Potentially bad news for Visa Bulletin Movement

[Michael2017 368]

I had a couple of hours free this weekend and started to read USCIS statistics.

While I could not find statistics that show I-130 petitions by exact category, the stats show data for Immediate Relatives and Other Relatives for whom I-130s have been filed.

Guessing that the distribution of petition remains approx. the same over the past year. I had to find out that in 2016, about 18% more petitions had been filed compared

to 2015 (or 2014). The VB was stable for F2A in 2016 compared to 2015, so where petitions. Chances are that e.g. F2A visas will slow down by about 20%, meaning,

I predict a fiscal year movement of only 8.5-9 months for the full year. It seems that the election year caused a large spark in petitions.

 

The numbers are as follows

 

2016 I130s

Immediate relative 632k

Total 933

 

2015 I130s

IR 541k

TT 785k

 

2014 I130s

IR 522

TT 770k

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Michael2017 368]

https://www.uscis.gov/tools/reports-studies/immigration-forms-data/data-set-form-i-130-petition-alien-relative

 

Here is the link to the data I used.

[Boiler 45,519]

That has been the general trend for many years and will likely continue unless there is Comprehensive Reform.

[Crazy Cat 41,865]

When will they have data for the 3rd qtr ready?

[cd37 229]

Change in administration has created lot of backlog in every category because lot of people applied thinking that immigration policies will change that will affect them negatively. You will see more backlog in family categories as a new bill was proposed to have point based immigration.

[Crazy Cat 41,865]

Just now, cd37 said:

Change in administration has created lot of backlog in every category because lot of people applied thinking that immigration policies will change that will affect them negatively. You will see more backlog in family categories as a new bill was proposed to have point based immigration.

but the backlog existed months before the election.

[cd37 229]

Just now, missileman said:

but the backlog existed months before the election.

I said "more backlog" 

[Crazy Cat 41,865]

8 minutes ago, cd37 said:

I said "more backlog" 

[Michael2017 368]

2 hours ago, Boiler said:

That has been the general trend for many years and will likely continue unless there is Comprehensive Reform.

 

Well, talking of F2A,2013 the VB was current. 2014 and 2015 were almost identical with good VB movement, and as we see, similar numbers.

In recent years only the election year stands out and there is no real trend at least short term. As for 2016, the later in the year, the more applications.

People realized that Trump could win, got scared, and applied more and more. This means people with PD till mid of 2016 will do better than people with PD later in 2016.

 

[Boiler 45,519]

1 minute ago, Michael2017 said:

 

Well, talking of F2A,2013 the VB was current. 2014 and 2015 were almost identical with good VB movement, and as we see, similar numbers.

In recent years only the election year stands out and there is no real trend at least short term. As for 2016, the later in the year, the more applications.

People realized that Trump could win, got scared, and applied more and more. This means people with PD till mid of 2016 will do better than people with PD later in 2016.

 

Has been that way for at least the last 4 presidents, speeds up slows down. People speculate the reasons why. The general trend is longer.

[Michael2017 368]

2 hours ago, missileman said:

When will they have data for the 3rd qtr ready?

Can be expected to be published in December. 2017 has seen a big increase in application as well. I would suggest this is the trump effect which will slow VB down even further, and slow down normal CR1 visas as well, unless they allow USCIS to hire much more staff.

 

[Michael2017 368]

2 minutes ago, Boiler said:

Has been that way for at least the last 4 presidents, speeds up slows down. People speculate the reasons why. The general trend is longer.

Ok, I checked only short term, you have checked longer term statistics most properly, so for those the general trend could be true.

More people in the country would logically mean more applications. However, the visa numbers are fixed since long term, so generally long term, the trend should be higher yes. I assume the financial crises played into the 2013 wonder of a current F2A visa bulletin. My PD is in the second half of 2016, but we were married already earlier that year. Not applying earlier seems to be a costly mistake now.

[Boiler 45,519]

When Obama was in power it was the Obama effect, Now Trump, next will be whoever is next.

[Crazy Cat 41,865]

23 minutes ago, Michael2017 said:

Can be expected to be published in December. 2017 has seen a big increase in application as well. I would suggest this is the trump effect which will slow VB down even further, and slow down normal CR1 visas as well, unless they allow USCIS to hire much more staff.

 

I want to compare 2nd and 3rd FY quarters because I was shocked that there were more than a million pending I-130s at USCIS at the end of March......unbelievably bad......and should have warranted more adjudicators in my opinion. 

[Michael2017 368]

2 minutes ago, missileman said:

I want to compare 2nd and 3rd FY quarters because I was shocked that there were more than a million pending I-130s at USCIS at the end of March......unbelievably bad......and should have warranted more adjudicators in my opinion. 

As far as I know there was an Administrative order from the white house that made sure no new staff can be hired for a period of time.