Fewest Jobless Claims Since 1973 Show Firm U.S. Job Market

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

30 minutes ago, bcking said:

You must not listen to our Dear President very much.

 

He was very critical of typical unemployment rates, claiming the "real number" is much higher.

 

In that case - the data in this article is fake. The real unemployment rate has skyrocketed since Trump became President. I heard it's almost 60 percent!!!

 

Trump didn't need evidence for his claims, so surely I don't.

 

I really hope our unemployment rate comes down. 60 percent is just hard in everyone.

The definition of unemployed was changed under the Obama administration, which falsely lowered the rate of unemployment.  That came not from Trump, but from DOL site.  I don’t remember the exact verbiage, but I read it before.  Something to the effect that someone who was actively pursuing unemployment compensation longer than a certain period of time, and those who had quite seeking employment were no longer counted as unemployed.  

 

However, that really only applies to those using government facilities to search for a job.  Something I did once, but will never do again.  They are mostly a waste of time, but necessary if one hopes to collect unemployment.  What is NOT captured is all the people who are actively seeking jobs on their own time.  So yes, the unemployment numbers do not reflect the actual truth.  It was true before Trump ever became president, and I am sure it continues today.  Until/unless the definition changes to reflect actual people unemployed, unemployment will most likely always be higher than published.  I am sure it is a difficult statistic, at best, to capture.

[bcking 3,157]

19 minutes ago, IDWAF said:

The definition of unemployed was changed under the Obama administration, which falsely lowered the rate of unemployment.  That came not from Trump, but from DOL site.  I don’t remember the exact verbiage, but I read it before.  Something to the effect that someone who was actively pursuing unemployment compensation longer than a certain period of time, and those who had quite seeking employment were no longer counted as unemployed.  

 

However, that really only applies to those using government facilities to search for a job.  Something I did once, but will never do again.  They are mostly a waste of time, but necessary if one hopes to collect unemployment.  What is NOT captured is all the people who are actively seeking jobs on their own time.  So yes, the unemployment numbers do not reflect the actual truth.  It was true before Trump ever became president, and I am sure it continues today.  Until/unless the definition changes to reflect actual people unemployed, unemployment will most likely always be higher than published.  I am sure it is a difficult statistic, at best, to capture.

I agree.

 

My point was at least I felt that Trump used that to bash the unemployment statistics during his campaign. Even if the real number is higher, these numbers may be the best we have and likely follow a similar trend (if these go down, the real number goes down).

 

Now he's more than happy to use the same statistics he once bashed to show how great he is doing as President, ignoring or not mentioning his previous "real numbers" that could be much worse.

 

Seems a little hypocritical to me. By his prior argument during the campaign, couldn't these statistics be down while the "real numbers" haven't changed? Maybe the real unemployment rate has gotten worse under Trump? If it's a mystical number we can't measure and we're okay with a man (Trump) making up, how do we know the real rate isn't now higher than before?

[OriZ 3,157]

1 hour ago, bcking said:

I agree.

 

My point was at least I felt that Trump used that to bash the unemployment statistics during his campaign. Even if the real number is higher, these numbers may be the best we have and likely follow a similar trend (if these go down, the real number goes down).

 

Indeed, they follow the same trends and you can see all of them here:

 

http://www.macrotrends.net/1377/u6-unemployment-rate

 

There's also "shadowstats" where according to them unemployment is at  21.9% which still isn't as high as Trump has claimed(I believe he said 45% or so)

 

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts

[spookyturtle 9,465]

7 hours ago, OriZ said:

Indeed, they follow the same trends and you can see all of them here:

 

http://www.macrotrends.net/1377/u6-unemployment-rate

 

There's also "shadowstats" where according to them unemployment is at  21.9% which still isn't as high as Trump has claimed(I believe he said 45% or so)

 

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts

Not the case here in MA. Help wanted signs everywhere. 

[OriZ 3,157]

1 hour ago, spookyturtle said:

Not the case here in MA. Help wanted signs everywhere. 

I believe that's a NE thing. Help wanted everywhere but mostly service sector low paying in VT. Anyway I find this all to be very entertaining...it's like watching a train wreck in slow motion where only few know the wreck's about to happen.

[Cyberfx1024 7,980]

1 hour ago, OriZ said:

I believe that's a NE thing. Help wanted everywhere but mostly service sector low paying in VT. Anyway I find this all to be very entertaining...it's like watching a train wreck in slow motion where only few know the wreck's about to happen.

Seriously like I was saying the other day with my co-workers when we were talking about the stock market. We all know and feel that something is coming but we are going to ride it until it starts to turn bad then cash our 401k to the safer funds. I am in higher risk funds now and making bank but we all agree the the market is overextended.

Edited October 22, 2017 by cyberfx1024

[OriZ 3,157]

1 hour ago, cyberfx1024 said:

Seriously like I was saying the other day with my co-workers when we were talking about the stock market. We all know and feel that something is coming but we are going to ride it until it starts to turn bad then cash our 401k to the safer funds. I am in higher risk funds now and making bank but we all agree the the market is overextended.

Overextended is an understatement. Btw feelings are nice, especially when they're in line with data, but I would normally not just go by feelings, although as I said in this case I do believe you are correct, but I base it on many metrics and a century of data. The market is very forgiving for those who wait till after things go bad, but it can only be forgiving for so long.

[Amica Nostra 4,803]

1 hour ago, cyberfx1024 said:

Seriously like I was saying the other day with my co-workers when we were talking about the stock market. We all know and feel that something is coming but we are going to ride it until it starts to turn bad then cash our 401k to the safer funds. I am in higher risk funds now and making bank but we all agree the the market is overextended.

When you say "cash in" you mean move to a more conservative fund inside the 401k right?  Taking funds out can have huge tax consequences.

[OriZ 3,157]

2 hours ago, cyberfx1024 said:

Seriously like I was saying the other day with my co-workers when we were talking about the stock market. We all know and feel that something is coming but we are going to ride it until it starts to turn bad then cash our 401k to the safer funds. I am in higher risk funds now and making bank but we all agree the the market is overextended.

Hey, btw, you all set for the forks?

[spookyturtle 9,465]

11 hours ago, OriZ said:

I believe that's a NE thing. Help wanted everywhere but mostly service sector low paying in VT. Anyway I find this all to be very entertaining...it's like watching a train wreck in slow motion where only few know the wreck's about to happen.

There are plenty of good job openings here in the construction business. Far above minimum wage. 

[spookyturtle 9,465]

8 hours ago, OriZ said:

Overextended is an understatement. Btw feelings are nice, especially when they're in line with data, but I would normally not just go by feelings, although as I said in this case I do believe you are correct, but I base it on many metrics and a century of data. The market is very forgiving for those who wait till after things go bad, but it can only be forgiving for so long.

You should have invested in Apple several years back. 

[Cyberfx1024 7,980]

13 hours ago, Il Mango Dulce said:

When you say "cash in" you mean move to a more conservative fund inside the 401k right?  Taking funds out can have huge tax consequences.

No, I ain't going to withdraw anything but move everything over to a more conservative fund. 

[Cyberfx1024 7,980]

13 hours ago, OriZ said:

Hey, btw, you all set for the forks?

Yeah I am set up for the fork. What sucks is my Alts are almost all down right now. But I am ready and I am hoping that after the fork everything will even out some.

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

I have some forks.  Spoons, too.  Can I play?

[X Factor 1,112]

As crazy as this market is it can go up for a few more years. We have not seen a parabolic phase as yet when the man on the street start to speculate like in 2000. I remember my brother wanting to take out a home equity loan and invest in Cisco stock when it was about $80 per share. Right now he is very skeptical of the markets.