I-129F June, Part II

[Hadassah123 523]

42 minutes ago, John & Rose said:

Does anything surprise you anymore?  I'm sure they will get around to adding a couple days to my estimated date last month... 😂

 

Nah not really! I smirk at the updates of your timeline, I just don't bother checking mine anymore.

 

40 minutes ago, John & Rose said:

Not a single approval...this is so strange.  I talked to Rose last night.  I cant really imagine POE before June.  There are too many areas of delay now and it all is at USCIS.

 

Strange indeed! I'm hoping for a May POE, June is just too depressing to think about. A whole year from filing and not even AOS? Yep, should have so done CR-1 had we known.

I'm trying not to think of what you wrote earlier that if we withdraw now and file CR-1 we'll likely get our naturalization done faster than under current K1 visa.... that's just utterly depressing.

[purplepink 264]

4 hours ago, JRLee said:

OMG OMG, just got my NOA2 hard copy, no notification from app, text or email alert. 

USCIS website still showing as Case Was Received.

 

Approval Date 01/02/2018 

 

 

I need this to happen to me today.

 

It will be  the best day ever. 

[John & Rose 7,239]

17 minutes ago, Matt&Savannah said:

I'd hope June would be utterly worst case scenario! I'm not sure (and would be interested to learn) what you are basing that on. I look at May filers as a guide and most (not all) of them have had their interview and are entering America. June is 5 months from now, what on earth can 'the powers that be' be doing in the meantime if not processing June applications. I like to believe that early April is more realistic.. Of course I like to believe that Donald Trump himself will ride bareback on a white Unicorn and hand deliver my visa.. Sorry drifted off there for a second 

Just doing a quick and realistic timeline knowing what we know.

 

Since Tier II says that we haven't been assigned yet I used the best case of getting NOA2 by the end of next week

 

January 19 NOA2

8 weeks for USCIS to NVC (March 16) Currently is taking over 7 and is getting longer

4 weeks at NVC (April 13) can be as short as 3 week - should have the number in 2

8 weeks for interview (June 8) Manila is very busy but hopefully we can get an appointment on 45 days out

10 days for VOH (June 18) if no AP delay

2 weeks to pack and POE (July 2)

[Matt&Savannah 67]

23 minutes ago, Matt&Savannah said:

I'd hope June would be utterly worst case scenario! I'm not sure (and would be interested to learn) what you are basing that on. I look at May filers as a guide and most (not all) of them have had their interview and are entering America. June is 5 months from now, what on earth can 'the powers that be' be doing in the meantime if not processing June applications. I like to believe that early April is more realistic.. Of course I like to believe that Donald Trump himself will ride bareback on a white Unicorn and hand deliver my visa.. Sorry drifted off there for a second 

Sorry meant I look at April filers not may... May is depressing 

[John & Rose 7,239]

1 minute ago, Matt&Savannah said:

Sorry meant I look at April filers not may... May is depressing 

There are still May filers waiting on NOA2.  The 6 to 8 weeks that USCIS waits to send files to NVC started last month or so.  Early April still had 3 to 5 for NOA2.  April was the last month that had some "normal" numbers.

[Hadassah123 523]

6 minutes ago, Matt&Savannah said:

Sorry meant I look at April filers not may... May is depressing 

But May scenario is what we're facing now too!

 

A bunch of early May people got lucky and were within the 150 - 165 range, but then we started noticing the slow down to 165+ days plus the additional NVC slow down, which is now affecting May and June filers. April numbers aren't the right example anymore based on the current trends.

Edit: @John & Rose beat me to it!

Edited January 9, 2018 by Hadassah123

[Matt&Savannah 67]

1 minute ago, John & Rose said:

Just doing a quick and realistic timeline knowing what we know.

 

Since Tier II says that we haven't been assigned yet I used the best case of getting NOA2 by the end of next week

 

January 19 NOA2

8 weeks for USCIS to NVC (March 16) Currently is taking over 7 and is getting longer

4 weeks at NVC (April 13) can be as short as 3 week - should have the number in 2

8 weeks for interview (June 8) Manila is very busy but hopefully we can get an appointment on 45 days out

10 days for VOH (June 18) if no AP delay

2 weeks to pack and POE (July 2)

Yeh that timeline looks realistic if you base it on May trends but whose to say it wont speed up a bit now the festive season is over? Do we have any idea why it was slowed so much??? I don't under what you mean when you say tier II.. How do we know what tier we are? I'm June 23rd and a handful of my date have recieved NOA2 since the New Year so surely it could be any day now no?

[Martin3517 488]

Day 200... 

 

[Matt&Savannah 67]

Just now, Martin3517 said:

Day 200... 

 

Right there with you pal 

[Martin3517 488]

Just now, Matt&Savannah said:

Right there with you pal 

It gets me excited people saying that they don't receive any notifications or anything and it will just shown up in their mail. 

[Matt&Savannah 67]

Just now, Martin3517 said:

It gets me excited people saying that they don't receive any notifications or anything and it will just shown up in their mail. 

Tell me about it.. I was sat under my mail box this morning waiting for the mailman 

[Martin3517 488]

2 minutes ago, Matt&Savannah said:

Tell me about it.. I was sat under my mail box this morning waiting for the mailman 

hahaha me too. well after my 12 hrs shift from the hospital I go straight to my mailbox , hauling ### LOL

[Tony and Tillie 340]

8 minutes ago, John & Rose said:

Just doing a quick and realistic timeline knowing what we know.

 

Since Tier II says that we haven't been assigned yet I used the best case of getting NOA2 by the end of next week

 

January 19 NOA2

8 weeks for USCIS to NVC (March 16) Currently is taking over 7 and is getting longer

4 weeks at NVC (April 13) can be as short as 3 week - should have the number in 2

8 weeks for interview (June 8) Manila is very busy but hopefully we can get an appointment on 45 days out

10 days for VOH (June 18) if no AP delay

2 weeks to pack and POE (July 2)

The Embassy in Manila is busy for sure. When you get to the visa interview appointment stage, ask Rose to check for available slots daily. It can change from 8 weeks to 1 week in a matter of days. I found that out when I applied for a B2 visa in the past.

[John & Rose 7,239]

10 minutes ago, Tony and Tillie said:

The Embassy in Manila is busy for sure. When you get to the visa interview appointment stage, ask Rose to check for available slots daily. It can change from 8 weeks to 1 week in a matter of days. I found that out when I applied for a B2 visa in the past.

We have heard the same.  I guess the secret is to book a date but keep checking for cancelations.  Luckily she lives in Metro Manila so she can get to the Embassy relatively quickly using Grab.

[John & Rose 7,239]

31 minutes ago, Matt&Savannah said:

Yeh that timeline looks realistic if you base it on May trends but whose to say it wont speed up a bit now the festive season is over? Do we have any idea why it was slowed so much??? I don't under what you mean when you say tier II.. How do we know what tier we are? I'm June 23rd and a handful of my date have recieved NOA2 since the New Year so surely it could be any day now no?

The holidays had very little impact on the timelines.  We are past the holidays and there hasn't been a single approval in two days.  It is a solid 8 weeks waiting for USCIS to send approved files to NVC and NVC is just marginally slower, from 2 to 3 weeks so far.  3 to 4 months from NOA2 to interview is not out of the realm of possibility.

 

Tier I and Tier II are representatives at USCIS.  Tier I has no information and Tier II has access to individual petition information.

 

It can certainly be any day now but keep in mind that some May filers are in days 230 to 240.  June 6 filers are dat 217 and you are day 200.  There are 2200 June filers waiting of the original 4300.  Yes, it can certainly be any day now for any of us.  There is no real pattern.  June 6 still has 120 filers who are virgins (per sqounky online updates).  We can go at anytime from today until a month from now.  It is just a very bizarre time.

 

I think many of us believe the timelines started slipping in April when the USCIS was directed to re-prioritize the work and family visa process.  Family visas were put on a back burner and will most likely stay there until there is a change in the administration.  Family immigration is not a very popular thing right now.  Business is.

Edited January 9, 2018 by John & Rose