I129f September 2017 filers

[BK&MC 103]

14 hours ago, LizM said:

I hope he can get at least some time off over the Christmas holidays to go back to TN, sounds like he needs it. I understand your pain and it's especially upsetting if you've been set on a specific timeline and then need to adjust it. In my opinion and from my experience, deciding to spend your lives together is not just something you do on a whim, it takes time to get to that point, and once you're there any additional waiting seems completely useless. Normal people just move in together, get married and are done with it. It is unfair, but I feel we have to see it as we're learning a lot about ourselves and our other halves, and maybe some day when we're arguing about the dishes we can remember these moments and remain humble because we fought more to get there in the first place. If that makes any sense.

 

Those are kind and helpful words, and they made plenty of sense.

 

You're right. Deciding to move halfway across the world is definitely not decided on a whim. It's something we have been talking about for about 2 years now. It's just there were some hindrance for us to file for a K1 during that time. And when we finally get to file for it, it's a disappointment to find that the process has turned so arduous. Guess that's where the frustration kicks in. But you're right, we have waited this long, what's a few more months in exchange for a lifetime together. I'll try to pull him through.

I got you guys to pull me thorugh 

[Swissmiss82 1,620]

6 hours ago, Naes said:

Sweetie I don't even think about it. It's an Expedite and that's it. 

This people don't update anything correctly I wouldn't be surprised if they don't write about every expedite.

 

also I saw lots of cases got expedited without history 🤷‍♀️

 

 

there goes my wednesday motivation 

[Naes 12,205]

5 minutes ago, Swissmiss82 said:

there goes my wednesday motivation 

I'm sorry sweetie but a random case in there wouldn't help us.. so motivate yourself with real movements...they're not going to suddenly jump to September...

[Swissmiss82 1,620]

1 hour ago, Naes said:

I'm sorry sweetie but a random case in there wouldn't help us.. so motivate yourself with real movements...they're not going to suddenly jump to September...

yeah I guess....

 

just frustrating cos with the usual turnaround time we'd be getting NOA2's right now...

 

anyways - hope it will be a good approval day and hope to see your updated weekly approvals with good numbers again

[dejene 37]

Hey guys, I have a random question that I will probably need experienced help with lol. Is there a way to send more information before receiving an RFE? Based on what I've read on the forums, I'm 99% sure I will receive one. I have the stuff ready, but with a good 3 months left in the process, is there a way to just get ahead of things and submit an amendment (with cover page of 'course) or are they just going to throw it away or "lose" it? Thanks!

[dejene 37]

So I finally contacted USCIS and they basically kept saying

 

And I'm sitting here thinking

 

So on to plan B! Finding the location of the CSC, sneak in in the middle of the night, find my file, and insert the documents myself! Wish me luck!!!

[BK&MC 103]

3 hours ago, dejene said:

 

So on to plan B! Finding the location of the CSC, sneak in in the middle of the night, find my file, and insert the documents myself! Wish me luck!!!

Help me look for mine as well and sneak them onto the June pile! 

[Naes 12,205]

5 hours ago, dejene said:

Hey guys, I have a random question that I will probably need experienced help with lol. Is there a way to send more information before receiving an RFE? Based on what I've read on the forums, I'm 99% sure I will receive one. I have the stuff ready, but with a good 3 months left in the process, is there a way to just get ahead of things and submit an amendment (with cover page of 'course) or are they just going to throw it away or "lose" it? Thanks!

You shouldn't send anything unless they ask you for the rfe. Get the papers ready to send, and send them right away when you get the rfe.

In the notice NOA1 it actually states not to send. and that would complicate it most likely get lost (things sometimes get lost even when they are send with the petition)

[Daniel P 2,022]

So... this is the distribution and the Gauss curve for the number of days between received and approved cases, for the month of May 2017 (as to 11/20/2017). I left out seven cases that seemed to be expedites. Additionally, I only considered received cases, meaning I also left out some cases that had already been touched, like Date of Birth or Name updated cases. The remaining cases (and big majority) used for this calculations made a total of 1522.

 

Those 1522 cases gave a mean of 169.95 days from Received to Approval date, with a stardard deviation of 9.46 days.

 

That curve below is actually very useful to get some interesting probabilities. If we assumed that June is going to follow a not very different pattern than the previous month, we could say that, for example:

• The probability for a June filer to be approved in less than 160 days is only 14.65%.
• That the probability for a June filer to be approved between 160 and 180 days is 70.95%.
• That the probability for a June filer to be approved in more than 170 days is (an astonishing) 49.78%.
• Or that the probability for a June filer to be approved in more than 180 days is (a still astonishing) 29.67%.

 

Hopefully the processing times will lower in the next months and we'll see how that curve will slowly be moving to the left and those percentages lower or raise in our favor. Fingers crossed!! 

 

 

[BK&MC 103]

48 minutes ago, Daniel P said:

So... this is the distribution and the Gauss curve for the number of days between received and approved cases, for the month of May 2017 (as to 11/20/2017). I left out seven cases that seemed to be expedites. Additionally, I only considered received cases, meaning I also left out some cases that had already been touched, like Date of Birth or Name updated cases. The remaining cases (and big majority) used for this calculations made a total of 1522.

 

Those 1522 cases gave a mean of 169.95 days from Received to Approval date, with a stardard deviation of 9.46 days.

 

That curve below is actually very useful to get some interesting probabilities. If we assumed that June is going to follow a not very different pattern than the previous month, we could say that, for example:

• The probability for a June filer to be approved in less than 160 days is only 14.65%.
• That the probability for a June filer to be approved between 160 and 180 days is 70.95%.
• That the probability for a June filer to be approved in more than 170 days is (an astonishing) 49.78%.
• Or that the probability for a June filer to be approved in more than 180 days is (a still astonishing) 29.67%.

 

Hopefully the processing times will lower in the next months and we'll see how that curve will slowly be moving to the left and those percentages lower or raise in our favor. Fingers crossed!! 

 

 

This is so useful! Thank you so much!!

[Daniel P 2,022]

9 minutes ago, BK&MC said:

This is so useful! Thank you so much!!

You're very welcome! 

[Daniel P 2,022]

I made a little mistake on the last probability, by the way. That one was meant for more than 175 days. For more than 180 days is 14.40%. Sorry.

[Naes 12,205]

6 minutes ago, LizM said:

Wow, thanks so much. This is very comprehensible and useful - just one question, I feel like I saw somewhere that the May cases totaled at somewhere around 3500. If that is correct, is it true that an entire 2000 cases are expediates/already touched/not processed at all yet and that thus the majority of the cases are actually not included in these numbers? That just doesn't seem like it could be correct... I must be wrong about the May number I guess. I'm just so sure I saw that but I can't remember where.

May is 4500 in total, 

there is 2500+ still pending with rfe or case received.

but we also have lots of cases that are not updated yes it received noa2.

 

@Daniel P would give better information on the graph.

 

but to give the assumption from April's numbers;

even though April also looks like 1500 cases are not approved yet, I believe with a big certainty that the real numbers are way lower than what it looks like.

Edited November 24, 2017 by Naes

[Naes 12,205]

2 minutes ago, LizM said:

2500+ still pending? Jesus. Thought they were much further along. I have been working too much and not keeping up with the stats on here. But okay, so this weighting that I already thought was unfortunate (too much weight on 180 (actually 175) days) will not just probably get worse but ACTUALLY REALLY get worse. Great 

 

Thanks though @Naes @Daniel P

Key points to remember:

May has a monstrous amount

they are not updating cases online properly, we have lots without update and we are only the 8% of the total here

april is probably actually 95% done 

may is likely 80% touched 

june has started and they will start a month without waiting for the old one to end. At around 3/4 of the month.

 

i hope I can give good news soon. They usually work really good after holidays so let's see what happens next week!

[Naes 12,205]

4 minutes ago, LizM said:

Yeah I saw that September is a pretty low number so at least that's good. Can't figure out why though. I would think getting engaged over the summer would be the most popular, and thus applying late summer - early fall. That's why all the May filers confuse me. But maybe I'm underestimating how quick people are at applying. (Me and my fiancé were quite slow, took us weeks, it's not easy when both of you are working full time and one is traveling as well )

Heheh same we took our time even though everything was ready (I'm a little regretting)

 

Im still waiting for February approval though.. the reasoning is stupid though; because I want mine to be after March and I never ever get the things done in the way I really want...