October 2017 I-129 K-1 filers

[John & Rose 7,239]

11 minutes ago, Daniel P said:

 

IMHO John is being overly pessimistic saying NOA2 will take an average of 240 days, assuming the situation doesn't change significantly until then. We must consider all approvals when calculating that average, not only those cases taking longer. Right now, the average is probably around 200 days.

 

At the same time, Tpienkowski approach is maybe overly optimistic because, though possible, that will probably happen only to a few lucky ones, again, assuming the situation doesn't change significantly in the months to come.

 

Conclusion? I'd say something in between those two.

That is fair.  I admit that 240 is on the high end but people are hitting that now.  I, along with about 100 other June 6ers are at 225.  There are still over 2000 June filers waiting.  I know 7 months and 11 days isn't quite 8 months but it is where the June 6ers are at right now.  Our 8 months will be day 245.  We are only 20 days away and according to USCIS, my case has not been assigned to an adjudicator yet.  It can be 10 working days once it is assigned.  So deep down we are only talking about 5 or 6 days difference.  These days go so much quicker than we realize.

Edited January 17, 2018 by John & Rose

[Tpienkowski 210]

2 minutes ago, John & Rose said:

That is fair.  I admit that 240 is on the high end but people are hitting that now.  I, along with about 100 other June 6ers are at 225.  There are still over 2000 June filers waiting.  I know 7 months and 11 days isn't quite 8 months but it is where the June 6ers are at right now.  Our 8 months will be day 245.  We are only 20 days away and according to USCIS, my case has not been assigned to an adjudicator yet.  It can be 10 working days once it is assigned.  

I mean there are some July 12ths that had been showed up on the scans and we know atleast one July 5th got noa2, so that put their wait at just 6 months

[John & Rose 7,239]

Just now, Tpienkowski said:

I mean there are some July 12ths that had been showed up on the scans and we know atleast one July 5th got noa2, so that put their wait at just 6 months

Even a July 13 has been approved.  Basing conclusions on a single July approval while ignoring 2000 Juners waiting may be skewing in the opposite direction.  When 50% of July filers are approved we will see where we are.  Right now I know of a lot of May and June filers who approaching or past 240.  If I get assigned today and it takes the normal 10 working days for the adjudicator to get through his files I will be at day 239 if I am his last file.  If I get assigned tomorrow I, and all other June 6 filers who haven't been approved, will be at day 240.

[Daniel P 2,022]

13 minutes ago, John & Rose said:

That is fair.  I admit that 240 is on the high end but people are hitting that now.  I, along with about 100 other June 6ers are at 225.  There are still over 2000 June filers waiting.  I know 7 months and 11 days isn't quite 8 months but it is where the June 6ers are at right now.  Our 8 months will be day 245.  We are only 20 days away and according to USCIS, my case has not been assigned to an adjudicator yet.  It can be 10 working days once it is assigned.  So deep down we are only talking about 5 or 6 days difference.  These days go so much quicker than we realize.

I understand what you're saying, but it's clear that those cases from June 6th got stuck for some unfortunate (and still unknown) reason and clearly don't represent the majority. Also some July cases have been approved recently, putting them in 6 months, and they don't represent the majority either.

[Tpienkowski 210]

13 minutes ago, John & Rose said:

Even a July 13 has been approved.  Basing conclusions on a single July approval while ignoring 2000 Juners waiting may be skewing in the opposite direction.  When 50% of July filers are approved we will see where we are.  Right now I know of a lot of May and June filers who approaching or past 240.  If I get assigned today and it takes the normal 10 working days for the adjudicator to get through his files I will be at day 239 if I am his last file.  If I get assigned tomorrow I, and all other June 6 filers who haven't been approved, will be at day 240.

It’s a shame of how many people from previous months haven’t been approved yet but we have to stay positive, but you have to acknowledge how far they’re getting through July. The June 6ers and others are suffering unfortunately, but they’re moving forward & your day will come to. We just want to have the same positivity because there isn’t a reason known why cases got stuck. We just have to hope they keep moving at the pace they’re at and everything works out

[John & Rose 7,239]

10 minutes ago, Tpienkowski said:

It’s a shame of how many people from previous months haven’t been approved yet but we have to stay positive, but you have to acknowledge how far they’re getting through July. The June 6ers and others are suffering unfortunately, but they’re moving forward & your day will come to. We just want to have the same positivity because there isn’t a reason known why cases got stuck. We just have to hope they keep moving at the pace they’re at and everything works out

July has 15 approvals so far.  There are 3797 filers.  June has 946 approvals out of 4042 total filers.  There are also 60 withdrawals and 287 rejected petitions in June.  There are 2103 listed as "received".

Edited January 17, 2018 by John & Rose

[L and E 305]

Wish we could know why those June apps got stuck.. its driving me mad I can't even imagine how those people who are stuck feel. Positive thing is, they're right on the edge and Im sure news is coming soon. Trying to figure out how they do things over there is messing with my OCD brain, I want to put everything into a little box and be able to set it aside and move on... like ok June is DONE lets focus on the next group... Clearly USCIS isn't concerned about our mental health 

[Tpienkowski 210]

27 minutes ago, John & Rose said:

July has 15 approvals so far.  There are 3797 filers.  June has 946 approvals out of 4042 total filers.  There are also 60 withdrawals and 287 rejected petitions in June.  There are 2103 listed as "received".

15 is better than none & it’s better to look on the positives. They aren’t updating online and not everyone has a VJ account so for all we know there could be plenty of approvals waiting in mailboxes or on there way to delievery

[John & Rose 7,239]

11 minutes ago, Tpienkowski said:

15 is better than none & it’s better to look on the positives. They aren’t updating online and not everyone has a VJ account so for all we know there could be plenty of approvals waiting in mailboxes or on there way to delievery

So we should ignore the April filers that took 280 days.  Positive is good but realistic is better.  We were "positive" that June would all be approved by day 160.  I have been waiting ever since.  If I knew it was 220+ I would have had much less stress these past months. The average right now since the re-prioritization is closer to 250 days.  With May and early June filers out there that keeps growing.  

 

If you have been following you would have seen this identical discussion in November.  I dont want that to happen again.

 

I really hope that you are right and things speed up.  I have been here for 7 months and I know what we are seeing.  Things are not getting better.

 

The November argument was about the people who were "sure" the approvals would all be done by day 160.  I never felt that way and I was leaning towards 180.  I was the bad pessimist for not just agreeing with them.  As it turns out it really didn't matter as we all are passing 200.  It was entertaining there for a while.

Edited January 17, 2018 by John & Rose

[Tpienkowski 210]

7 minutes ago, John & Rose said:

So we should ignore the April filers that took 280 days.  Positive is good but realistic is better.  We were "positive" that June would all be approved by day 160.  I have been waiting ever since.  If I knew it was 220+ I would have had much less stress these past months. The average right now since the re-prioritization is closer to 250 days.  With May and early June filers out there that keeps growing.  

 

If you have been following you would have seen this identical discussion in November.  I dont want that to happen again.

 

I really hope that you are right and things speed up.  I have been here for 7 months and I know what we are seeing.  Things are not getting better.

No one is saying that you should ignore anything, including the approved cases. We are all waiting and anticipating. You and I debating on times isn’t helping anything. All I’m saying is positivity never killed, pessimism only causes more stress. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst. October people still have the chance to think they’ll be lucky with the process 

[John & Rose 7,239]

6 minutes ago, Tpienkowski said:

No one is saying that you should ignore anything, including the approved cases. We are all waiting and anticipating. You and I debating on times isn’t helping anything. All I’m saying is positivity never killed, pessimism only causes more stress. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst. October people still have the chance to think they’ll be lucky with the process 

What we learned in November that reality causes less stress.  I am not a pessimist.  I am a realist.  You can say 200 but over 1000 of us in June are already passed that.  Optimism is good.  I feel great that my current VJ timeline shows me approved by December 24.  Over optimism causes stress.  200, 210, 220 will be seen.  Probably 230 and 240 too.  I would rather know the truth than stress everyday because the optimistic estimate is passed.  Go back and read that thread.  

 

We should all be optimistic but that optimism has to be based in reality.  

 

We are in an 11 to 12 month process.  I pray that this speeds up but we have learned that unrealistic optimism adds to the stress more than a realistic timeframe.

Edited January 17, 2018 by John & Rose

[Tpienkowski 210]

Just now, John & Rose said:

What we learned in November that reality causes less stress.  I am not a pessimist.  I am a realist.  You can say 200 but over 1000 of us in June are already passed that.  Optimism is good.  I feel great that my current VJ timeline shows me approved by December 24.  Over optimism causes stress.  200, 210, 220 will be seen.  Probably 230 and 240 too.  I would rather know the truth than stress everyday because the optimistic estimate is passed.  Go back and read that thread.  

 

We should all be optimistic but that optimism has to be based in reality.  

July was 6 months ago, some people are still on track, some people aren’t. That’s reality and that’s what my optimism is based on. I hope you get noa2 soon. 

[John & Rose 7,239]

1 minute ago, Tpienkowski said:

July was 6 months ago, some people are still on track, some people aren’t. That’s reality and that’s what my optimism is based on. I hope you get noa2 soon. 

You do realize that a September was approved too, right?  Actually 2 Octobers also.

 

That is how you want to base your estimate than you are already approved, just like those 15 in July.  Dont worry about the 200 in May or the 2100 in June.  

Edited January 17, 2018 by John & Rose

[Tpienkowski 210]

Just now, John & Rose said:

You do realize that a September was approved too, right?

Yes, but I know military personnel that are about to be deployed get expedited. I’m keeping that balance of optimism and realism 

[John & Rose 7,239]

5 minutes ago, Tpienkowski said:

Yes, but I know military personnel that are about to be deployed get expedited. I’m keeping that balance of optimism and realism 

Yes.  How many of the July filers were expedited.  I know some of them were.  It doesn't matter.  This is going to be a long and stressful process and going from past experience, a majority of filers will see approvals beyond day 200.  That is a fact.

 

I just ask that we are not overly optimistic about the estimates.  That optimism causes so much pain later.  We have had couples break up because of the stress.  It was stress caused by them not having realistic expectations of this journey.

Edited January 17, 2018 by John & Rose