November 2017 Filers K1 VISA I-129F (merged)

[K1visaHopeful 2,814]

1 minute ago, AliTan said:

Wondering, I mailed my application 11/30, still waiting for the NOA-1.  Am I considered a November or December filer on this forum?

We go buy the NOA date (notice date on the hardcopy of your NOA1).

You will most likely be a Dec filer. Good luck!

[Olumide & Funlola 73]

9 minutes ago, AliTan said:

Wondering, I mailed my application 11/30, still waiting for the NOA-1.  Am I considered a November or December filer on this forum?

You'll be a December filer. I mailed mine out October 30th but got my NOA1 in november so I'm considered a November filer. 

[pinkkk 76]

On 11/30/2017 at 5:56 AM, K1visaHopeful said:

How do you have access to this info to be able to tell if a case has been worked on or not? (I have too much time on my hands too, lol)

What does it mean for pending -touched and pending -untouched?

[K1visaHopeful 2,814]

1 minute ago, Cathphil said:

What does it mean for pending -touched and pending -untouched?

^^^^me too? I don’t understand where this info is available for all to see either but I’d love to view it....

[Naes 12,205]

8 minutes ago, K1visaHopeful said:

^^^^me too? I don’t understand where this info is available for all to see either but I’d love to view it....

In my signature there is a link to the google drive and all the lists are there for everyone. In each month one person is scanning and updating for all of us, so the servers don't get too busy. I do it for all non active months for now to share info.

 

10 minutes ago, Cathphil said:

What does it mean for pending -touched and pending -untouched?

Touched means at least somehow updated (because it is hard to know the first dates if he case was already updated somehow when we first put it in the list) a pending case means all the cases that are not rejected or approved, rfe sent, or received by uscis, or case received status.

untouched means never been touched by an adjudicator means the status is still case received.

 

 

I'll try to make a full update with all the information this weekend for newcomers  

 

however please note that that it is not like we have any info that is not on a case tracker app. This is just gathered in one place and that's it.

 

 

Edited December 6, 2017 by Naes

[K1visaHopeful 2,814]

4 minutes ago, Naes said:

In my signature there is a link to the google drive and all the lists are there for everyone. In each month one person is scanning and updating for all of us, so the servers don't get too busy. I do it for all non active months for now to share info.

 

Touched means at least somehow updated (because it is hard to know the first dates if he case was already updated somehow when we first put it in the list) a pending case means all the cases that are not rejected or approved, rfe sent, or received by uscis, or case received status.

untouched means never been touched by an adjudicator means the status is still case received.

 

 

I'll try to make a full update with all the information this weekend for newcomers  

 

however please note that that it is not like we have any info that is not on a case tracker app. This is just gathered in one place and that's it.

 

 

So do you mean that you are inputting the sequence of petition numbers for that particular month into case tracker and monitoring the “case history”? 

I think I understand now. (And only because I’m a Nov filer and obviously have nothing listed under “case history” yet).

 

[pinkkk 76]

On 11/24/2017 at 11:54 AM, Daniel P said:

So... this is the distribution and the Gauss curve for the number of days between received and approved cases, for the month of May 2017 (as to 11/20/2017). I left out seven cases that seemed to be expedites. Additionally, I only considered received cases, meaning I also left out some cases that had already been touched, like Date of Birth or Name updated cases. The remaining cases (and big majority) used for this calculations made a total of 1522.

 

Those 1522 cases gave a mean of 169.95 days from Received to Approval date, with a stardard deviation of 9.46 days.

 

That curve below is actually very useful to get some interesting probabilities. If we assumed that June is going to follow a not very different pattern than the previous month, we could say that, for example:

• The probability for a June filer to be approved in less than 160 days is only 14.65%.
• That the probability for a June filer to be approved between 160 and 180 days is 70.95%.
• That the probability for a June filer to be approved in more than 170 days is (an astonishing) 49.78%.
• Or that the probability for a June filer to be approved in more than 180 days is (a still astonishing) 29.67%.

 

Hopefully the processing times will lower in the next months and we'll see how that curve will slowly be moving to the left and those percentages lower or raise in our favor. Fingers crossed!! 

 

 

Hi.Can you also know how many days will November filers wait for their approval? I have read a blog on visatutor that November-February filers (winter season) has faster approval. 

[Naes 12,205]

4 minutes ago, K1visaHopeful said:

So do you mean that you are inputting the sequence of petition numbers for that particular month into case tracker and monitoring the “case history”? 

I think I understand now. (And only because I’m a Nov filer and obviously have nothing listed under “case history” yet).

 

We have a script for it. No we don't see a case history, just the case status. If you download the app case tracker for example and search any case number you can see up to 500 cases in each search with only their dates and status. This is basically the same thing we are doing but we do in bulk.

[Naes 12,205]

7 minutes ago, Cathphil said:

Hi.Can you also know how many days will November filers wait for their approval? I have read a blog on visatutor that November-February filers (winter season) has faster approval. 

Right now that does not apply. 

 

Because se of the backlog they are still doing mainly June with May.

 

average wait time is 170-190 days. And we are hoping this wait will ease down to less than 160s.

 

in addition; because April was spread through a longer span (they are still doing April too) and May was also out of the ordinary times (some people are at 200+ days) we are waiting for June to come up in order to calculate better estimations.

 

@Daniel P is out there waiting for the June to spread so we can know better...

 

actually Daniel you're quiet what are you cooking? 😁

Edited December 6, 2017 by Naes

[pinkkk 76]

On 11/30/2017 at 5:56 AM, K1visaHopeful said:

Is it because of the new administration and president? or because there are just too many filers these past few months?

[Naes 12,205]

@Cathphil @K1visaHopeful

 

Basically guys we are all all trying to work together with whatever means we have, using the tools and skills we have. And everybody has free access to the data so please use it  

 

we all want 1 thing and that's to get approved fast. But these are just assumptions cause there is no regulated way in uscis they are really moving rather randomly. But ask anything you want and check the active months to see what's happening. You'll know everything in a week believe me!

 

the new administration obviously scared some green card holders and more people applied for naturalization than normal. Also the h1b problem didn't help and caused a backlog. The administration wants the process to be stricter so more rfes are issued. However there are changes in every administration and backlogs too. If you search uscis processing etc in google you can find articles about these situations  

Edited December 6, 2017 by Naes

[K1visaHopeful 2,814]

2 minutes ago, Naes said:

@Cathphil @K1visaHopeful

 

Basically guys we are all all trying to work together with whatever means we have, using the tools and skills we have. And everybody has free access to the data so please use it  

 

we all want 1 thing and that's to get approved fast. But these are just assumptions cause there is no regulated way in uscis they are really moving rather randomly. But ask anything you want and check the active months to see what's happening. You'll know everything in a week believe me!

 

the new administration obviously scared some green card holders and more people applied for naturalization than normal. Also the h1b problem didn't help and caused a backlog. The administration wants the process to be stricter so more rfes are issued. However there are changes in every administration and backlogs too. If you search uscis processing etc in google you. And find articles about these situations  

Thank you for taking the time to explain and thank you for your hard work (speaking to the others too who us newbies aren’t familiar with yet)!

I just want to understand the process is all. And maybe once I do I can help with stats too. I’m a “HOW does this work” type of person so it frustrates me to sit in the “dark” and not have some inclining to the method to the madness. Sorry for my lack of knowledge (I know I don’t have to say that but I will) and thanks for the explanations. We’ll all soon be on board. 

[Naes 12,205]

Just now, K1visaHopeful said:

Thank you for taking the time to explain and thank you for your hard work (speaking to the others too who us newbies aren’t familiar with yet)!

I just want to understand the process is all. And maybe once I do I can help with stats too. I’m a “HOW does this work” type of person so it frustrates me to sit in the “dark” and not have some inclining to the method to the madness. Sorry for my lack of knowledge (I know I don’t have to say that but I will) and thanks for the explanations. We’ll all soon be on board. 

It is a looong process by the time it comes closer to you, you'll know so much you'll be surprised... I definitely am surprised as I knew nothing 2 months ago.

[K1visaHopeful 2,814]

1 minute ago, Naes said:

It is a looong process by the time it comes closer to you, you'll know so much you'll be surprised... I definitely am surprised as I knew nothing 2 months ago.

Haha, trust me. I’ve been researching the K1 process since Dec 2016 and we finally applied just now after having everything ready to mail in April before the form change and had to start over because of it.  (Damn G-325 hours wasted + time needed to track down new info required for Part 3=at least 100 pages of triple copied forms in the circular file).

Funny though, but I see it totally now. Most of the members posting the stats on this thread are just a few weeks behind us. Don’t be surprised if I follow you all 🤣

[Naes 12,205]

1 minute ago, K1visaHopeful said:

Haha, trust me. I’ve been researching the K1 process since Dec 2016 and we finally applied just now after having everything ready to mail in April before the form change and had to start over because of it.  (Damn G-325 hours wasted + time needed to track down new info required for Part 3=at least 100 pages of triple copied forms in the circular file).

Funny though, but I see it totally now. Most of the members posting the stats on this thread are just a few weeks behind us. Don’t be surprised if I follow you all 🤣

Come on in  

 

I was more like what are these code words of noa and rfe....