August 2017 I-129F Filers

[turkishdelight 185]

I tried to fudge together some math to estimate our final approval date. Thoughts on these methods?

Method 1: Based on historical processing times (currently 244 days for those approved in Jan,) which have risen on average about 10 days/month for the past 4 months... that would put us at 284 days total. (There are almost 4 months between May 4 filers being approved now and my Aug. 28 file date.) 
Timeline: NOA1 Aug. 24; final approval June 4th. 

 

Method 2: NOA1-NOA2 processing times are currently 191 days for June filers, which the average has risen by ~90 days in the past 8 months (11 days/mo.) That would bring the estimated average to ~213 days for NOA1-NOA2 by the time they reach August filers if the timeline keeps rising at this pace. (Worst case scenario.)

 
So if I add 213 + 20 days to NVC + 6 days at NVC + 4 days to embassy + 66 days at the embassy (Turkey)... that puts us at, 309 days. That only gives us 30 days of wiggle room before our wedding. (July 28.)

Timeline: NOA1 Aug. 24; final approval June 28 

 

I'm about 50% convinced that I need to change my wedding date; I might wait a few more weeks to decide. We only have a $700 deposit on the venue, but all of our 75+ friends and family have the date bookmarked on their calendars. We have Save the Dates designed but haven't sent them yet. 

[turkishdelight 185]

17 hours ago, kas634 said:

 

Unfortunately, that's just NOA2 and not the entire process  Do you already have deposits done on a venue and stuff?

 

Sometimes I miss the blissful ignorance days before I found VJ and thought he'd be here by March  I'm sorry about the delay it's caused for you, though.. Even if you do get approved  in time and whatnot, you can still contact your congressional representative to tell them about the process. It might make a difference, it might not..

Oh I feel like an idiot for thinking that was the whole process.  They should really specify on that page...

[Dorena27 10]

Looks like a lot of RFE's are being issued out of California processing center today. But at least we know they are processing dates seen today are May 30, June 7,June 6, June 18, and June 5.

[Kim & Zak 195]

7 hours ago, turkishdelight said:

I tried to fudge together some math to estimate our final approval date. Thoughts on these methods?

Method 1: Based on historical processing times (currently 244 days for those approved in Jan,) which have risen on average about 10 days/month for the past 4 months... that would put us at 284 days total. (There are almost 4 months between May 4 filers being approved now and my Aug. 28 file date.) 
Timeline: NOA1 Aug. 24; final approval June 4th. 

 

Method 2: NOA1-NOA2 processing times are currently 191 days for June filers, which the average has risen by ~90 days in the past 8 months (11 days/mo.) That would bring the estimated average to ~213 days for NOA1-NOA2 by the time they reach August filers if the timeline keeps rising at this pace. (Worst case scenario.)

 
So if I add 213 + 20 days to NVC + 6 days at NVC + 4 days to embassy + 66 days at the embassy (Turkey)... that puts us at, 309 days. That only gives us 30 days of wiggle room before our wedding. (July 28.)

Timeline: NOA1 Aug. 24; final approval June 28 

 

I'm about 50% convinced that I need to change my wedding date; I might wait a few more weeks to decide. We only have a $700 deposit on the venue, but all of our 75+ friends and family have the date bookmarked on their calendars. We have Save the Dates designed but haven't sent them yet. 

Awesome work! Is method 1 stating 284 days from NOA1 to POE? I hope everything works out with the wedding  

 

Edit: I think there might be more time needed for shipping to NVC? I've seen closer to 50 days, but I could be wrong, and I'm at work and have to get back on the job soon

Edited January 4, 2018 by kas634

[Naes 12,205]

9 hours ago, turkishdelight said:

I tried to fudge together some math to estimate our final approval date. Thoughts on these methods?

Method 1: Based on historical processing times (currently 244 days for those approved in Jan,) which have risen on average about 10 days/month for the past 4 months... that would put us at 284 days total. (There are almost 4 months between May 4 filers being approved now and my Aug. 28 file date.) 
Timeline: NOA1 Aug. 24; final approval June 4th. 

 

Method 2: NOA1-NOA2 processing times are currently 191 days for June filers, which the average has risen by ~90 days in the past 8 months (11 days/mo.) That would bring the estimated average to ~213 days for NOA1-NOA2 by the time they reach August filers if the timeline keeps rising at this pace. (Worst case scenario.)

 
So if I add 213 + 20 days to NVC + 6 days at NVC + 4 days to embassy + 66 days at the embassy (Turkey)... that puts us at, 309 days. That only gives us 30 days of wiggle room before our wedding. (July 28.)

Timeline: NOA1 Aug. 24; final approval June 28 

 

I'm about 50% convinced that I need to change my wedding date; I might wait a few more weeks to decide. We only have a $700 deposit on the venue, but all of our 75+ friends and family have the date bookmarked on their calendars. We have Save the Dates designed but haven't sent them yet. 

My wedding date is same as yours and I'm a September filer.

 

My plan is to wait till start of march and move accordingly  cause them going like this is plain ridiculous so I'm not believe in this deep dark scenarios yet (although it is 100% plausible 🙈

[turkishdelight 185]

51 minutes ago, Naes said:

My wedding date is same as yours and I'm a September filer.

 

My plan is to wait till start of march and move accordingly  cause them going like this is plain ridiculous so I'm not believe in this deep dark scenarios yet (although it is 100% plausible 🙈

I'm holding out hope for the both of us! I plan to do the same. I'm going to send the save the dates at the end of Jan but ask people not to book flights etc. until March-ish (by then we'll hopefully have NOA2.) Fingers crossed.

[turkishdelight 185]

2 hours ago, kas634 said:

Awesome work! Is method 1 stating 284 days from NOA1 to POE? I hope everything works out with the wedding  

 

Edit: I think there might be more time needed for shipping to NVC? I've seen closer to 50 days, but I could be wrong, and I'm at work and have to get back on the job soon

1

I was going off of this - 

I am assuming the average will go down because last year it also spiked around the holidays and decreases afterward. 

[Naes 12,205]

Just now, turkishdelight said:

I'm holding out hope for the both of us! I plan to do the same. I'm going to send the save the dates at the end of Jan but ask people not to book flights etc. until March-ish (by then we'll hopefully have NOA2.) Fingers crossed.

I'll only give heads up to the people who will have to fly around February and then send the save the dates when I decided around march. so people in Turkey can gather their info for visa applications etc. but not apply till I give them the invitations later on and don't waste any money  

[turkishdelight 185]

Just now, Naes said:

I'll only give heads up to the people who will have to fly around February and then send the save the dates when I decided around march. so people in Turkey can gather their info for visa applications etc. but not apply till I give them the invitations later on and don't waste any money  

That's a very good plan! Sadly we'll only have one person coming from Turkey.

[Naes 12,205]

13 minutes ago, turkishdelight said:

That's a very good plan! Sadly we'll only have one person coming from Turkey.

Yeah not many from my side either... too complicated and too expensive...

[Majesty 72]

23 hours ago, Dorena27 said:

Looks like a lot of RFE's are being issued out of California processing center today. But at least we know they are processing dates seen today are May 30, June 7,June 6, June 18, and June 5.

Hello. Where do you see that?

[Dorena27 10]

From the UCSIS app you can download it from the play store and it will send you instant notification as each petition is processed and the decision as well.

[Majesty 72]

Just now, Dorena27 said:

From the UCSIS app you can download it from the play store and it will send you instant notification as each petition is processed and the decision as well.

Oh wow my app doesn't do that. Which one are you using? Thanks

[Naes 12,205]

2 hours ago, Majesty said:

Oh wow my app doesn't do that. Which one are you using? Thanks

Just go to each active month, there is one person who scans the full month and will put the information for everyone to see. 

 

The last date as of yesterday was June 26th. 

 

other than that, to check the same information you can use a case tracker app, it scans 500 cases (not only I-129fs) at once to show you info.

but again this is the same info you can get from each months forum.

[Majesty 72]

8 minutes ago, Naes said:

Just go to each active month, there is one person who scans the full month and will put the information for everyone to see. 

 

The last date as of yesterday was June 26th. 

 

other than that, to check the same information you can use a case tracker app, it scans 500 cases (not only I-129fs) at once to show you info.

but again this is the same info you can get from each months forum.

Thanks for that information. June 26 wow. Were getting somewhere!