13,  however I am not sure that I am down with sending gang members directly back to their home country is always a good idea. Especially if said home country is all struggling to overcome the aftermath of a civil war, because doing so may just create more problems not just for the home country, but the United States, in the form of increased numbers of people fleeing a deteriorating home country.

So you're saying execute them.  Good stance, I can get behind you on that.