October 2017 I-129 K-1 filers

[Jeffreyyu 303]

12 hours ago, Naes said:

https://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/law-and-policy/statistics/non-immigrant-visas.html 

Thanks much!! Good info it shouldn't be too hard to get a interview date not much people apply for k1 visa In ja 

[ChuAni 1,191]

6 hours ago, Brittani said:

Happy Thanksgiving here from the U.S. (Georgia) to all my fellow October filers or anyone who is on this thread. I'm thankful that this process has been started and here's HOPING it speeds up once the new year rolls around!

 

 

Hi! 

Happy Thanksgiving from Nigeria! 

Remain Blessed!!!💖💖

[ChuAni 1,191]

6 hours ago, Westo said:

Happy Thanksgiving from the UK 

Here's to us all spending next year's celebrations with our loved ones 

AMEN!!!!

[Naes 12,205]

16 minutes ago, Jeffreyyu said:

Thanks much!! Good info it shouldn't be too hard to get a interview date not much people apply for k1 visa In ja 

Hopefully it does not mean too many rejected but less applications. 🤞

[Jeffreyyu 303]

12 hours ago, Naes said:

https://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/law-and-policy/statistics/non-immigrant-visas.html 

Thanks much!! Good info it shouldn't be too hard to get a interview date not much people apply for k1 visa In ja 

[Daniel P 2,022]

So... this is the distribution and the Gauss curve for the number of days between received and approved cases, for the month of May 2017 (as to 11/20/2017). I left out seven cases that seemed to be expedites. Additionally, I only considered received cases, meaning I also left out some cases that had already been touched, like Date of Birth or Name updated cases. The remaining cases (and big majority) used for this calculations made a total of 1522.

 

Those 1522 cases gave a mean of 169.95 days from Received to Approval date, with a stardard deviation of 9.46 days.

 

That curve below is actually very useful to get some interesting probabilities. If we assumed that June is going to follow a not very different pattern than the previous month, we could say that, for example:

• The probability for a June filer to be approved in less than 160 days is only 14.65%.
• That the probability for a June filer to be approved between 160 and 180 days is 70.95%.
• That the probability for a June filer to be approved in more than 170 days is (an astonishing) 49.78%.
• Or that the probability for a June filer to be approved in more than 180 days is (a still astonishing) 29.67%.

 

Hopefully the processing times will lower in the next months and we'll see how that curve will slowly be moving to the left and those percentages lower or raise in our favor. Fingers crossed!! 

 

[Daniel P 2,022]

I made a little mistake on the last probability, by the way. That one was meant for more than 175 days. For more than 180 days is 14.40%. Sorry.

[Brittani 484]

8 minutes ago, Daniel P said:

I made a little mistake on the last probability, by the way. That one was meant for more than 175 days. For more than 180 days is 14.40%. Sorry.

I'm so hoping it picks up so we can have better statistics.

[Daniel P 2,022]

10 hours ago, Brittani said:

I'm so hoping it picks up so we can have better statistics.

So am I!

[Daniel P 2,022]

Hi guys. After my last post, I started to think about a way to compare different months when it comes to length of time from Received to Approved, to try to identify a possible tendency over the months.

 

The first problem was to actually get the data from April, that had to be old enough so that the cases in it hadn't been touched yet. Unfortunately the oldest raw data @Naes had wasn't as old, but she did a wonderful job modifying it so that it showed the most probable received dates for all already touched cases. Believe me when I say that wasn't a job of a few minutes, so I can't thank her enough!

 

After that, the next problem was to find a way to compare April and May, something that initially wasn't possible since the "conditions" for both months weren't the same. Why? Simply because April had had "more time" to accumulate cases with longer approval times (long cases that May will also eventually have, but it's just to soon for them to show up).

 

So I thought, ok, in order to be able to compare them let's give them the same amount of time. From the last day that May received cases (05/31/17) up to the day of the last scan (11/20/17), a number of 173 days passed. Since the last day of April to receive cases was 04/28/17, for this month I only considered cases approved within the next 173 days (up to 10/18/17), just like May.

 

In other words, what I'm trying to do here is to compare what happened within the next 173 days after that last day of both, April and May, received cases.

 

And the graph below is what I came up with.

 

In that time, with a total of 1412 and 1522 approved cases respectively:

 

• April had a global mean of 153.12 days from Received to Approval date, with a standard deviation of 15.08 days.
• May had a global mean of 169.95 days from Received to Approval date, with a standard deviation of 9.46 days.

 

As you guys can see, the tendency clearly worsened from April to May, with less disperse lengths of time for the latter, which is good because that means more people get their cases approved in "around" the same time, but with higher lenghts of time for those cases to actually get approved.

 

I'm hoping to see how that tendency improves from June on, we'll just have to wait a little for the next report 

 

 

[Christy&J 837]

I so appreciate people like Daniel and Naes and other that put some effort to help us to have better overview with what's going us here.

 

Thank you guys...you are awesome! 

[Daniel P 2,022]

3 minutes ago, Christy&J said:

I so appreciate people like Daniel and Naes and other that put some effort to help us to have better overview with what's going us here.

 

Thank you guys...you are awesome! 

I appreciate your appreciation 

[Christy&J 837]

Guys ! currently I feel like it's been forever ! Though I am only on 57 days, but after reading July and August filers...made me feel more meh than I was...

 

they are still waiting  

 

USCIS why won't you hurry and work on our petition harder !!! we paid you !!!

[Naes 12,205]

2 minutes ago, Christy&J said:

Guys ! currently I feel like it's been forever ! Though I am only on 57 days, but after reading July and August filers...made me feel more meh than I was...

 

they are still waiting  

 

USCIS why won't you hurry and work on our petition harder !!! we paid you !!!

Please only read the one with approvals for your sanity... 

 

sad faces scares away noa2s.... 

 

sad face=sad you=sadder fiancé/fiancée

 

we'll get through it! We will all get through it!!

[Christy&J 837]

6 minutes ago, Naes said:

Please only read the one with approvals for your sanity... 

 

sad faces scares away noa2s.... 

 

sad face=sad you=sadder fiancé/fiancée

 

we'll get through it! We will all get through it!!

hahaha thank you for your positive thought... lol yes I've been through the forum to make me feel better but then I read people that even june filers are still waiting...  xD

 

so yep ! hopefully this torture is over soon.