I-751 January 2018

[divemaster19 17]

On 10/30/2018 at 10:30 AM, mrandmrsBRS said:

So, what’s everyone doing for a living? How hard was it for you as immigrants to find a job? I’ve been a stay at home wife/mom since I got here but I want to finally be able to support my family financially. But looking on all the websites that offer jobs I get very discouraged..

As soon as I got my work permit I started working for a shooting range in Arizona, I was already an NRA firearms instructor so it fell naturally. Then once my green card arrived I applied to the Arizona Department of Corrections, went through the process, got a conditional job offer, attended the academy, passed and I am looking at taking the Sergeants exam soon. 

 

It is definitely not for everyone but it fits my personality perfectly. 

[Tom and SooGyeong 87]

Fellow January 2018 Filers,

This cold and snowy weekend, I have gathered as much data as possible from USCIS and Visa Journey Filer’s reported information. I have filtered that data through numerous counting formulas and used a bit of Kentucky-windage to try to forecast when we may be completing our Adjudication Waiting Period. Here are my findings.

   

   Over a 9-month spread of filers from July 2016 to March 2017, the average wait time was 520 days.

On average, 40% of the filers in any given month were adjudicated within a 30-day window of the average, (meaning +/- 2 weeks of the 520 day monthly average).

USCIS is reporting to receive on average approximately 14,700 I-751 petitions per month.

USCIS is also reporting to process on average only 9,250 per month, and rolling some 5,450 forward (deficit) each month.

USCIS is reporting that currently, there are 259,200 I-751 petitions waiting to be processed.

   With their current averages of 14,700 received per month, we can calculate that approximately 154,000 of those petitions are behind us in line. That leaves 105,000 in front of us, which at the current rate of 9,250 per month would be about 11 month’s wait, if all things were equal.  

However, as we all know, USCIS is anything but equal, and there are anomalies and extenuating situations in every month.

   I believe the 520-day average wait time, and the 40% of monthly filers falling within a +/- 2-week window of that number to be fairly consistent.  That would place our January 2018 Filers window of some consistent case file action at: (by week)

January  2, 2018 ~ June  6, 2019

January  9, 2018 ~ June 13, 2019

January 16, 2018 ~ June 20, 2019

January 23, 2018 ~ June 27, 2019

January 30, 2018 ~ July 5, 2019

 

Again, these are approximations, and represent the middle 40% of January filers, based on past statistics, with some coming sooner and some coming later.

 VJ members who fail to report their data throw a huge wrench into the calculations process. For example, there were a total of 113 January 2017 filers on VJ, (one year before us) but only 66% (75) have reported being approved. They filed 22 months ago, so some of the 38 who do not show to have been approved may have just not bothered to report it on VJ.

Those 75 who have reported being approved, range in wait time from as fast as 182 days to as slow as 659 days.

That is a 477-day spread, (15 ½ months) which is also reflected in the monthly historical data... (some months had an even wider spread).

For the January 2017 filers on VJ , (one year before us) there were no filers who fell within the  30-day +/- 2-week window around the ‘average’ wait of 441 days for that month.  43% were faster with an average of 339 day wait, while 57% had a longer wait, averaging 507 days. All of this was before in the beginning stage of the big slow-down in processing.

 

Some in our little group seemed hopeful that we may begin seeing a large portion of our January 2018 group adjudicated in March or April of 2019. While a few may be, the historical numbers and reality may indeed have most us waiting 2 or 3 months  longer than that hoped for early spring dates.

Edited November 18, 2018 by Tom and SooGyeong

[Nele 11]

Wow! I just saw this article... had no idea this was happening. 

[Nele 11]

25 minutes ago, Nele said:

Wow! I just saw this article... had no idea this was happening. 

Here’s a link to the CBS article: https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=undefined&cd=&ved=0ahUKEwjQxI-mud7eAhXLh1QKHaS4DCQQzPwBCAM&url=https%3A%2F%2Flosangeles.cbslocal.com%2F2018%2F09%2F17%2Fnpna-lawsuit-uscis-over-citizenship-backlog-second-wall%2F&psig=AOvVaw2_5-hrfkNVBQczcn7oVYmE&ust=1542647875197809

 

they’re also being sued by Employer Organizations for the backlog and new measurements regarding work-related visas, which apparently has caused crazy problems and are costing companies an arm and a leg in legal fees, trying to keep up.

Forbes link to the article: https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=undefined&cd=&ved=0ahUKEwjQ4a2ru97eAhVHjFQKHWA6Cl4QzPwBCAM&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.forbes.com%2Fsites%2Fstuartanderson%2F2018%2F10%2F15%2Fnew-h-1b-lawsuit-uscis-lacks-authority-to-limit-visa-duration%2F&psig=AOvVaw3gBfJsH_Lznt8BDNqplGhM&ust=1542648423034873

 

This is getting so tiring... 

Edited November 18, 2018 by Nele

[mrandmrsBRS 116]

2 hours ago, Tom and SooGyeong said:

Fellow January 2018 Filers,

This cold and snowy weekend, I have gathered as much data as possible from USCIS and Visa Journey Filer’s reported information. I have filtered that data through numerous counting formulas and used a bit of Kentucky-windage to try to forecast when we may be completing our Adjudication Waiting Period. Here are my findings.

   

   Over a 9-month spread of filers from July 2016 to March 2017, the average wait time was 520 days.

On average, 40% of the filers in any given month were adjudicated within a 30-day window of the average, (meaning +/- 2 weeks of the 520 day monthly average).

USCIS is reporting to receive on average approximately 14,700 I-751 petitions per month.

USCIS is also reporting to process on average only 9,250 per month, and rolling some 5,450 forward (deficit) each month.

USCIS is reporting that currently, there are 259,200 I-751 petitions waiting to be processed.

   With their current averages of 14,700 received per month, we can calculate that approximately 154,000 of those petitions are behind us in line. That leaves 105,000 in front of us, which at the current rate of 9,250 per month would be about 11 month’s wait, if all things were equal.  

However, as we all know, USCIS is anything but equal, and there are anomalies and extenuating situations in every month.

   I believe the 520-day average wait time, and the 40% of monthly filers falling within a +/- 2-week window of that number to be fairly consistent.  That would place our January 2018 Filers window of some consistent case file action at: (by week)

January  2, 2018 ~ June  6, 2019

January  9, 2018 ~ June 13, 2019

January 16, 2018 ~ June 20, 2019

January 23, 2018 ~ June 27, 2019

January 30, 2018 ~ July 5, 2019

 

Again, these are approximations, and represent the middle 40% of January filers, based on past statistics, with some coming sooner and some coming later.

 VJ members who fail to report their data throw a huge wrench into the calculations process. For example, there were a total of 113 January 2017 filers on VJ, (one year before us) but only 66% (75) have reported being approved. They filed 22 months ago, so some of the 38 who do not show to have been approved may have just not bothered to report it on VJ.

Those 75 who have reported being approved, range in wait time from as fast as 182 days to as slow as 659 days.

That is a 477-day spread, (15 ½ months) which is also reflected in the monthly historical data... (some months had an even wider spread).

For the January 2017 filers on VJ , (one year before us) there were no filers who fell within the  30-day +/- 2-week window around the ‘average’ wait of 441 days for that month.  43% were faster with an average of 339 day wait, while 57% had a longer wait, averaging 507 days. All of this was before in the beginning stage of the big slow-down in processing.

 

Some in our little group seemed hopeful that we may begin seeing a large portion of our January 2018 group adjudicated in March or April of 2019. While a few may be, the historical numbers and reality may indeed have most us waiting 2 or 3 months  longer than that hoped for early spring dates.

You seriously deserve a medal for what you’re doing for this group! 

 

Even if we had to 2-3 months longer at least we wouldn’t have to get another extension, correct?

[Tom and SooGyeong 87]

13 minutes ago, mrandmrsBRS said:

You seriously deserve a medal for what you’re doing for this group! 

 

Even if we had to 2-3 months longer at least we wouldn’t have to get another extension, correct?

Correct.The current 18-month extension is added to your temporary Green Card exp. date. Being January filers, most of our GC exp. dates were for April 2018, making the 18-month extension out to October 2019

[rfejzullari 4]

So my wife and I are traveling to Canada at the beginning of December. Does she need to carry her Green Card, both extension letter (we have one for 12 months and one for 18 months), and our marriage certificate in order to pass though to Canada and back to the United States? 

[Tom and SooGyeong 87]

19 minutes ago, rfejzullari said:

So my wife and I are traveling to Canada at the beginning of December. Does she need to carry her Green Card, both extension letter (we have one for 12 months and one for 18 months), and our marriage certificate in order to pass though to Canada and back to the United States? 

By Law, as a Resident Alien, your wife should Always carry her Green Card with her, even day to day here in the States. Because the Green Card is past its expiration date, she should also have (a copy) of the 18-month extension letter with her (at all times) as well. The 12-month extension letter has been superseded, and so it is not needed.

For this trip to Canada, ABSOLUTELY, Carry Both the Green Card and the (Original) 18-month extension letter.

 

 

[rfejzullari 4]

19 minutes ago, Tom and SooGyeong said:

By Law, as a Resident Alien, your wife should Always carry her Green Card with her, even day to day here in the States. Because the Green Card is past its expiration date, she should also have (a copy) of the 18-month extension letter with her (at all times) as well. The 12-month extension letter has been superseded, and so it is not needed.

For this trip to Canada, ABSOLUTELY, Carry Both the Green Card and the (Original) 18-month extension letter.

 

 

Thanks for the quick answer  
She does carry her expired Green Card and both the letter just in case she gets pulled over (even though we live in Ohio we have immigration checkpoints from time to time). I just wasn't sure what was needed to cross into Canada and back to the US. What about a copy of our marriage certificate? 

[Tom and SooGyeong 87]

13 minutes ago, rfejzullari said:

Thanks for the quick answer  
She does carry her expired Green Card and both the letter just in case she gets pulled over (even though we live in Ohio we have immigration checkpoints from time to time). I just wasn't sure what was needed to cross into Canada and back to the US. What about a copy of our marriage certificate? 

Marriage certificate would not be needed, since  I-551 Green Cards do not distinguish how they were obtained. The only 'clue' is that the issue date and the expiration date displayed represent a 2-year window of time, thereby identifying it as a Conditional Green Card, which are issued for Resident Aliens who obtained their Green Card through marriage. Your Marriage Certificate had to be presented and verified in order to receive the Green Card in the first place, and hence is not needed to travel. Your wife will just need her Expired Green Card and the 18-month extension letter (original, issued on USCIS light green card stock paper). 

 My wife traveled to South Korea this past June with just those two documents, and we are both traveling to South Korea this month as well. For Added Backup, I took a photo of both sides of her Green Card, and the Extension Letter, and emailed them to myself. In an emergency, should her documents become lost or stolen, I can pull up the email on my phone and show that she does indeed exist legally in the USCIS database. 

Enjoy your travels!

[rfejzullari 4]

13 minutes ago, Tom and SooGyeong said:

Marriage certificate would not be needed, since  I-551 Green Cards do not distinguish how they were obtained. The only 'clue' is that the issue date and the expiration date displayed represent a 2-year window of time, thereby identifying it as a Conditional Green Card, which are issued for Resident Aliens who obtained their Green Card through marriage. Your Marriage Certificate had to be presented and verified in order to receive the Green Card in the first place, and hence is not needed to travel. Your wife will just need her Expired Green Card and the 18-month extension letter (original, issued on USCIS light green card stock paper). 

 My wife traveled to South Korea this past June with just those two documents, and we are both traveling to South Korea this month as well. For Added Backup, I took a photo of both sides of her Green Card, and the Extension Letter, and emailed them to myself. In an emergency, should her documents become lost or stolen, I can pull up the email on my phone and show that she does indeed exist legally in the USCIS database. 

Enjoy your travels!

Thanks again for all the information and all the tips 
Enjoy your trip to South Korea, I hope you guys have a great time!

[jamm6512 23]

On 11/19/2018 at 9:18 AM, rfejzullari said:

Thanks for the quick answer  
She does carry her expired Green Card and both the letter just in case she gets pulled over (even though we live in Ohio we have immigration checkpoints from time to time). I just wasn't sure what was needed to cross into Canada and back to the US. What about a copy of our marriage certificate? 

I've crossed a few times with the expired Visa into Canada at the land borders. Obviously bring your passport (and if necessary make sure it's not expired). I also brought both letters (before the full year one had expired) and my green card goes everywhere I go. So just hand over the green card and extension letter over in your passport at your border crossing or at the customs desk at the airport if flying.

[bellashay 14]

Is there anyone filing for N-400  online on January? Are there any guides you're using to help you in gathering documents that you can share here? 

[LizB0322 28]

2 minutes ago, bellashay said:

Is there anyone filing for N-400  online on January? Are there any guides you're using to help you in gathering documents that you can share here? 

March 23rd I will have 3 years as a permanent resident. I read online in the uscis website that we can apply 90 days before third anniversary as permanent resident, so we will apply online for n-400 the last week of December. I logged in my uscis account to start the application and depending  on the info you enter, it will tell you what documents to submit online also if you file online. You can start the application and finish it within 30 days. After 30 days, everything will be deleted and if you don’t submit the application, you will lose all the data you entered and you will have to start all over again. 

[edpa 20]

17 minutes ago, bellashay said:

Is there anyone filing for N-400  online on January? Are there any guides you're using to help you in gathering documents that you can share here? 

Looks like there are some resources on the USCIS website, we're also planning on applying for my spouse's citizenship in January (still waiting for 751 to be processed) - but our 3rd year marriage anniversary is on Jan 1, and he'll have his 3 year greencard anniversary on April 7, so we should be able to apply after January 7 if I understand correctly? Can someone clarify me if I'm wrong?