November 2017 Filers K1 VISA I-129F (merged)

[Rackle10187 55]

30 minutes ago, x_driven_x said:

And here's a chart showing what it would could look like if we estimate a 50% silent factor, based on the above post.

 

I would love a Silent approval in my mailbox sometime early next week!!

[Carlo G 21]

Hi guys! Congrats to everybody who got approved. 

 

Just curious as I've been trying to figure out within this thread any discussion about Filing location. I am pretty curious if there is a difference on movement based on where the filing location is and if the other locations moves slower/faster. 

 

I have also noticed using the app that WAC case numbers (like 5-10 caes) next to me are approved and have seen a trend of about 3 days before the previous WAC cases are touched. For example with WAC  case ending with 759 (Approved 5/21) then 750 (Approved 5/24). I'm at 731 and basing it on this trend, Ill probably have 3-6 business days before any update! Lol. Thoughts? Any feedback is appreciated

Edited May 27, 2018 by Carlo G

[K1visaHopeful 2,814]

1 minute ago, Carlo G said:

Hi guys! Congrats to everybody who got approved. 

 

Just curious as I've been trying to figure out within this thread any discussion about Filing location. I am pretty curious if there is a difference on movement based on where the filing location is and if the other locations moves slower/faster. ALL K1s are first mailed to the Texas Lockbox and then sent to California unless they have special circumstances (criminal charges, further investigation needed). 

 

I have also noticed using the app that WAC case numbers (like 5-10 caes) next to me are approved and have seen a trend of about 3 days before the previous WAC cases are touched. For example with WAC  case ending with 759 (Approved 5/21) then 750 (Approved 5/24). I'm at 731 and basing it on this trend, Ill probably have 3-6 business days before any update! Lol. Thoughts? Any feedback is appreciated

IF you can figure out the algorithm to the method to their madness I'm sure I won't be the only one to pay you a trillion dollars. 

 

[Carlo G 21]

3 minutes ago, K1visaHopeful said:

 

Thanks for the information @K1visaHopeful

 

[nykolos 711]

14 hours ago, Martina_logan said:

Hey everyone! I've been stalking this thread since the beginning but never posted anything. I just wanted to give hope to middle November fillers. 

 

We got approved! 

Noa1 old website- November 14th

Noa1 new website -  November 16th

Noa 2 - May 25th

 

 

 

 

I have the same dates and nothing    Good to see their at least working on these dates, hopefully by the end of this coming week I'll have approval.. Congratulations on yours, I wish you the best.  

 

[nykolos 711]

11 hours ago, x_driven_x said:

I've done some of this analysis previously. Here's a chart that shows only the month of May.

 

There are currently 2366 remaining. 

In May, they've touched an average of 47 "virgin" cases per working day.

During the most recent week, that average was 79.

 

So, if they touch on average 80 new cases a day going forward that would take about 29 working days to finish November...

However, we know that we historically have only seen 70% of what happens, so if we take that into account, there are probably only 1988 cases left which would take 24 working days at the 80 per day pace. 

 

 

 

Wow! I was curious at what pace they were moving and you answered that question well. Thank you for the information and your efforts, its quite helpful.   

[Sandy05 24]

11 minutes ago, nykolos said:

I have the same dates and nothing    Good to see their at least working on these dates, hopefully by the end of this coming week I'll have approval.. Congratulations on yours, I wish you the best.  

 

If it makes you feel better we still haven't heard anything either and we also have the same dates.  

[Jeffreyyu 303]

20 hours ago, hassan247 said:

I appreciate your knowledge and we had previously met because I used to live in the US for 26 years and we had known each other, but ever since I came out here in September 2015 she wasn't able to come out here. And the application was delayed due to stupid lawyer delays and then when we finally got it filed it literally just passed the 2 years window (October 2017)

That totally sucks.. . .. Your in a pretty tough situation,  in my opinion i think you guys will have to meet then start the process over are just get married and go cr1 which is much better but takes little more time. .. .. I'm pretty sure things will work out in the end God's willing.  God bless yall 

[Little_Vixen 1,869]

17 hours ago, x_driven_x said:

So', I'm bored and decided to look at some data and make some guesses...

 

According to VisaJourney data, there are 310 K-1s in the VJ database for November 2017. 91 of those have received NOA2.  

That gives us a 29.3% NOA2 rate (approvals) thus far.

 

If we extrapolate that all to all November cases that weren't rejected in the beginning, 3374, that would mean 978 approvals have potentially happened if we can assume non VJ members are being approved at the same rate as VJ members who have updated their timelines. And we know that some VJ members haven't updated their timelines since the first entry, so this is possibly a little low. Our current known RFE rate is about 80% of the known approved cases, so the same ratios would mean there are possibly 783 cases in RFE status.

 

This would be 1761 cases approved or in RFE using these extrapolated estimates.  In our scans, we're only showing 881.... so that would mean possible a 50% silent rate now; which is not too surprising if the historical rate was 30% and they are now starting to use the new system more and more and probably use the old system less and less. We have seen a lot of people posting the old website wasn't updated for them, so I think this is somewhat believable.

 

If it's true, that 1761 cases have been touched... We'd be just 50% of the way finished now and I'd expect them to do a lot of cases next week and then start December June 4th following week while they finish up November. I would say if we do happen to see a tiny trickle of December cases next week, then these estimates are pretty accurate. Let's see what happens. I'm starting to revise my December start date a bit closer...

@Little_Vixen I would watch for December next week, but especially the week after! 

 @Naes

 

I would say those of us November filers still waiting have a very high chance of getting our approvals or an RFE in the next 2 weeks. 

 

I really hope you're right. I'll keep an eye on the scans this week. 

Thanks for cracking the numbers!

[HLee1109 182]

Good luck to you all tomorrow!!!

[Ann and Meet 95]

9 minutes ago, HLee1109 said:

Good luck to you all tomorrow!!!

We have to wait until Tuesday. Monday is a holiday. 

[HLee1109 182]

3 minutes ago, Ann and Meet said:

We have to wait until Tuesday. Monday is a holiday. 

uuugh I hate that! My bad. Hopefully tuesday it will be full of approvals then.

[amorvincitomnia 23]

Hi everyone! Just new here, and I've scan everything from page 1 and I know that you all are helpful.

I hope I can be of help to you too. For now, I got some slight situation.

 

NOA 1 is November 21

NOA 2 is May 4

 

Got elated of course, also for everyone who got their NOA 2, and I'm all for those still patiently waiting for theirs.

We got approved but I'm still as anxious as ever, I guess not until we all got our visas

and go through that border, marry our fiances, then that would be the ultimate relief.

 

I just want to ask tho if it's normal that up to now, online case status whether new or old is still not updated?

 

We still don't have a case number. I am the beneficiary and I haven't received any mail yet.

 

It'll be a first that we will try to call NVC tomorrow since I just found here that I should be calling even if only 5 days have passed.

I guess we believed the part that we should only call if we haven't received any in a minimum of 30 days.

 

Edited May 28, 2018 by amorvincitomnia

[Mike & Tanja 309]

52 minutes ago, amorvincitomnia said:

Hi everyone! Just new here, and I've scan everything from page 1 and I know that you all are helpful.

I hope I can be of help to you too. For now, I got some slight situation.

 

NOA 1 is November 21

NOA 2 is May 4

 

Got elated of course, also for everyone who got their NOA 2, and I'm all for those still patiently waiting for theirs.

We got approved but I'm still as anxious as ever, I guess not until we all got our visas

and go through that border, marry our fiances, then that would be the ultimate relief.

 

I just want to ask tho if it's normal that up to now, online case status whether new or old is still not updated?

 

We still don't have a case number. I am the beneficiary and I haven't received any mail yet.

 

It'll be a first that we will try to call NVC tomorrow since I just found here that I should be calling even if only 5 days have passed.

I guess we believed the part that we should only call if we haven't received any in a minimum of 30 days.

 

Congratulations. Yes it happens that neither old nor new website gets updated. We call it a silent approval. A few ppl who got approved started to call NVC almost right after approval. I think it doesn't hurt to do it. 😊 But if I'm not wrong, it takes a while until they can give you the new file #

[x_driven_x 1,778]

1 hour ago, amorvincitomnia said:

Hi everyone! Just new here, and I've scan everything from page 1 and I know that you all are helpful.

I hope I can be of help to you too. For now, I got some slight situation.

 

NOA 1 is November 21

NOA 2 is May 4

 

Got elated of course, also for everyone who got their NOA 2, and I'm all for those still patiently waiting for theirs.

We got approved but I'm still as anxious as ever, I guess not until we all got our visas

and go through that border, marry our fiances, then that would be the ultimate relief.

 

I just want to ask tho if it's normal that up to now, online case status whether new or old is still not updated?

 

We still don't have a case number. I am the beneficiary and I haven't received any mail yet.

 

It'll be a first that we will try to call NVC tomorrow since I just found here that I should be calling even if only 5 days have passed.

I guess we believed the part that we should only call if we haven't received any in a minimum of 30 days.

 

I wouldn't expect the old or new websites to be updated by now... however, most NVC case numbers seem to be available 14-16 days after NOA2, so I'd give the NVC a call on Tuesday and see if they have a case number for you.