I129f September 2017 filers

[Naes 12,205]

Hi guys 

 

I'll be just putting them here too in case anyone wants to see the progress.

 

Daily Update: 12/4

(and last weeks results)

 

	April	May	June	July	Aug	Sept	Oct	Total
Last Week's Total	115	470	214	4	1	2	2	808
2017/12/4	21	66	83					170

 

[BK&MC 103]

2 hours ago, Swissmiss82 said:

just because I go crazy today, even if no action is going on in our month,

as I was curious about something I started playing around with the list that @Naes sent to me....

 

Below the date with how many files per day:

01.09.	145
05.09.	403
06.09.	111
07.09.	125
08.09.	89
11.09.	354
12.09.	88
13.09.	121
14.09.	129
15.09.	166
18.09.	354
19.09.	150
20.09.	106
21.09.	135
22.09.	185
25.09.	344
26.09.	123
27.09.	88
28.09.	128
29.09.	150
30.09.	1
updated Oct	68
updated Nov	35

 

Updated Oct / Nov are the cases that had updates with Names, Case received at local office and other mixed status.

 

Also the overview of untouched / touched cases:

 

Case Received	3218
Cases w/updates	106
Case Approved	3
RFE	2
Rejections TOTAL	269

 

Cases w/updates means they had updated a name or such... so I threw them all in the same category.

Case Approved / RFE are most likely the expedited ones, so don't get too excited

 

anyways, everybody stay positive, enjoy your lunch (at least whoever is in my time zone hihi)

That 403 is nuts. As a 05.09 filer, it makes me nervous to think how they’re gonna tackle that. 

[Swissmiss82 1,620]

6 minutes ago, LizM said:

But it’s not really 400 in one day though, is it? All the big batches seem to have been accumulated over a few days of no received cases at all, probably holidays. 

correct, there was a holiday that's why a 3 day weekend and 400 cases. and the big numbers 300/340 are mondays after weekends.

 

it's just crazy how many cases each day! 

[dejene 37]

8 hours ago, Naes said:

That 18th is going to eat my 15th.....

Yeah I'm right there on the 15th with you 

[zamardii12 25]

Hi everyone. First time poster. I suspect I will be coming to this forum often, but I have been lurking these forums for a while because I am in the process of getting my fiance here as well. But there is a lot of stuff I have been reading here that is confusing me. Are you guys somehow seeing how many cases they are processing and when the estimated timed responses will be? I got the "received" paper (I-797C) on September 25th and what sources are you all looking at to track progress? I am totally out of the loop and I have scoured these forums but don't see any explanations. I have just been waiting to hear from my lawyer. 

 

Thanks! 

[Naes 12,205]

23 minutes ago, LizM said:

Well @Naes can probably answer better than I can, but we have some members on here who run scans of cases that are updated online (some cases are not updated online, for some reason). Not sure exactly how it's done, but the data is coming from the USCIS. There's no way to know exactly how long the September cases will be from NoA1 to Noa2, but based on April, May and June processing times, it's at least possible to figure out some trends. By the way, welcome!  

@zamardii12

 

Hi yes as @LizM says.

 

just download from your App Store a case tracker app, these comes if you just write it in the search section.

 

we have whatever the info is public so nothing fancier but we try to make it easy for everyone to read and see. 

 

My personal suggestion though use the uscis website as initial info. That is the real info and no app no scan no nothing basically will show any update unless uscis changes the status online  

 

what we do about seeing k1 cases is basically what these apps do but doing it in a computer in a bigger scale so we can share the info with anyone. In the apps too you can search for any case. But uscis blocks the IP if more than 5000 cases are checked so that's why we are only checking a month at a time (they usually have an approximate number of 4000)

 

good luck and enjoy the wait (I'm a sarcastic person I can't stop it 😁😁😁)

[Thina 13]

Hi September filler! My fiancé got noa1 at 6th September. How long have we get noa2? Good luck

[Thina 13]

Hi September filler!

[Swissmiss82 1,620]

the waiting time starting from NOA1 is currently about 180-200 days.

So the estimate is probably first week of March to get your NOA2.

if you fill your timeline on here, you will get an estimate with updates based on approvals that USCIS is working on

[Thina 13]

11 hours ago, Swissmiss82 said:

the waiting time starting from NOA1 is currently about 180-200 days.

So the estimate is probably first week of March to get your NOA2.

if you fill your timeline on here, you will get an estimate with updates based on approvals that USCIS is working on

 

[Thina 13]

Just now, Thina said:

 

Thank you, I hope it faster because I want to live my love

[Naes 12,205]

1 minute ago, LizM said:

Hey @Naes. I have a question and I'm too lazy to look around the forums. But could you tell me on average how many cases per day the USCIS have to process to keep the current waiting times? I just want to know an approximate figure to get better use of the daily approval updates  

I'm on it. 

 

The problem is;

there are 3 points

 

1) touching the cases: when the status change from anything else but received.

 Because if they get to around 1000 received cases left, they finally start the next month and this is important to guess when it will start (slowly but start)

 

2) real approval: their reports talk about approval and denials, all the rest is pending so them keeping cases as pending rfe or other won't really resolve their load 

 

3) non updated cases: march April and May has an extreme amount of non updated online cases.

 I know this not just by people in May saying it because I saw 1300 untouched and about a 1000 pending looking cases in march - which is not and cannot be correct info- our march thread would be going crazy and rfes should be responded within 60 days- as none of this happened I'm 100% sure about them not being properly updated. Hence all I can do when calculating is estimating around a 90 percent of it as approved or somehow done.

 

 

I am on it as I'm calculating with these points in consideration.

i just finished march too so hopefully I'll give you guys a detailed report on what I'm thinking by the weekend  

[Naes 12,205]

Hi everyone,

 

By now, you know I am crazy right?

Ok so that's established... I checked March hehe....hehe... distraction from the most needed fire....

It is getting extremely close to my wedding venue... (I feel so bad for even thinking like this )

 

These are the concluded cases - only concluded cases- that will appear as either denial or approval on USCIS reports for this quarter.

This data has March to November mostly up to date.

 

	March	April	May	June	July	Aug	Sept	Oct	Nov	Total
Oct W1	74	163	111	7	8	7	16	31		417
Oct W2	58	109	191	4	2	2		62		428
Oct W3	70	95	161	1	1			42		370
Oct W4	60	84	239	2		1		47		433
Nov W1	63	105	345	12	9	11	3	56	8	612
Nov W2	23	59	223	8	3		3	1	41	361
Nov W3	29	83	278	20	2	4	1		26	443
Nov W4	17	74	172	69	1					333
Nov W5	31	63	187	115	2					398
Dec W1	4	35	93	105						237
Total	429	870	2000	343	28	25	23	239	75	4032

 

As it shows around 4000. I want to add something to that number.

I've checked all of March and April.

 

And this is how it looks (I have also checked February but not relevant to our numbers at the moment.)

 

	March	April	Total
Received	2105	830	2935
Pending	859	593	1452
Approved	1019	1898	2917
Excluded	679	636	1315
Total	4662	3957	8619

 

Apparently, especially in March the tracker wasn't working properly,  and I believe we can easily say the same for April & a 20% of May. 

However, as most of March was done by October, I'll only give a 500 cases concluded in this Q for them, and about a 1000 for April.

I believe we can also easily say a 500 cases in May goes into the same category.

 

So I'll be generous about denials and Make this a total of 3000 cases not updated on the tracker.

which makes a 4000(from above)+3000=7000

 

As a low expected number per quarter would be around 10000 cases. we have 3000 to go.

 

This is a close touch to the end of June to July.

I hope they won't suddenly slow down again, 

however at this point I am expecting for June to be touched every where by Christmas (just like May a few weeks ago, touched everywhere but a few Juners waiting around)

 

And for July to start slowly please understand this really means slowly.

Just like May and June it will start with small amount of 30-40s would be my estimation.

 

I really hope things can pick up further, because at this moment I believe VJ timelines are +-a week correct.

 

But hey I am still hoping for a Valentine day approval----romantic in me never dies and I like to live dangerously

 

*Notice for new comers:

(I'm sorry if anyone is new and never heard or read about the past calculations and discussions has been made here.)

 However, 2 important things to know would be

  1) They don't update every status correctly, we have seen many approvals without an update on the USCIS case tracker

  2) The new month tends to start when "case received" status is around 1000s 

[Fippsie 164]

So.. about 3 months to go.. I am currently visiting my love in the US and I have to leave January 11th, because there is no later flight. Even though my Visa doesn't end before early February.  This means at least 2 months separated.. My heart hurts...

[BK&MC 103]

10 hours ago, Naes said:

Hi everyone,

 

By now, you know I am crazy right?

Ok so that's established... I checked March hehe....hehe... distraction from the most needed fire....

It is getting extremely close to my wedding venue... (I feel so bad for even thinking like this )

 

These are the concluded cases - only concluded cases- that will appear as either denial or approval on USCIS reports for this quarter.

This data has March to November mostly up to date.

 

	March	April	May	June	July	Aug	Sept	Oct	Nov	Total
Oct W1	74	163	111	7	8	7	16	31		417
Oct W2	58	109	191	4	2	2		62		428
Oct W3	70	95	161	1	1			42		370
Oct W4	60	84	239	2		1		47		433
Nov W1	63	105	345	12	9	11	3	56	8	612
Nov W2	23	59	223	8	3		3	1	41	361
Nov W3	29	83	278	20	2	4	1		26	443
Nov W4	17	74	172	69	1					333
Nov W5	31	63	187	115	2					398
Dec W1	4	35	93	105						237
Total	429	870	2000	343	28	25	23	239	75	4032

 

As it shows around 4000. I want to add something to that number.

I've checked all of March and April.

 

And this is how it looks (I have also checked February but not relevant to our numbers at the moment.)

 

	March	April	Total
Received	2105	830	2935
Pending	859	593	1452
Approved	1019	1898	2917
Excluded	679	636	1315
Total	4662	3957	8619

 

Apparently, especially in March the tracker wasn't working properly,  and I believe we can easily say the same for April & a 20% of May. 

However, as most of March was done by October, I'll only give a 500 cases concluded in this Q for them, and about a 1000 for April.

I believe we can also easily say a 500 cases in May goes into the same category.

 

So I'll be generous about denials and Make this a total of 3000 cases not updated on the tracker.

which makes a 4000(from above)+3000=7000

 

As a low expected number per quarter would be around 10000 cases. we have 3000 to go.

 

This is a close touch to the end of June to July.

I hope they won't suddenly slow down again, 

however at this point I am expecting for June to be touched every where by Christmas (just like May a few weeks ago, touched everywhere but a few Juners waiting around)

 

And for July to start slowly please understand this really means slowly.

Just like May and June it will start with small amount of 30-40s would be my estimation.

 

I really hope things can pick up further, because at this moment I believe VJ timelines are +-a week correct.

 

But hey I am still hoping for a Valentine day approval----romantic in me never dies and I like to live dangerously

 

*Notice for new comers:

(I'm sorry if anyone is new and never heard or read about the past calculations and discussions has been made here.)

 However, 2 important things to know would be

  1) They don't update every status correctly, we have seen many approvals without an update on the USCIS case tracker

  2) The new month tends to start when "case received" status is around 1000s 

Hi Naes, first off, I hope all is alright with your fiance and family in Cali. I can't imagine the worry, the stress and the anxiety it must be putting you through.

 

Second, thank you for all the numbers and analysis!

 

They look like they are picking up speed for June so that's a good sign.

You mentioned they'll be really slow again for July, but do you mean when they first start on July, or July in general?

By when do you suppose they'll start on July?

 

I was hopeful to get my NOA2 in February but my timeline on VJ got pushed back day by day 

Was from Feb 23, and now it's March 2. SO everyday, my hope for Feb NOA2 get squashed a little lol.