Dow spikes 205 points to record close, led by Boeing

[OriZ 3,157]

Just now, eieio said:

Yes…you did say imminent.  You also predicted a housing crash by the end of 2016.   I can try to find your posts if you like?

lol. Go for it but then you have to find every single other post I have written about it too as mentioned above. You know, markets are fluid, things change. I don't remember saying imminent but I would assume if I ever did it was right before the drop in 2015 which did happen and then once the market bottomed what I said was different. So any attempt to take any quote out of context will be extremely disingenuous and I have no intention of playing nice with that kinda stuff. 

[eieio 1,594]

1 minute ago, OriZ said:

lol. Go for it but then you have to find every single other post I have written about it too as mentioned above. You know, markets are fluid, things change. I don't remember saying imminent but I would assume if I ever did it was right before the drop in 2015 which did happen and then once the market bottomed what I said was different. So any attempt to take any quote out of context will be extremely disingenuous and I have no intention of playing nice with that kinda stuff. 

Hey…I've read pretty much every single post you have made about it.  Just because I don't post about it doesn't mean I haven't paid attention.  But…I have time so I will see what I come up with……and it will be in context. Fair enough?

[OriZ 3,157]

1 minute ago, eieio said:

Hey…I've read pretty much every single post you have made about it.  Just because I don't post about it doesn't mean I haven't paid attention.  But…I have time so I will see what I come up with……and it will be in context. Fair enough?

Have fun with it. But while you're looking, take a look at this page: 

 

this page:

 

this post:

 

this:

 

this whole page:

 

 

this:

 

 

 

here:

 

 

I'll stop there just to prevent clutter. It's a silly argument to have regardless and not really worth the lack of sleep to me so after this post I'll be done for the night...

 

Read and understand every vowel above before you comment...just as a friendly suggestion, compare dates of the posts above to the dates of whatever it is you may wish to quote. I would also highly recommend reading the article I posted to bcking in my reply to him earlier in order to better understand the background.

 

FYI...as a side note: my daily trading system has been "LONG" the S&P500 since Nov 2016 and hasn't budged since. My weekly has been long since May 2016, and my monthly has been long since Aug 2016. I believe I've mentioned that on numerous occasions as well, none of them have looked back since as of yet but I'll be sure to update when they do. Chances are anything you may or may not be able to dig up was in 2015 or early 2016, as I said markets are fluid and it's all about adaptability. Those who are not agile get crushed. While my long term stance on the market has not changed one iota(quite to the contrary, the higher it goes the worse the long term prospects become) I have been more neutral over the last two years than I have been in the preceeding year, I will admit to that. If none of what I have just written gets acknowledged, I have no intention of entertaining this, I've got bigger and better things to do. I've not been updating my thread for a while for that reason as there has been nothing new to add beyond the above links. TBH right now I'm concentrating alot more on cryptos - they're much more fun. I want not a whole lot to do with this market until it returns to sanity. Nothing about this is either normal nor healthy, and it will blow up in the face of anyone who insists on believing otherwise despite decades of evidence to the contrary.

 

P.S Thanks for giving me another post to bookmark

 

 

 

 

 

[eieio 1,594]

I'm on it. Like you won't be prepared.LOL

[eieio 1,594]

So far It seems you predicted in early 2014. So I had the number of years right. Here is just a response/reply talking about it. 

 

Quote

   On December 21, 2014 at 9:38 PM, DavenRoxy said: 

Fair enough, and I don't pretend to know anything about the market nor where it will head, except what I see, and what I see seems to be a slow trend upwards. And if you were wrong about the late 2014/early 2015 decline, I won't hold it against you, I just said I don't see it happening. I hope you are wrong, for all of our sakes. If things DO get worse than 2008 was (as you postulated it will), I think it will set the middle class back so far it may be hard for most to recover in this lifetime. Land values tanked in 2008, and still have not recovered. It will take a while yet before they do, IFF there is not a setback in the near future.

OTWT (Only Time Will Tell), I always say. One can hope for the best, but should prepare for the worst.

ETA: And to be fair, you predicted gas would go way below $3 per gallon as things got worse. If your other predictions are correct, commodities and precious metals will tank next (if I understood you correctly).

So, I am very cautious still about calling this a bear market yet, stocks are only about 5% from the top, however I will say this; there's still a few things I'm waiting for to be 98% sure(can never be 100%). Right now I'd say I'm around 60-40. The S&P would have to drop under 1815 for me to call for a bear market(which in that case would extend the decline towards 1000 and possibly less). it's starting to look like the real thing but I'm still waiting on a few more confirmations. If it is indeed the real thing then we could say that the assumption that the decline will begin by the end of 2014 ended up being correct, but we shall see. 

As far as the prevailing thought that this is going to be so horrible for everyone well yes that is true, however I think what the Federal Reserve is doing is actually prolonging it and thus making everyone's misery last longer by trying to fight natural cycles. If the FED didn't try to butt in, there would have been a bigger, faster crash and by now there would be a REAL recovery. The world moves two steps forward, one step back. If you do not step back, you will not be able to continue moving forward and then all you will be is stagnant. That is exactly what the FED is causing. In a sense crises are not the problem, they are the solution. I feel bad for anyone suffering, losing their job, losing money in stocks, etc. But it is important to know that the solution to that is not for the FED to intervene, quite the contrary. If they sat on their hands things would have already been better instead of(IMO) getting worse in the next few years. It is only once this crash is allowed to run its course that things will genuinely get better. 

 

 

[eieio 1,594]

Here is just a reply suggesting it would have happened by 2016.  

 

Not really the thread I remembered…but I will give it another stab tomorrow.

 

Quote

Can you show me where exactly I said there would be an exact time frame? I already said, stocks are as always the last holdout. Lets agree to meet here in two years, Dec 2016 and revisit this. I did the same thing with someone who mocked me in early 08, by the time the date we agreed on came, he was nowhere to be found. So don't go disappearing on me. This is going to take a while, it is a long process and there are many forces(such as the Federal Reserve) foolishly trying to fight it, temporarily holding it up.

 

[OriZ 3,157]

5 hours ago, eieio said:

So far It seems you predicted in early 2014. So I had the number of years right. Here is just a response/reply talking about it. 

 

 

So I took your quote and marked in bold what I was talking about earlier that I said, so far you're only helping my case.

 

Quote

 

So, I am very cautious still about calling this a bear market yet, stocks are only about 5% from the top, however I will say this; there's still a few things I'm waiting for to be 98% sure(can never be 100%). Right now I'd say I'm around 60-40. The S&P would have to drop under 1815 for me to call for a bear market(which in that case would extend the decline towards 1000 and possibly less). it's starting to look like the real thing but I'm still waiting on a few more confirmations. If it is indeed the real thing then we could say that the assumption that the decline will begin by the end of 2014 ended up being correct, but we shall see. 

As far as the prevailing thought that this is going to be so horrible for everyone well yes that is true, however I think what the Federal Reserve is doing is actually prolonging it and thus making everyone's misery last longer by trying to fight natural cycles. If the FED didn't try to butt in, there would have been a bigger, faster crash and by now there would be a REAL recovery. The world moves two steps forward, one step back. If you do not step back, you will not be able to continue moving forward and then all you will be is stagnant. That is exactly what the FED is causing. In a sense crises are not the problem, they are the solution. I feel bad for anyone suffering, losing their job, losing money in stocks, etc. But it is important to know that the solution to that is not for the FED to intervene, quite the contrary. If they sat on their hands things would have already been better instead of(IMO) getting worse in the next few years. It is only once this crash is allowed to run its course that things will genuinely get better. 

 

Needless to say the things I was waiting for just never materialized then, when I say 3 years I mean when I actually said I've had those signals, and indeed we had a ~20% drop into late 2015 that I identified the end of.

 

Notice the bold part where it says it would have to drop under 1815? guess exactly where it stopped in 2015? You got it! Absolutely amazing how I managed to pinpoint that support a year ahead of time.

 

 

https://imgur.com/a/Tbupm

 

scoreeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee.

 

Next.

Edited February 7, 2018 by OriZ

[OriZ 3,157]

4 hours ago, eieio said:

Here is just a reply suggesting it would have happened by 2016.  

 

Not really the thread I remembered…but I will give it another stab tomorrow.

 

 

And once again...

 

Quote

Can you show me where exactly I said there would be an exact time frame? I already said, stocks are as always the last holdout. Lets agree to meet here in two years, Dec 2016 and revisit this. I did the same thing with someone who mocked me in early 08, by the time the date we agreed on came, he was nowhere to be found. So don't go disappearing on me. This is going to take a while, it is a long process and there are many forces(such as the Federal Reserve) foolishly trying to fight it, temporarily holding it up.

So you're being disingenuous just like I thought you would be, kinda wasting both our times.

[eieio 1,594]

2 hours ago, OriZ said:

And once again...

 

So you're being disingenuous just like I thought you would be, kinda wasting both our times.

Diseingenuous? Huh. Literally you have been talking about a stock market crash since 2014.   Is that true or not?  Isn’t the stock market up like 10,000 points since then. You can say your prediction has been right but I don’t see it that way.  

[OriZ 3,157]

5 minutes ago, eieio said:

Diseingenuous? Huh. Literally you have been talking about a stock market crash since 2014.   Is that true or not?  Isn’t the stock market up like 10,000 points since then. You can say your prediction has been right but I don’t see it that way.  

Well, you're just looking at it wrong, which is not surprising - most people do. That's why most people never make any money. Yeah I was literally talking about a crash and in fact it happened - in 2015, but as I have said(and linked to it in my post) I called the bottom of that drop after about 20%. It wasn't what I initially thought it would be but being flexible and able to adapt and follow the market's lead is crucial. As I said before you need to compare dates; what I said in 2014 is irrelevant to today because we did infact get the drop in 2015.  It was just shallower than I initially anticipated and rested on support that I've identified well in advance as well as in real time. You clearly didn't read my post from last night which I said was a must for this discussion so after this post I'm not going to entertain this any longer. 

 

Btw more proof of my opinion you can find in this post from not that long ago

 

 

So clearly, I'm not sitting here with a stop watch and not chasing the market.. I've clarified that so many times that I've lost count. I've learned a long time ago you need to be patient. I closed my shorts almost two years ago, and kinda just sitting this one out now, because like I said I'm alot more interested in cryptos these days(money is better too) and I'm not willing to partake in an impending disaster. So while my shorter term view has gone more neutral over the last couple of years, make no mistake about it, this will end up badly and I have no shred of doubt there. Also, number of points the Dow is up is irrelevant(and it's not 10000)...percentage is and it's just about 30%, which is nothing but paper gains that will be wiped out and then some by the completion of this cycle, and well short of the 200%+ gain I was totally on board for up until that point.

 

 

7 hours ago, eieio said:

Here is just a reply suggesting it would have happened by 2016.  

 

Not really the thread I remembered…but I will give it another stab tomorrow.

 

 

Of course it's not the thread you remember but keep in mind you can't edit posts after a few minutes so not like I changed anything, it's just like I said you guys only remember what you want to remember because I swear your mind is playing tricks on you because you want me to be wrong so badly(I mean, who wants to lose half their money?) that you want to believe everything else I've ever said has also been wrong. But that's not the case and when my target is met and it will be met at least now you gave me another thread to point to, since there is a good summary of everything here.

Edited February 7, 2018 by OriZ

[Cyberfx1024 7,980]

2 minutes ago, OriZ said:

So clearly, I'm not sitting here with a stop watch and not chasing the market.. I've clarified that so many times that I've lost count. I've learned a long time ago you need to be patient. I closed my shorts almost two years ago, and kinda just sitting this one out now, because like I said I'm alot more interested in cryptos these days(money is better too) and I'm not willing to partake in an impending disaster. So while my shorter term view has gone more neutral over the last couple of years, make no mistake about it, this will end up badly and I have no shred of doubt there. Also, number of points the Dow is up is irrelevant(and it's not 10000)...percentage is and it's just about 30%, which is nothing but paper gains that will be wiped out and then some by the completion of this cycle, and well short of the 200%+ gain I was totally on board for up until that point.

 

How are you doing in crypto right now? I am doing pretty good right now, up over 20% for the year right now even after that dip the last couple of days. Right now I am only in about 5 coins that I like the fundamentals of right now. My former coworker is doing ok as well but he literally bet the house on crypto so he has nothing to fall back on. He also loves to play in the smaller exchanges which I don't like at all due to being burned a couple times because of it.

[OriZ 3,157]

18 minutes ago, cyberfx1024 said:

How are you doing in crypto right now? I am doing pretty good right now, up over 20% for the year right now even after that dip the last couple of days. Right now I am only in about 5 coins that I like the fundamentals of right now. My former coworker is doing ok as well but he literally bet the house on crypto so he has nothing to fall back on. He also loves to play in the smaller exchanges which I don't like at all due to being burned a couple times because of it.

I love buying coins before they go on a bigger exchange. If I can snatch something on ED, or even one of the slightly bigger exchanges and ride it till it goes on something like Binance, it's great. I'm doing good right now, I'm seeing this dip as a huge buying opportunity. I won't get into percentages but last year I made more money in crypto than I ever thought I would in the stock market...this year I am down so far like most(congrats on being up! not sure how you did it lol), but still very profitable overall. I have about 60 different ones and that's after downsizing lol, but some I just can't pass on. Stuff like DIVX, WTC, BQX, VEN, NEBL, XRB, XLM, DRGN, POWR, TRIG, ICX, WABI, GVT, FDX, AGI, QSP, NAV, CAPP, LEND, and I can literally go on and on all have huge potential imo. I also try to get in ICOs whenever I can, if they do KYC I just use my foreign passport, so that helps too because some of them once they hit exchanges are already x10 what they were during ico. Which ones are you in right now?

Edited February 7, 2018 by OriZ

[Cyberfx1024 7,980]

7 minutes ago, OriZ said:

I love buying coins before they go on a bigger exchange. If I can snatch something on ED, or even one of the slightly bigger exchanges and ride it till it goes on something like Binance, it's great. I'm doing good right now, I'm seeing this dip as a huge buying opportunity. I won't get into percentages but last year I made more money in crypto than I ever thought I would in the stock market...this year I am down so far like most(congrats on being up! not sure how you did it lol), but still very profitable overall. I have about 60 different ones and that's after downsizing lol, but some I just can't pass on. Stuff like DIVX, WTC, BQX, VEN, NEBL, XRB, XLM, DRGN, POWR, TRIG, ICX, WABI, GVT, FDX, AGI, QSP, NAV, CAPP, LEND, and I can literally go on and on all have huge potential imo. I also try to get in ICOs whenever I can, if they do KYC I just use my foreign passport, so that helps too because some of them once they hit exchanges are already x10 what they were during ico. Which ones are you in right now?

Which exchanges or coins? The coins I am in right now are NEO, POWR(I really like POWR), TRIG, OMG, and XRP. I am really happy with NEO, OMG, and XRP because I bought in when they were cheap and now they are ok. I really think NEO and POWR has some potential right now, and I would not be surprised if NEO is at $500 a coin at the end of the year.

 

My buddy was really excited about 1 coin called KIN and was like OMG this will be the next coin all because of something on youtube. So I threw like $500 in some small stupid exchange just to find out that they don't even have the ability to buy coins at that time because they were so new. I was so pissed at my friend but he has made me some money last year because he kept bugging me to buy ANT now NEO, so I bought it at like $2 a coin and now it's $100+, and I have 500 of them.

[OriZ 3,157]

5 minutes ago, cyberfx1024 said:

Which exchanges or coins? The coins I am in right now are NEO, POWR(I really like POWR), TRIG, OMG, and XRP. I am really happy with NEO, OMG, and XRP because I bought in when they were cheap and now they are ok. I really think NEO and POWR has some potential right now, and I would not be surprised if NEO is at $500 a coin at the end of the year.

 

My buddy was really excited about 1 coin called KIN and was like OMG this will be the next coin all because of something on youtube. So I threw like $500 in some small stupid exchange just to find out that they don't even have the ability to buy coins at that time because they were so new. I was so pissed at my friend but he has made me some money last year because he kept bugging me to buy ANT now NEO, so I bought it at like $2 a coin and now it's $100+, and I have 500 of them.

Yeah I have NEO and OMG too but I didn't mention them cause they're not in my "top" ones. POWR and TRIG are amazing. XRP I like, but it's just already too big for me so I don't have it(for the same reason I don't have BTC or ETH anymore...I like lower cap coins because there's room for more growth). 

 

I was never into KIN tbh. Check out DIVX, you can run a masternode for only $2,500. Imagine being able to do that when DASH was getting started.

Edited February 7, 2018 by OriZ

[Cyberfx1024 7,980]

6 minutes ago, OriZ said:

Yeah I have NEO and OMG too but I didn't mention them cause they're not in my "top" ones. POWR and TRIG are amazing. XRP I like, but it's just already too big for me so I don't have it(for the same reason I don't have BTC or ETH anymore...I like lower cap coins because there's room for more growth). 

 

I was never into KIN tbh. Check out DIVX, you can run a masternode for only $2,500. Imagine being able to do that when DASH was getting started.

NEO and POWR are my top ones followed by OMG and XRP. I only play around with alittle bit of my money because mostly I HODL and just wait. I learned early on that a lot of times that is the best way is to play with a small amount of coins/money and let the rest sit.