I129f September 2017 filers

[nullaccount234 882]

@Naes - "Platinum Lurker"  Love the titles

[Naes 12,205]

26 minutes ago, LizM said:

@Naes - "Platinum Lurker"  Love the titles

Found out we can change it 

 

wanted one more reason to laugh 

[Daniel P 2,022]

Hi guys. After my last post, I started to think about a way to compare different months when it comes to length of time from Received to Approved, to try to identify a possible tendency over the months.

 

The first problem was to actually get the data from April, that had to be old enough so that the cases in it hadn't been touched yet. Unfortunately the oldest raw data @Naes had wasn't as old, but she did a wonderful job modifying it so that it showed the most probable received dates for all already touched cases. Believe me when I say that wasn't a job of a few minutes, so I can't thank her enough!

 

After that, the next problem was to find a way to compare April and May, something that initially wasn't possible since the "conditions" for both months weren't the same. Why? Simply because April had had "more time" to accumulate cases with longer approval times (long cases that May will also eventually have, but it's just to soon for them to show up).

 

So I thought, ok, in order to be able to compare them let's give them the same amount of time. From the last day that May received cases (05/31/17) up to the day of the last scan (11/20/17), a number of 173 days passed. Since the last day of April to receive cases was 04/28/17, for this month I only considered cases approved within the next 173 days (up to 10/18/17), just like May.

 

In other words, what I'm trying to do here is to compare what happened within the next 173 days after that last day of both, April and May, received cases.

 

And the graph below is what I came up with.

 

In that time, with a total of 1412 and 1522 approved cases respectively:

 

• April had a global mean of 153.12 days from Received to Approval date, with a standard deviation of 15.08 days.
• May had a global mean of 169.95 days from Received to Approval date, with a standard deviation of 9.46 days.

 

As you guys can see, the tendency clearly worsened from April to May, with less disperse lengths of time for the latter, which is good because that means more people get their cases approved in "around" the same time, but with higher lenghts of time for those cases to actually get approved.

 

I'm hoping to see how that tendency improves from June on, we'll just have to wait a little for the next report 

 

 

[AbenaKofi 132]

On 11/25/2017 at 6:29 PM, needlesss said:

We met in 2015 and I found out I was pregnant this year after visiting him in Cambodia for 3 months.

Yay a baby! Congrats! May I ask when you’re due? Is this a race against time to see if he can be here for the birth? I’m rooting for you guys! And yay Team California 😚

[BK&MC 103]

All these news on Prince Harry and Meghan Markle, one can't help but wonder if Meghan will need to go through such a painful process such as us 

Isn't it wonderful that the Prince just got down on one knee just a few weeks back, and now she'll moved in and planning for her Spring wedding.

 

I knew it. Should have looked for a prince. Should have answered that Nigerian prince's email. 

[Naes 12,205]

21 minutes ago, BK&MC said:

All these news on Prince Harry and Meghan Markle, one can't help but wonder if Meghan will need to go through such a painful process such as us 

Isn't it wonderful that the Prince just got down on one knee just a few weeks back, and now she'll moved in and planning for her Spring wedding.

 

I knew it. Should have looked for a prince. Should have answered that Nigerian prince's email. 

😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😆😆😆😆😊😁😁

[millionaminute 43]

23 minutes ago, BK&MC said:

All these news on Prince Harry and Meghan Markle, one can't help but wonder if Meghan will need to go through such a painful process such as us 

Isn't it wonderful that the Prince just got down on one knee just a few weeks back, and now she'll moved in and planning for her Spring wedding.

 

I knew it. Should have looked for a prince. Should have answered that Nigerian prince's email. 

She is planning on British citizenship...I answered the Nigerian princes email, a Dr. Obo wowo I recall, we wanted to send me $30 milionl but I got cold feet

[BK&MC 103]

7 minutes ago, millionaminute said:

She is planning on British citizenship...I answered the Nigerian princes email, a Dr. Obo wowo I recall, we wanted to send me $30 milionl but I got cold feet

Whuuuut?! You could have been Mrs. Wowo now with $30 million dolllars!!  

 

Then your nick can be "30millionaminute".

[Swissmiss82 1,620]

3 hours ago, BK&MC said:

All these news on Prince Harry and Meghan Markle, one can't help but wonder if Meghan will need to go through such a painful process such as us 

Isn't it wonderful that the Prince just got down on one knee just a few weeks back, and now she'll moved in and planning for her Spring wedding.

 

I knew it. Should have looked for a prince. Should have answered that Nigerian prince's email. 

and now you end up in conneticut with everything lost, congrats lol

but i'm sure you made the right decision hahaha 

[BK&MC 103]

2 hours ago, Swissmiss82 said:

and now you end up in conneticut with everything lost, congrats lol

but i'm sure you made the right decision hahaha 

Alas.... Love is blind 

[Daniel P 2,022]

Hi guys one again.

 

After uncountable hours trying to figure out how to do this, and some more actually doing it, I think I finally found a way to see, day by day, how the processing time from Received to Approved evolves over the time. It's been 3 long days, but I'm on vacation this week and finally got the time to finish it.

 

Below is a graph with the average processing time of all cases received every considered day and approved within the next 173 days from each of those days.

 

Example: For all cases received the 3rd of April I calculated the average processing time of all of those cases approved within the next 173 days from that day; from 04/03/17 to 09/23/17. The same goes for all cases received the 4th of April, but only considering approvals up to 09/24/17, and so on.

 

The explanation for it being 173 days is that that is the amount of days from the last day considered 05/31/17 up to the last scan available 11/20/17.

 

It was important to do it this way because this time I'm comparing all days individually, hence they had to be considered under the same circumstances. As in my previous graphs, only updated cases could be used for these results.

 

The interpretation is pretty easy and I think it gives a very good idea of (at last!) what the tendency is being (which was the whole purpose of going into so much trouble ). I will only say that April has some pretty inconsistent days for which I don't have a clear answer (maybe they assigned each of those days' cases to faster or slower adjudicators?? I simply don't know). Also the original April file had to be manually modified (thanks again to Naes!), although I'm not sure that had anything to do with it.

 

As for May, it is much consistent and appears to show some stabilization after that nightmarish growth, which hopefully means what we all want to see, the first beams of light at the end of the tunnel.

 

 

[nullaccount234 882]

21 minutes ago, Daniel P said:

Hi guys one again.

 

After uncountable hours trying to figure out how to do this, and some more actually doing it, I think I finally found a way to see, day by day, how the processing time from Received to Approved evolves over the time. It's been 3 long days, but I'm on vacation this week and finally got the time to finish it.

 

Below is a graph with the average processing time of all cases received every considered day and approved within the next 173 days from each of those days.

 

Example: For all cases received the 3rd of April I calculated the average processing time of all of those cases approved within the next 173 days from that day; from 04/03/17 to 09/23/17. The same goes for all cases received the 4th of April, but only considering approvals up to 09/24/17, and so on.

 

The explanation for it being 173 days is that that is the amount of days from the last day considered 05/31/17 up to the last scan available 11/20/17.

 

It was important to do it this way because this time I'm comparing all days individually, hence they had to be considered under the same circumstances. As in my previous graphs, only updated cases could be used for these results.

 

The interpretation is pretty easy and I think it gives a very good idea of (at last!) what the tendency is being (which was the whole purpose of going into so much trouble ). I will only say that April has some pretty inconsistent days for which I don't have a clear answer (maybe they assigned each of those days' cases to faster or slower adjudicators?? I simply don't know). Also the original April file had to be manually modified (thanks again to Naes!), although I'm not sure that had anything to do with it.

 

As for May, it is much consistent and appears to show some stabilization after that nightmarish growth, which hopefully means what we all want to see, the first beams of light at the end of the tunnel.

 

 

You are ON VACATION and you spend your time trying to figure this out so you can help everybody on here?? You're a star! 

 

I agree it looks like it's cooling off a bit but I don't like that it's climbing up again just towards the end  But hey, it's Wednesday, which will explain any excess grumpiness on my part. I should probably get to bed

[Daniel P 2,022]

2 minutes ago, LizM said:

You are ON VACATION and you spend your time trying to figure this out so you can help everybody on here?? You're a star! 

And so I can keep my sanity, too!!

[needlesss 3]

On 11/28/2017 at 9:35 AM, AbenaKofi said:

Yay a baby! Congrats! May I ask when you’re due? Is this a race against time to see if he can be here for the birth? I’m rooting for you guys! And yay Team California 😚

Thank you! I found out I was pregnant when I was already 3 months and back in Cali so it was difficult for me to find a job being pregnant. Therefore, I decided to just wait until after I gave birth (at the end of August) to start my K1-visa journey. They received my package early September so now I am waiting for the NOA2... aka known to be the longest wait ever!!!

[AbenaKofi 132]

34 minutes ago, needlesss said:

Thank you! I found out I was pregnant when I was already 3 months and back in Cali so it was difficult for me to find a job being pregnant. Therefore, I decided to just wait until after I gave birth (at the end of August) to start my K1-visa journey. They received my package early September so now I am waiting for the NOA2... aka known to be the longest wait ever!!!

 Oh wow!  I'm also early Sept - NOA1 9/11 so hopefully we get good news at the same time  I'm sure the little one will keep you oh-so-busy during the wait!