Sen. Al Franken Accused Of Sexual Assault By LA Model And Radio Host

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

1 minute ago, bcking said:

If he admitted to the accusation then that accusation is a 0% chance of being false and 100% chance of being true.

 

Unless he is lying about it, but that would be highly counterintuitive in this scenario. But to be fair maybe it's more of a 99% chance of truth or something, accounting for the fact that Al may also being lying.

Ahh, ok.  I can see that.   But still... crimes like this really don't fit the mold of statistics.  Not enough evidence to even identify any outliers.

[bcking 3,157]

1 minute ago, IDWAF said:

You're still making the false assumption that criminal matters can be reduced to a mathematical problem with a simple solution or probability of an outcome.  Flawed thinking my friend.  This is not how statistics should be applied.

I've never said that the quantitative model is the end all, be all.

 

It is perfectly valid and logical to consider the data available and what outcomes is expected from that. Then combine that with qualitative assessments of factors we can't quantify.

 

The problem is people here love to take the simplest approaches possible, and the suggestion of adding complexity or a multilayered approach to an assessment of a situation is too much.

[bcking 3,157]

1 minute ago, IDWAF said:

Ahh, ok.  I can see that.   But still... crimes like this really don't fit the mold of statistics.  Not enough evidence to even identify any outliers.

There have been studies looking any sexual assault allegations. I was using data from those studies, which is a reasonable starting place.

 

I've never claimed we should stop there. But I think it's a reasonable starting place to frame our thought process.

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

6 minutes ago, bcking said:

I've never said that the quantitative model is the end all, be all.

 

It is perfectly valid and logical to consider the data available and what outcomes is expected from that. Then combine that with qualitative assessments of factors we can't quantify.

 

The problem is people here love to take the simplest approaches possible, and the suggestion of adding complexity or a multilayered approach to an assessment of a situation is too much.

Your math is fine.  I'm sure you do great at calculating a Rx for each patients given mass.  But I think you're spinning your tires here.

 

Your skills might be put to better use explaining why St. Louis is the most violent city in the US, and why Chicago doesn't even make the top 10...

Edited November 20, 2017 by IDWAF

[Boiler 45,481]

So if my chances of obtaining carnal knowledge today of a Playboy Bunny is close to zero, how many days will it be before it becomes a 50/50 shot?

[Dashinka 24,492]

10 minutes ago, Boiler said:

So if my chances of obtaining carnal knowledge today of a Playboy Bunny is close to zero, how many days will it be before it becomes a 50/50 shot?

Do they have to drive through the snow to get to you?  If so, I would say your chances are null until maybe April.

 

[Boiler 45,481]

1 minute ago, Bill & Katya said:

Do they have to drive through the snow to get to you?  If so, I would say your chances are null until maybe April.

 

Well the wind has blown all the snow away, mid afternoon before I ventured out, there is a high sided vehicle advisory so no empty vans with a mattress in the back or RV's.

[The Nature Boy 7,659]

2 hours ago, IDWAF said:

OR it could have a 100% chance of being false.  I took statistics also.  Three times. 

Guess how many times I tool English composition 

[The Nature Boy 7,659]

2 hours ago, bcking said:

I've never said that the quantitative model is the end all, be all.

 

It is perfectly valid and logical to consider the data available and what outcomes is expected from that. Then combine that with qualitative assessments of factors we can't quantify.

 

The problem is people here love to take the simplest approaches possible, and the suggestion of adding complexity or a multilayered approach to an assessment of a situation is too much.

A like for using quanataive model in a post about sexual harrasment etc.

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

2 hours ago, Nature Boy Flair said:

Guess how many times I tool English composition 

On your bucket list? 

[The Nature Boy 7,659]

2 minutes ago, IDWAF said:

On your bucket list? 

2 quarter of remedial.  Took me 2 times to pass 101. 3 attempts at the Ga regents. Had to take remedial in Officers basic course.

Passed masters level genetics courses with a 4.0 taking double load and went thru two years of computer school in 9 months.

 

My point is, just cause a fish can't climb a tree does not mean the fish is dumb.

[TBoneTX 45,273]

Several posts have been removed because of bickering or quoting bickering comments.  Please don't bicker.

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

3 hours ago, TBoneTX said:

Several posts have been removed because of bickering or quoting bickering comments.  Please don't bicker.

We were doing just fine without the PoPo in here.  I much prefer your marriage jokes over your mod action.  Just sayin'.

[Dashinka 24,492]

4 hours ago, TBoneTX said:

Several posts have been removed because of bickering or quoting bickering comments.  Please don't bicker.

 

[The Nature Boy 7,659]

2 hours ago, IDWAF said:

We were doing just fine without the PoPo in here.  I much prefer your marriage jokes over your mod action.  Just sayin'.

Please report to cell #2 Otis Campbell.