I-751 January 2018

[Eli_za 50]

3 hours ago, Dee tee said:

Same here . Just hoping for the best . When do you think January filers will start getting approved ? I have seen some October , November and December approvals 

 Could you share December link?

 

[Tom and SooGyeong 87]

 Not to be a downer, but statistical data forecasts that most January 2018 filers will be waiting until June to be approved.

I went back 2 years and harvested from VJ all of the petitions that were approved. Then I separated them by month, and audited the posted dates. These were well over 1000 individual petitions, over a 2 year period. The results spoke of tremendous inefficiencies in the adjudication process. In any given month, the ‘average’ wait time by month was consistently around 500 days.

 Usually, less that 20% of those petitions were approved before the 30-day window centered on that average wait time. The percentage of petitions that were approved in that 30-day window (day 485-515) varied from 50% to 80%, with the remaining petitions being approved well past the 500-day mark. The spread each month between the shortest wait and the longest wait (again in any given month) varied wildly from as little as 200 days to a whopping 500 day gap... and that is in a single month’s group of files petitions.

 The 500-day average calculates to 16.5 months, and currently the posted wait time for I-751 petitions is 15.5 - 18 months.

i believe that to be an accurate forecast.

 

The few petition approvals from late 2017 that we are noticing are representative of that historically consistent monthly 20% that get lucky and are approved a bit ahead of the average.

 

Because of the slight acceleration of the process in recent weeks (from the additional adjudicators that have been added to the workforce) I think that 15.5 - 16.5 months wait is more likely what we will experience. The mean of that spread is 16 months, so my best guesstimate is to look for the majority of we January 2018 filers to be approved during the month of May. Just 4 months more, and we should get there.

[YecaCruz 379]

wow @Tom and SooGyeong you went through all those numbers? That's crazy! Thank you for sharing your findings with us. Now I really feel bad at maths

 

I'm good with a may approval, but we'll be in the middle of naturalization that hopefully won't take as long as this step has.

[Jessica Donahue 34]

11 hours ago, Tom and SooGyeong said:

 Not to be a downer, but statistical data forecasts that most January 2018 filers will be waiting until June to be approved.

I went back 2 years and harvested from VJ all of the petitions that were approved. Then I separated them by month, and audited the posted dates. These were well over 1000 individual petitions, over a 2 year period. The results spoke of tremendous inefficiencies in the adjudication process. In any given month, the ‘average’ wait time by month was consistently around 500 days.

 Usually, less that 20% of those petitions were approved before the 30-day window centered on that average wait time. The percentage of petitions that were approved in that 30-day window (day 485-515) varied from 50% to 80%, with the remaining petitions being approved well past the 500-day mark. The spread each month between the shortest wait and the longest wait (again in any given month) varied wildly from as little as 200 days to a whopping 500 day gap... and that is in a single month’s group of files petitions.

 The 500-day average calculates to 16.5 months, and currently the posted wait time for I-751 petitions is 15.5 - 18 months.

i believe that to be an accurate forecast.

 

The few petition approvals from late 2017 that we are noticing are representative of that historically consistent monthly 20% that get lucky and are approved a bit ahead of the average.

 

Because of the slight acceleration of the process in recent weeks (from the additional adjudicators that have been added to the workforce) I think that 15.5 - 16.5 months wait is more likely what we will experience. The mean of that spread is 16 months, so my best guesstimate is to look for the majority of we January 2018 filers to be approved during the month of May. Just 4 months more, and we should get there.

Thanks @Tom and SooGyeong for such a thoughtful and detailed post!

[LizB0322 28]

My I-751 has been pending for a year. I filled n400 online last Wednesday January 09 night, and the next day NOA was available online, then on the 12th they scheduled biometrics. I printed out biometrics appointment and went to try walk in this morning to Chatsworth CA office. Everything went smoothly. The whole process took me 15 minutes. When I got out and checked my phone, I had a text and email saying my n400 application is actively being reviewed. Now back to waiting game .

[MPJ 3]

Hi Guys,

 

I've been watching this post even though I was not a member of VJ, but I just made an account today to let you know that my ROC got approved. 

Jan 2018 Filer - WAC180725***

 

You guys will be hearing soon too

 

[Missourigal 1]

I just got a mail from USCIS and my ROC just got approved.

Edited January 19, 2019 by Missourigal
Missing word

[morgan.croft 210]

7 minutes ago, MPJ said:

Hi Guys,

 

I've been watching this post even though I was not a member of VJ, but I just made an account today to let you know that my ROC got approved. 

Jan 2018 Filer - WAC180725***

 

You guys will be hearing soon too

 

Congrats! What was your NOA1 date? 

 

7 minutes ago, Missourigal said:

I just got a mail from USCIS and my ROC just got approved.

Congrats!! Which service center and what was your NOA1 date 

[MPJ 3]

4 minutes ago, morgan.croft said:

Congrats! What was your NOA1 date? 

Jan 11th/2018  - California  service Center

Edited January 19, 2019 by MPJ

[morgan.croft 210]

1 minute ago, MPJ said:

Jan 11th/2018  - California  service Center

Cool! Typically CSC is slower than VSC. Looks like they are speeding up! 

[Eli_za 50]

25 minutes ago, MPJ said:

Hi Guys,

 

I've been watching this post even though I was not a member of VJ, but I just made an account today to let you know that my ROC got approved. 

Jan 2018 Filer - WAC180725***

 

You guys will be hearing soon too

 

Wow congrats!!! That’s a blessing!!! Mine is wac 180825 praying to God we will hear the good news soon 🙏👍

[edpa 20]

18 minutes ago, MPJ said:

Jan 11th/2018  - California  service Center

Same as ours! Hope we hear something soon too!

[LizB0322 28]

1 hour ago, MPJ said:

Hi Guys,

 

I've been watching this post even though I was not a member of VJ, but I just made an account today to let you know that my ROC got approved. 

Jan 2018 Filer - WAC180725***

 

You guys will be hearing soon too

 

Congrats MPJ! Mine is WAC180755... and filed at CSC also on January 17th last year.. I applied for n400 last week and had biometrics today..hopefully we’ll hear something soon 🤞🏼

[Missourigal 1]

1 hour ago, morgan.croft said:

Congrats! What was your NOA1 date? 

 

Congrats!! Which service center and what was your NOA1 date 

My NOA date was january 17,2018.

WAC1807- california service center

[carvalho 6]

On 12/23/2018 at 12:38 AM, LizB0322 said:

carvalho, did you scan/upload extension letters? Or only the green card? Thank you! 

 

Only the Green Card!