November 2017 Filers K1 VISA I-129F (merged)

[CaseyCobos 100]

23 minutes ago, Noemi & Ivan said:

And my date Nov 6 which has the most people doesnt even get looked at 😪💔

Nov 6 too. It’s killing me. I just want a few people from 6 touched so we know they haven’t forgotten about us!

[minttea 4]

12 hours ago, Melinda72 said:

Hi, your timeline shows NOA1 December 1, is that correct?

 

Absolutely. Received on Nov 28th and NOA1 on Dec 1st. 

[x_driven_x 1,778]

Here's some interesting data, fuzzy math, and some senseless babbling about it...

 

In the 1st quarter of 2018, USCIS received 11,460 new I-129f petitions.

During this quarter, USCIS approved 5,708 and denied 1,991.

At the end of the quarter there were still 28,587 applications pending. This includes those in received status, all of the RFEs, and various other update statuses. 

 

I wish we knew how many RFEs were still outstanding, but they don't seem to publish that. 

 

5,708 + 1,991 = 7,699 total cases worked to completion. There were 68 working days in Q1, so they are processing about 113 Approvals + Denials per day + ??? RFEs, withdrawals, and other minor updates.

 

Another way to look at is is they say processing times are 5 -7  months, which means that entire backlog of 28,587 should be processed in less than 7 months, that's just over 4,000 cases per month. At approximately 21 working days per month after weekends and holidays, we're just under 200 cases a day, with some extra because we know some cases get multiple RFEs or other updates.... I could totally see them processing just as many RFEs in a day as they do approvals or denials, so I think this very rough math checks out. Or, if we go back to the known numbers of received, approvals, and denials, there is a gap of just under 3800.

 

I'd be willing to bet they mostly have enough staff to keep pace with applications coming in, and thus these could potentially represent cases that have been worked and are sitting in RFE status, that's about 50% of the approvals or denials.

So... I'd be willing to guess their average daily processing is somewhere between 160 and 230 cases a day across all months. 

 

What are they doing on "slow" days in the scans like this? Are they tidying up past months? Silent Approvals & RFEs ? Preparing a bunch of work for the following day to cruise through it? 

 

Data: https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Resources/Reports and Studies/Immigration Forms Data/All Form Types/Quarterly_All_Forms_FY18Q1.pdf

 

Also, the Case Inquiry date is now up to October 17th, in theory this means they believe they should have all cases prior to this date completed. So... to finish November there'd be about 6 weeks left to go in a perfect world.  If they are closing about 200 cases a day, in 6 weeks that,s about 6,000 cases. The remainder of October (1700ish) November (2900ish), and some oddballs from month's past and the start of December (the other 1,400).

 

Maybe I'm just babbling and making up, but I like to at least attempt to make sense of the known data... and I'd estimate almost all of us should have our approvals in 6 weeks at the latest; and 50% or more of us have it by the end of the month or the first week of June.

 

And for you December filers reading, I estimate they will start December processing no earlier than June 2nd, but most likely closer to June 12th. I don't know jack though, it's just a wild guess.

[CCCCCF 174]

6 minutes ago, x_driven_x said:

Here's some interesting data, fuzzy math, and some senseless babbling about it...

 

In the 1st quarter of 2018, USCIS received 11,460 new I-129f petitions.

During this quarter, USCIS approved 5,708 and denied 1,991.

At the end of the quarter there were still 28,587 applications pending. This includes those in received status, all of the RFEs, and various other update statuses. 

 

I wish we knew how many RFEs were still outstanding, but they don't seem to publish that. 

 

5,708 + 1,991 = 7,699 total cases worked to completion. There were 68 working days in Q1, so they are processing about 113 Approvals + Denials per day + ??? RFEs, withdrawals, and other minor updates.

 

Another way to look at is is they say processing times are 5 -7  months, which means that entire backlog of 28,587 should be processed in less than 7 months, that's just over 4,000 cases per month. At approximately 21 working days per month after weekends and holidays, we're just under 200 cases a day, with some extra because we know some cases get multiple RFEs or other updates.... I could totally see them processing just as many RFEs in a day as they do approvals or denials, so I think this very rough math checks out. Or, if we go back to the known numbers of received, approvals, and denials, there is a gap of just under 3800.

 

I'd be willing to bet they mostly have enough staff to keep pace with applications coming in, and thus these could potentially represent cases that have been worked and are sitting in RFE status, that's about 50% of the approvals or denials.

So... I'd be willing to guess their average daily processing is somewhere between 160 and 230 cases a day across all months. 

 

What are they doing on "slow" days in the scans like this? Are they tidying up past months? Silent Approvals & RFEs ? Preparing a bunch of work for the following day to cruise through it? 

 

Data: https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Resources/Reports and Studies/Immigration Forms Data/All Form Types/Quarterly_All_Forms_FY18Q1.pdf

 

Also, the Case Inquiry date is now up to October 17th, in theory this means they believe they should have all cases prior to this date completed. So... to finish November there'd be about 6 weeks left to go in a perfect world.  If they are closing about 200 cases a day, in 6 weeks that,s about 6,000 cases. The remainder of October (1700ish) November (2900ish), and some oddballs from month's past and the start of December (the other 1,400).

 

Maybe I'm just babbling and making up, but I like to at least attempt to make sense of the known data... and I'd estimate almost all of us should have our approvals in 6 weeks at the latest; and 50% or more of us have it by the end of the month or the first week of June.

 

And for you December filers reading, I estimate they will start December processing no earlier than June 2nd, but most likely closer to June 12th. I don't know jack though, it's just a wild guess.

Thanks for the analysis! This is kind of making sense. No matter what, we appreciate that you provide us with the scans and thoughts with logics!!     We just hope USCIS could clear the mess as soon as possible!

[Ryanmaria2018 186]

55 minutes ago, x_driven_x said:

Here's some interesting data, fuzzy math, and some senseless babbling about it...

 

In the 1st quarter of 2018, USCIS received 11,460 new I-129f petitions.

During this quarter, USCIS approved 5,708 and denied 1,991.

At the end of the quarter there were still 28,587 applications pending. This includes those in received status, all of the RFEs, and various other update statuses. 

 

I wish we knew how many RFEs were still outstanding, but they don't seem to publish that. 

 

5,708 + 1,991 = 7,699 total cases worked to completion. There were 68 working days in Q1, so they are processing about 113 Approvals + Denials per day + ??? RFEs, withdrawals, and other minor updates.

 

Another way to look at is is they say processing times are 5 -7  months, which means that entire backlog of 28,587 should be processed in less than 7 months, that's just over 4,000 cases per month. At approximately 21 working days per month after weekends and holidays, we're just under 200 cases a day, with some extra because we know some cases get multiple RFEs or other updates.... I could totally see them processing just as many RFEs in a day as they do approvals or denials, so I think this very rough math checks out. Or, if we go back to the known numbers of received, approvals, and denials, there is a gap of just under 3800.

 

I'd be willing to bet they mostly have enough staff to keep pace with applications coming in, and thus these could potentially represent cases that have been worked and are sitting in RFE status, that's about 50% of the approvals or denials.

So... I'd be willing to guess their average daily processing is somewhere between 160 and 230 cases a day across all months. 

 

What are they doing on "slow" days in the scans like this? Are they tidying up past months? Silent Approvals & RFEs ? Preparing a bunch of work for the following day to cruise through it? 

 

Data: https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Resources/Reports and Studies/Immigration Forms Data/All Form Types/Quarterly_All_Forms_FY18Q1.pdf

 

Also, the Case Inquiry date is now up to October 17th, in theory this means they believe they should have all cases prior to this date completed. So... to finish November there'd be about 6 weeks left to go in a perfect world.  If they are closing about 200 cases a day, in 6 weeks that,s about 6,000 cases. The remainder of October (1700ish) November (2900ish), and some oddballs from month's past and the start of December (the other 1,400).

 

Maybe I'm just babbling and making up, but I like to at least attempt to make sense of the known data... and I'd estimate almost all of us should have our approvals in 6 weeks at the latest; and 50% or more of us have it by the end of the month or the first week of June.

 

And for you December filers reading, I estimate they will start December processing no earlier than June 2nd, but most likely closer to June 12th. I don't know jack though, it's just a wild guess.

x_driven_x what would we do without you? Wow that's pretty awesome data there and most likely right on too. Nice you can give us an assessment of how they work and how they are processed a day and weeks and months so thanks for the hard work keeping us November filers encouraged as much as possible. I'm a November 20th filer so I'm somewhere looking  at least late May early June by your calculations. Great Job for the scans and data my friend!!!

Edited May 15, 2018 by RyanMaria 2018
correction

[Naes 12,205]

3 hours ago, x_driven_x said:

It doesn't like me posting too many graphics, so on Saturday I will post updated versions of the trend line charts, adding this weeks worth of data.

You can delete the old ones through your “my attachments” 

[Naes 12,205]

1 hour ago, x_driven_x said:

Here's some interesting data, fuzzy math, and some senseless babbling about it...

 

In the 1st quarter of 2018, USCIS received 11,460 new I-129f petitions.

During this quarter, USCIS approved 5,708 and denied 1,991.

At the end of the quarter there were still 28,587 applications pending. This includes those in received status, all of the RFEs, and various other update statuses. 

 

I wish we knew how many RFEs were still outstanding, but they don't seem to publish that. 

 

5,708 + 1,991 = 7,699 total cases worked to completion. There were 68 working days in Q1, so they are processing about 113 Approvals + Denials per day + ??? RFEs, withdrawals, and other minor updates.

 

Another way to look at is is they say processing times are 5 -7  months, which means that entire backlog of 28,587 should be processed in less than 7 months, that's just over 4,000 cases per month. At approximately 21 working days per month after weekends and holidays, we're just under 200 cases a day, with some extra because we know some cases get multiple RFEs or other updates.... I could totally see them processing just as many RFEs in a day as they do approvals or denials, so I think this very rough math checks out. Or, if we go back to the known numbers of received, approvals, and denials, there is a gap of just under 3800.

 

I'd be willing to bet they mostly have enough staff to keep pace with applications coming in, and thus these could potentially represent cases that have been worked and are sitting in RFE status, that's about 50% of the approvals or denials.

So... I'd be willing to guess their average daily processing is somewhere between 160 and 230 cases a day across all months. 

 

What are they doing on "slow" days in the scans like this? Are they tidying up past months? Silent Approvals & RFEs ? Preparing a bunch of work for the following day to cruise through it? 

 

Data: https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Resources/Reports and Studies/Immigration Forms Data/All Form Types/Quarterly_All_Forms_FY18Q1.pdf

 

Also, the Case Inquiry date is now up to October 17th, in theory this means they believe they should have all cases prior to this date completed. So... to finish November there'd be about 6 weeks left to go in a perfect world.  If they are closing about 200 cases a day, in 6 weeks that,s about 6,000 cases. The remainder of October (1700ish) November (2900ish), and some oddballs from month's past and the start of December (the other 1,400).

 

Maybe I'm just babbling and making up, but I like to at least attempt to make sense of the known data... and I'd estimate almost all of us should have our approvals in 6 weeks at the latest; and 50% or more of us have it by the end of the month or the first week of June.

 

And for you December filers reading, I estimate they will start December processing no earlier than June 2nd, but most likely closer to June 12th. I don't know jack though, it's just a wild guess.

Awesome!

 

addition : in the scans it showed roughly 4000 cases as processed as approved during this quarter so about 1700 cases was silent noa2.(that makes 30%)

 

in this quarter they went really slow and had mostly covered April May and June. However June was extremely slow unlike these past 4 months since they started July. 

 

the past quarter (quarter 2) had 4967 cases approved that we can see. If we go by 30% that should be 6500 cases at least.

 

Consistently denials at uscis stage stays at about 2000s. 

 

If you need any other info info let me know! (Applies to anyone!)

 

I’ll update all months this weekend to let you know.

 

Good luck!

 

sorry i was away for a while.. finally finished my medical and gathered all the documents...now I wait (again) and hope everything will be alright  

[x_driven_x 1,778]

5 minutes ago, Naes said:

addition : in the scans it showed roughly 4000 cases as processed as approved during this quarter so about 1700 cases was silent noa2.(that makes 30%)

...

sorry i was away for a while.. finally finished my medical and gathered all the documents...now I wait (again) and hope everything will be alright  

It's good to get some data that can confirm the 30% silent figure which I'd seen thrown out before. 

 

In that case, October is probably about 80% done by now, as a fairly large portion of the 1600 left are probably silent NOA2s. 

 

GOod luck with your upcoming interview!!!

Edited May 15, 2018 by x_driven_x

[Jacobson 42]

3 hours ago, x_driven_x said:

Here's some interesting data, fuzzy math, and some senseless babbling about it...

 

In the 1st quarter of 2018, USCIS received 11,460 new I-129f petitions.

During this quarter, USCIS approved 5,708 and denied 1,991.

At the end of the quarter there were still 28,587 applications pending. This includes those in received status, all of the RFEs, and various other update statuses. 

 

I wish we knew how many RFEs were still outstanding, but they don't seem to publish that. 

 

5,708 + 1,991 = 7,699 total cases worked to completion. There were 68 working days in Q1, so they are processing about 113 Approvals + Denials per day + ??? RFEs, withdrawals, and other minor updates.

 

Another way to look at is is they say processing times are 5 -7  months, which means that entire backlog of 28,587 should be processed in less than 7 months, that's just over 4,000 cases per month. At approximately 21 working days per month after weekends and holidays, we're just under 200 cases a day, with some extra because we know some cases get multiple RFEs or other updates.... I could totally see them processing just as many RFEs in a day as they do approvals or denials, so I think this very rough math checks out. Or, if we go back to the known numbers of received, approvals, and denials, there is a gap of just under 3800.

 

I'd be willing to bet they mostly have enough staff to keep pace with applications coming in, and thus these could potentially represent cases that have been worked and are sitting in RFE status, that's about 50% of the approvals or denials.

So... I'd be willing to guess their average daily processing is somewhere between 160 and 230 cases a day across all months. 

 

What are they doing on "slow" days in the scans like this? Are they tidying up past months? Silent Approvals & RFEs ? Preparing a bunch of work for the following day to cruise through it? 

 

Data: https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Resources/Reports and Studies/Immigration Forms Data/All Form Types/Quarterly_All_Forms_FY18Q1.pdf

 

Also, the Case Inquiry date is now up to October 17th, in theory this means they believe they should have all cases prior to this date completed. So... to finish November there'd be about 6 weeks left to go in a perfect world.  If they are closing about 200 cases a day, in 6 weeks that,s about 6,000 cases. The remainder of October (1700ish) November (2900ish), and some oddballs from month's past and the start of December (the other 1,400).

 

Maybe I'm just babbling and making up, but I like to at least attempt to make sense of the known data... and I'd estimate almost all of us should have our approvals in 6 weeks at the latest; and 50% or more of us have it by the end of the month or the first week of June.

 

And for you December filers reading, I estimate they will start December processing no earlier than June 2nd, but most likely closer to June 12th. I don't know jack though, it's just a wild guess.

       

[BJ & Christine 1,392]

When it hits the later time frame for a case date, that's when uscis suspects they have only finished 93% of the cases to that point. Which leaves 7% that reach the "out of normal processing time" frame.

[Jen_1987 72]

Hi there, not sure this helps but I've been following this blog and she also filed I-129F in November, and got approved on May 12th. Her NOA1 date is Nov 7th. Sending positive vibes   

Edited May 15, 2018 by Jen_1987

[pinkkk 76]

i wish we get approved this week and nvc will just take 14 days 😭😭i noticed april approvals took 3 weeks to 1 month to get their nvc case number .187 days waiting now 🙁

Edited May 15, 2018 by Cathphil

[Emm2018 81]

A case 2 spots above my WAC number just got an rfe. Can i assume theyll touch mine soon? 😒

[K1visaHopeful 2,799]

Has anyone seen (or created) the next step forum for May NOA2 Approvals waiting for NVC case numbers?

I swore I saw one but now I can't find it...

[Dave_and_Jessa 212]

Just checked the new site.  We got approved yesterday!!!!

 

I'm a multiple filer too, so for others out there there is hope!!

Edited May 15, 2018 by Dave_and_Jessa