Trump has spent 22% of his presidency at a Trump golf course property and he leaves tomorrow for a 17 day vacation.

[CaliCat 3,957]

4 minutes ago, OriZ said:

Paper gains. I don't agree with everything in the article mind you, but the "wealth effect" the FED so believes in is an illusion imo. When the S&P is back at 1,300 how are the current paper gains going to help anybody? If you're retiring in 15 years and the S&P then is lower than it is now, how will that help anybody? 

 

When will the S&P be back at 1,300? Do you know the date?

[smilesammich 10,727]

ha. i'm dying over here..

 

Newsweek's new cover calls President Trump a 'Lazy Boy'

 

Edited August 4, 2017 by smilesammich

[CaliCat 3,957]

33 minutes ago, smilesammich said:

ha. i'm dying over here..

 

Newsweek's new cover calls President Trump a 'Lazy Boy'

 

 

 

Oh, you'll get snowed in for this one. 

[smilesammich 10,727]

7 minutes ago, CaliCat said:

 

 

Oh, you'll get snowed in for this one. 

oddly enough, trump supporters don't seem to have any sort of criticism of trump's record six months in office with 40 days at golf clubs and zero pieces of major legislation, they seem to be preoccupied with some symphony at ucla that some professors want to boycott and the gay agenda in preschools and making sure everyone equally appreciates skin lightening features on filter apps. it's sort of bizarre but they're a sensitive bunch so i'm glad trump supporters avoid any thread that makes dear leader appear inept, making someone cry with my cehst posts is not my intention. but the cheetos are an excellent touch.

[CaliCat 3,957]

22 minutes ago, smilesammich said:

oddly enough, trump supporters don't seem to have any sort of criticism of trump's record six months in office with 40 days at golf clubs and zero pieces of major legislation, they seem to be preoccupied with some symphony at ucla that some professors want to boycott and the gay agenda in preschools and making sure everyone equally appreciates skin lightening features on filter apps. it's sort of bizarre but they're a sensitive bunch so i'm glad trump supporters avoid any thread that makes dear leader appear inept, making someone cry with my cehst posts is not my intention. but the cheetos are an excellent touch.

 

They only have an issue with those who point out their emperor is naked, because it probably hurts them to realize he was lying to them all the time.  A buddy of mine who voted for Trump told me he feels so bad about it, he doesn't even like to talk about it anymore. We're seeing the same in many places, and here may be no exception. 

Edited August 4, 2017 by CaliCat

[Amica Nostra 4,803]

2 hours ago, CaliCat said:

 

Teddy replied. Most workers have their pension or 401K plans in the market.

liberals don't want work, they flake off and get burger flipping jobs for 15 dollars an hour and drag the economy into the mud

I am not sure who these people are with 401ks, the only good investment is real estate, 

1 hour ago, smilesammich said:

oddly enough, trump supporters don't seem to have any sort of criticism of trump's record six months in office with 40 days at golf clubs and zero pieces of major legislation, they seem to be preoccupied with some symphony at ucla that some professors want to boycott and the gay agenda in preschools and making sure everyone equally appreciates skin lightening features on filter apps. it's sort of bizarre but they're a sensitive bunch so i'm glad trump supporters avoid any thread that makes dear leader appear inept, making someone cry with my cehst posts is not my intention. but the cheetos are an excellent touch.

when I am golfing I am not tweeting

[CaliCat 3,957]

Just now, Il Mango Dulce said:

liberals don't want work, they flake off and get burger flipping jobs for 15 dollars an hour and drag the economy into the mud

I am not sure who these people are with 401ks, the only good investment is real estate, 

 

 

Bridges, I hear, are all the rage. Trump adorants are buying stock on the Brooklyn Bridge. LOL. 

[Amica Nostra 4,803]

1 minute ago, CaliCat said:

 

 

Bridges, I hear, are all the rage. Trump adorants are buying stock on the Brooklyn Bridge. LOL. 

you can say that again

1 minute ago, CaliCat said:

 

 

Bridges, I hear, are all the rage. Trump adorants are buying stock on the Brooklyn Bridge. LOL. 

 

[spookyturtle 9,466]

11 hours ago, Bill & Katya said:

So because Trump did it a broad generalization is appropriate?

Trump lives in a glass house. He shouldn't be throwing stones. 

[OriZ 3,157]

4 hours ago, Teddy B said:

That could stand for any period of time. No one really knows how this plays out in 15 years, but for the author to say this steady 6 to 7 year rise in the stock market isn't any good for most people simply isn't true.

Where I agree with the author is anybody buying now or in the last couple of years is buying at the top of a bubble, which is why it is bad. With the S&P500 price/revenue ratio last week reaching the highest level in history, outside of the single week of March 24, 2000 right before the peak of the tech bubble, and unlike 2000-2002 however, the damage to paper values over the completion of this cycle is not likely to spare many sectors, as the median valuation across individual stocks is at a record high, and far beyond the 2000 peak. Due to the offensive valuations we have a very high likelihood of zero S&P500 total returns over the coming 10-12 year horizon. It's not a prophecy, it's sound value conscious investing. That would mean that depending on the dividend yield the S&P500 could actually be quite negative. I've written quite a bit on how the FED's deranged pursuit of zero interest rates in the recent half cycle disrupted financial markets and created a de facto wealth transfer so I won't get into that again right now. It's not accurate that no one knows how this plays out. Historical evidence is out there and is clear as day. The speculation encouraged over the last several years by FED intervention can only postpone this, it can't miraculously make valuations become attractive, while avoiding severe losses at the same time. I know you and I have never seen eye to eye on this and I don't expect that to change; I just hope you keep your money safe.

 

 

 

4 hours ago, CaliCat said:

 

Teddy replied. Most workers have their pension or 401K plans in the market.

There is no evidence that the FED's creation of trillions of dollars of zero interest base money did anything to stimulate the economy in recent years, none whatsoever. The trajectory of the economy since 2009 hasn't been any better than what could have been predicted solely based on prior values of non monetary variables. The main effect of the FED was to intensify speculation by recklessly pouring fuel over a frantic, yield seeking blaze. 

The S&P 500 is now between 150% and 170% above valuation norms that have been approached or breached over the completion of every market cycle in history, including the most recent one. I fully expect a decline of around 50% from where we sit today(it was 40% a couple of years ago when I began talking about this). It's important to understand that the higher the market goes, the floor doesn't move up with it, the targets stay the same, and all that changes is the extent of loss it would take to get there.

 

It's also foolish to believe any of the market gains in recent years will have made a difference by the completion of this cycle. There's an important distinction between transient returns(advances that move beyond historically normal valuations) and durable returns(advances towards historically normal valuations) that are actually retained by investors over the complete cycle. However markets are ultimately very forgiving of early exit. The fear of missing out may be keeping investors from taking actions to bring their exposure to market risk in line with their true risk tolerance and capacity for loss, but the features that have accompanied the most extreme peaks in US stock market across history, and the losses that followed are already in place. 

 

4 hours ago, CaliCat said:

 

When will the S&P be back at 1,300? Do you know the date?

All ya gotta do is read my friend:

A specific timeline is neither possible nor relevant, nor is it necessary. What matters is - what returns should investors expect over the next 10-20 years based on current valuations, and what pain will they have to endure throughout due to steep interim losses? The timeframe is during the completion of this cycle. Valuations are not a short term tool; However they are very informative about future returns. And trust me there will be pain and lots of it. The left will blame Trump, the right will blame obstructionists for not letting him implement his policies. Both sides will be wrong. The Federal Reserve as well as other central banks around the globe hold the majority of the blame; Trump and Obama will share what's left. The latter for his policies during his two terms. Trump for his policies so far as well as the assumed policies going forward. At the end of the day however, the seeds have been sown years ago. The fundamental instabilities are already present, like open buckets of gasoline in an explosives warehouse. So called “catalysts” often become evident only after the fact, and sometimes remain obscure, as they did in 1987. But by the completion of this cycle, investors will likely relearn how erroneous and irrelevant it was to worry about “selling too early” in an extremely overvalued market. The extreme brevity of the financial memory...

 

Although I will not fault Trump for a recession, I have already made the decision I will not try to defend him either. If he's so foolishly taking credit for the headline indexes currently rising, he should own up to it when that reverses whether it's his fault or not. In a post I wrote right around election time I "advised" him to sit on his hands and just let nature take its course, that way at least he'd have someone else to blame. Lack of foresight meant he didn't listen so I guess now you reap what you sow. Because it will come, and the later into his presidency it comes, the less time he'll have to ride on a recovery, and the lower his chances for re-election will be. Sure will get interesting around here.

Edited August 4, 2017 by OriZ

[Dianalorena 1,153]

The problem isn't the fact that he is taking a vacation. I get that a job of this magnitude is incredibly stressful, particularly if you have no idea how the hell its done. I'm sure he is miserable, going on support rallies, lashing out and firing people left and right (pun intended) and trying desperately to find approval amongst all the ''hate''. Wether that hate is deserved or not, is pointless. Some of you still love him, lord knows why at this point, but it is your right, and this isn't about me saying that you shouldn't or attacking your choices.  

Having said that, Trump has been very vocal about Obama taking vacations and golfing. Calling him out often for ''not having a good work ethic'' and even saying that ''vacations aren't supposed to be taken if you love what you do and you should think like a billionaire'' blah blah. The hypocrisy is so blatant, so straightforward that I can only conclude that either he: forgets he even says/tweets stuff like that which underlines a bigger health problem, or he just assumes he is above it all including his own advice, which is equally troublesome. 

He has been digging his own grave throughout the years, one mean tweet at a time. Just add discontent and predisposition to that recipe, and voilà.