I129f September 2017 filers

[Daniel P 2,022]

10 hours ago, Naes said:

there is 2500+ still pending with rfe or case received.

but we also have lots of cases that are not updated yes it received noa2.

 

10 hours ago, Naes said:

they are not updating cases online properly, we have lots without update and we are only the 8% of the total here

 

Actually, if those not updated approved cases are equally distributed following the same pattern as the showed in the graph (which I don't know, but I can't think of a reason why they wouldn't), even if they could be included in the calculations the results would be the same.

 

Also, it's true that we're only about the 8% of the total here, but those results include all cases, not only the ones from the people here. And following with what I just said, even though if only that 8% had been processed, it would still be a good sample that would still give, I think, a very similar result. Of course, the biggest the sample, the most accurate the results!

Edited November 24, 2017 by Daniel P

[Naes 12,205]

4 hours ago, Daniel P said:

 

 

Actually, if those not updated approved cases are equally distributed following the same pattern as the showed in the graph (which I don't know, but I can't think of a reason why they wouldn't), even if they could be included in the calculations the results would be the same.

 

Also, it's true that we're only about the 8% of the total here, but those results include all cases, not only the ones from the people here. And following with what I just said, even though if only that 8% had been processed, it would still be a good sample that would still give, I think, a very similar result. Of course, the biggest the sample, the most accurate the results!

(I'm still sleeping and will be back to that perfect sleep in a second so bear with me)

 

it is not distributed equally. 

I know how to this works (your estimation -sorry I don't know most of these terms in English seriously in japan everything is a whole new weird world magic), and I am all for it as you'd realize but we for example have full days probably never updated. Especially start of the month and days we almost only saw hardcopies of, days abnormalities consistently occur etc.

 

it doesn't follow the same pattern because it is not about a pattern. It is for example about how one of the adjudicators work- for example who doesn't update-. Which day he/she came to work to send these out or update... etc. etc.

 

so I know this is the best we can get right now. But there is a very possible way to 15% out of this whole pattern.

 

[Naes 12,205]

10 minutes ago, Naes said:

(I'm still sleeping and will be back to that perfect sleep in a second so bear with me)

 

it is not distributed equally. 

I know how to this works (your estimation -sorry I don't know most of these terms in English seriously in japan everything is a whole new weird world magic), and I am all for it as you'd realize but we for example have full days probably never updated. Especially start of the month and days we almost only saw hardcopies of, days abnormalities consistently occur etc.

 

it doesn't follow the same pattern because it is not about a pattern. It is for example about how one of the adjudicators work- for example who doesn't update-. Which day he/she came to work to send these out or update... etc. etc.

 

so I know this is the best we can get right now. But there is a very possible way to 15% out of this whole pattern.

 

 

 I realized this might look like I'm just pushing the idea without realization, and I don't like putting ideas like this without evidence. So I wanted to add I was social psychologist and this is one of the basics we use. I just wanted to tell I'm not just saying omg 15% that must be a lot, what I'm saying is I do think for the sample size and inconsistency it follows it may be a lot. 

 I just wanted to say I know this is the best we can have right now with what we have so I'm grateful extremely.

[AntoinetteB 165]

Quote

 

im getting so frustrated with the timeline estimation on my timeline it continues to increase from the start i was estimated at the end of February now im at the end of march ill be in april soon  

[Naes 12,205]

7 minutes ago, AntoinetteB said:

im getting so frustrated with the timeline estimation on my timeline it continues to increase from the start i was estimated at the end of February now im at the end of march ill be in april soon  

I started from January but mid march now... I still don't think it will pass April, an my estimate itself is feb for September to start.

vj estimates with what it has as today's possibilities. Hopefully Today is our worst time.

Edited November 24, 2017 by Naes

[AntoinetteB 165]

8 minutes ago, Naes said:

I started from January but mid march now... I still don't think it will pass April, an my estimate itself is feb for September to start.

vj estimates with what it has as today's possibilities. Hopefully Today is our worst time.

thank you for the bit of hope things just have to pick up I'll offer my services to help speed things along if lack of employees is the issue I've planned my weeding for the end of September next year however I'm now thinking i may need to push that out further.

[Naes 12,205]

Just now, AntoinetteB said:

thank you for the bit of hope things just have to pick up I'll offer my services to help speed things along if lack of employees is the issue I've planned my weeding for the end of September next year however I'm now thinking i may need to push that out further.

I really don't think you need to push that (mine is end of July)

we will know more about how they're thinking by the end of this year as we will have more data and their quarterly reports will be out.  let's try not to think till then.

[Daniel P 2,022]

4 hours ago, Naes said:

(I'm still sleeping and will be back to that perfect sleep in a second so bear with me)

 

it is not distributed equally. 

I know how to this works (your estimation -sorry I don't know most of these terms in English seriously in japan everything is a whole new weird world magic), and I am all for it as you'd realize but we for example have full days probably never updated. Especially start of the month and days we almost only saw hardcopies of, days abnormalities consistently occur etc.

 

it doesn't follow the same pattern because it is not about a pattern. It is for example about how one of the adjudicators work- for example who doesn't update-. Which day he/she came to work to send these out or update... etc. etc.

 

so I know this is the best we can get right now. But there is a very possible way to 15% out of this whole pattern.

 

 

Those factors never were (nor intended to be) considered in these results. Only the number of days between approved and received cases of all available cases were considered, independently of the specific day they were received, approved or worked on, and the circumstances around them.

 

When I say that the cases left out are probably equally distributed (maybe it's not the best term, sorry, English isn't my mother tongue either...) or follow the same pattern, I mean they (all the non considered cases) are as random as the considered ones (maybe they are not, it was just an assumption). Let me explain. Most non considered cases were left out simply because they weren't updated in the app, but I don't think there's a specific reason for that, and if there's one, they probably affect the same way to 150, 165 or 190 days cases. I'm not saying that the factors you mention don't affect the length of time until they are approved (sure they do!), I'm saying that I don't think there's a relationship between that length of time and the fact that they weren't updated in the app.

 

For that reason, if those non considered cases are distributed the same way (all kind of lenghts with similar weights) than the whole, their absence don't really affect these results.

 

My main intention was to see how those cases are distributed according to the length of time until they were approved, not to do any kind of estimation. If something, it might be possible to see the tendency this length of time follows over the next months comparing their results, but again, leaving out all other considerations.

 

 

[Daniel P 2,022]

Or I could just say that only people that will finally get approved AND their cases updated in the app can relate in any way to these results 

[Naes 12,205]

16 minutes ago, Daniel P said:

 

Those factors never were (nor intended to be) considered in these results. Only the number of days between approved and received cases of all available cases were considered, independently of the specific day they were received, approved or worked on, and the circumstances around them.

 

When I say that the cases left out are probably equally distributed (maybe it's not the best term, sorry, English isn't my mother tongue either...) or follow the same pattern, I mean they (all the non considered cases) are as random as the considered ones (maybe they are not, it was just an assumption). Let me explain. Most non considered cases were left out simply because they weren't updated in the app, but I don't think there's a specific reason for that, and if there's one, they probably affect the same way to 150, 165 or 190 days cases. I'm not saying that the factors you mention don't affect the length of time until they are approved (sure they do!), I'm saying that I don't think there's a relationship between that length of time and the fact that they weren't updated in the app.

 

For that reason, if those non considered cases are distributed the same way (all kind of lenghts with similar weights) than the whole, their absence don't really affect these results.

 

My main intention was to see how those cases are distributed according to the length of time until they were approved, not to do any kind of estimation. If something, it might be possible to see the tendency this length of time follows over the next months comparing their results, but again, leaving out all other considerations.

 

 

Yep, got ya! 

 

We are thinking the same just the language barrier actually.

 

i also don't think there is a relationship about the time to noa2 and them not being updated. I just think for May it would probably put a little more weight on the 170-175 day period. Because they are backdated. But it's a nice weight to consider but not like it would be a huge jump at this point cause many are already out of the curve in May.

 

 I really hope we will have a better understanding by the time they finish July cause boy we'll still have a loooong way to go after that.

 

I'm making the April raw data for you. I just want to see at least one more month of what happened. Because I know we will see the recovery points from April to May. So I hope we can also show it to people.

5 minutes ago, Daniel P said:

Or I could just say that only people that will finally get approved AND their cases updated in the app can relate in any way to these results 

This is actually very well put.

Edited November 25, 2017 by Naes

[KatziGuthmann 171]

Hello dear Septembers!

 

I'm just gonna vent a bit here. Probably just because of these long silent days off, but I'm feeling really desperate when I see all the people waiting for 180+ days, and then more then a month at NVC. Trying to figure out when I'll be able to be with my fiancée without thinking of leaving her again, and getting even more desperate. And all the people around me not approving my future marriage (same sex, intolerante family, conservative country).. Just tired of crying and constant anxiety. I know it will worth in the end, and this year is just nothing in our life, but still.

 

Sorry guys. I still hope you all have nice weekend. Sending hugs to everyone ✨

[jiuweimay 1]

5 hours ago, KatziGuthmann said:

Hello dear Septembers!

 

I'm just gonna vent a bit here. Probably just because of these long silent days off, but I'm feeling really desperate when I see all the people waiting for 180+ days, and then more then a month at NVC. Trying to figure out when I'll be able to be with my fiancée without thinking of leaving her again, and getting even more desperate. And all the people around me not approving my future marriage (same sex, intolerante family, conservative country).. Just tired of crying and constant anxiety. I know it will worth in the end, and this year is just nothing in our life, but still.

 

Sorry guys. I still hope you all have nice weekend. Sending hugs to everyone ✨

I feel you, I received the NOA1 on 9/25 so basically the end of September, and right now for CSC the wait time is 171+ with another month at nvc......My fiance and I have been separated since May this year, I also have anxiety and yes I cried alot cause I miss him so much, so hanging there you are not alone!! 

[needlesss 3]

Hi everyone! I started my k1-visa process early of September 2017 and they received it a few weeks later. It is almost the end of November now so I'm still waiting for my NOA2 which feels like forever already  Anyway wish me luck! I'm living in California, USA and my fiance is in Cambodia. We met in 2015 and I found out I was pregnant this year after visiting him in Cambodia for 3 months. My cousin who's been through all of this before and is now happily living with her foreign husband has been helping me out with the whole process so I'm sure we've done everything we were supposed to and I doubt there will be any delays or difficulties. With that being said, does anyone have an estimate month of when my fiance will interviewed? Or even an estimate month of when I might get approved?

Edited November 25, 2017 by Adeen

[Naes 12,205]

2 hours ago, needlesss said:

Hi everyone! I started my k1-visa process early of September 2017 and they received it a few weeks later. It is almost the end of November now so I'm still waiting for my NOA2 which feels like forever already  Anyway wish me luck! I'm living in California, USA and my fiance is in Cambodia. We met in 2015 and I found out I was pregnant this year after visiting him in Cambodia for 3 months. My cousin who's been through all of this before and is now happily living with her foreign husband has been helping me out with the whole process so I'm sure we've done everything we were supposed to and I doubt there will be any delays or difficulties. With that being said, does anyone have an estimate month of when my fiance will interviewed? Or even an estimate month of when I might get approved?

Congratulations about the baby.

 

Expect noa2 the earliest February and mostly march. And add another month at least for NVC and then embassy depends on the country so the earliest would be April

[needlesss 3]

45 minutes ago, Naes said:

Congratulations about the baby.

 

Expect noa2 the earliest February and mostly march. And add another month at least for NVC and then embassy depends on the country so the earliest would be April

Thank you! I was thinking March as well for the NOA2 and after that I feel like I won't have much of an issue or doubts due to me worrying mostly about the wait for approval. Once we're approved, I think everything is going to go rather smoothly.