Liberal Legal Scholar Scoffs At Claims Donald Trump Jr. Guilty Of Treason

[The Nature Boy 7,659]

2 minutes ago, smilesammich said:

when it comes to constitutional scholars and prezidents - either you is or you isn't..

I don't know. Members of the MDL have been telling us Trump is the so called President for some time 

[smilesammich 10,727]

Just now, Nature Boy Flair said:

I don't know. Members of the MDL have been telling us Trump is the so called President for some time 

no borders no presidents, you know my game. trump is a con either way.

[The Nature Boy 7,659]

2 minutes ago, smilesammich said:

no borders no presidents, you know my game. trump is a con either way.

Do you know a politician that isn't 

[smilesammich 10,727]

Just now, Nature Boy Flair said:

Do you know a politician that isn't 

trump is not a politician, silly. he's a rabble rouser'n outsider, just telling it like it is!

[IAMX 3,055]

23 minutes ago, Nature Boy Flair said:

I don't know. Members of the MDL have been telling us Trump is the so called President for some time 

Still here:

 

[OriZ 3,157]

12 hours ago, cyberfx1024 said:

The thing that I understand the most and what a majority of people understand is the bottom line and how it affects their wallet. I can tell you for a fact that since Trump was voted in office back in November to now my 401K has increased by 11% and for that I am really happy. So they people trying to drum up this BS narrative doesn't mean much to people like me who are just concerned about how the economy is doing and how it affects me putting food on the table for my family. 

Oh good lord...

[OriZ 3,157]

12 hours ago, cyberfx1024 said:

No, I am thinking long term as well but I am telling you what affects me right now. How is it shortsighted if my 401k goes up, doesn't that mean I will have more money when I retire in XX amount of years? 

No, it just means you are enjoying paper gains in the second most overvalued market in history(and by many metrics the most) right now. It says absolutely nothing about the future, in fact I'm willing to bet your 401K will likely be worth much less than it currently is over the course of the next 12 years.

 

 

[IAMX 3,055]

36 minutes ago, OriZ said:

No, it just means you are enjoying paper gains in the second most overvalued market in history(and by many metrics the most) right now. It says absolutely nothing about the future, in fact I'm willing to bet your 401K will likely be worth much less than it currently is over the course of the next 12 years.

 

 

Can say the same about CalPERS for those people my age and younger unfortunate enough to work for the state and have to dish out for it. 

[OriZ 3,157]

10 minutes ago, IAMX said:

Can say the same about CalPERS for those people my age and younger unfortunate enough to work for the state and have to dish out for it. 

Anything to do with pensions is a mess...

[IAMX 3,055]

13 hours ago, OriZ said:

Anything to do with pensions is a mess...

This is why I'd push for any pension-removing system where I have complete control over my own money. 

[OriZ 3,157]

7 hours ago, IAMX said:

This is why I'd push for any pension-removing system where I have complete control over my own money. 

 

Yeah we had the conversation about SS not long ago in another thread, and like I said then I also don't think SS should be mandatory, people should be given the option to invest their own hard earned money in something that will give them a better return than what they would get with SS, if they even get a return. If some people want to use the program that's fine, but they shouldn't force everyone to. 

 

But here's the thing - and I know I sound like a broken record(this is going to be a bit of a wall of text) and I just don't care, honestly, because I truly believe that what I have to say is important, and I wholeheartedly believe that in due time it will be vindicated. And I'm confident that those who listen will reap the rewards and benefit from it, and those who are ignoring what I am saying will suffer, and well too bad so sad sucks to be them, I wouldn't wanna be in their shoes but to each their own. 

 

I don't mean to always be the party pooper, but just for good measure - almost every piece of data I am looking at is showing we are practically flirting with recession. Employment numbers are the single most LAGGING economic indicator there is, so they tell you how good it was in the past, they tell you nothing about the future. I said almost 2 years ago that I think we will enter a recession by the end of this decade, and I still firmly believe that. No, it wouldn't be Trump's fault because it was already baked in the cake during Obama; However, Trump has options to make it slightly better or much worse and so far he's done nothing that will make it better imo. Some here might dismiss it because they see me as some sort of perma-bear just because this recent speculative advance has extended way beyond what any reasonable person should expect but that couldn't be further from the truth; I was bullish between 2003-2007 and between 2009-2015. I only started shorting markets in summer 2015 right before the S&P500 dropped from the 2,100 area to the 1,800 area. It has since rebounded nicely to 2,450...but still a mere ~15% gain from the 2015 top(following a gain of 215% up to that point which I was totally on board with). Other, more broad based indexes haven't even fared nearly as well in the last couple of years, and despite the illusion given by the headline indexes one third of stocks in the market are already in a downtrend.

 

In my thread you can actually find a post I wrote in Feb of this year fully expecting the S&P500 to reach the 2500-2600 area, because just because I am generally bearish right now, doesn't mean I don't recognize good upside opportunities when I see them in the short term. I said at the time(back in 2015) that my opinion isn't time based, it's price based. Meaning, I was fully aware markets can keep going up for a year or two and gain another 10-20% before dropping to my target. My target price is ~1,300 on the S&P500, regardless of where it drops from. So whether it would have been from 2,100...or it's going to be from 2,600...doesn't matter. As long as my price is reached, I will be happy with my expectation(I won't even call it a forecast or a prediction because it really doesn't take a prophet to realize what's going on). 

 

BTW 1,300 is a complete minimal run of the mill target that doesn't even reach a 50% decline from the current price. I am fully prepared for a larger move down, but I am making a rather "safe" and conservative call as far as I'm concerned on my part. If the market does make it to 2,600 first then that would be a 50% decline, but even from the point I called it it's still a 35% drop and who wants to stick around for a 35%+ drop?. My sense is that we're getting very close to a top, probably by early next year if not sooner, but a sense is not meant as an accurate prediction. So far I have seen nothing from this market that tells me I'm even remotely wrong over the last two years, quite to the contrary. Everything I am looking at is screaming trouble so I have no reason to alter my views. This is an overvalued bubble, by some metrics the biggest in history, and like any other bubble it won't end well. If Trump gets through the next 4 years without a recession he will literally be the first ever president to do so under the same set of circumstances. I don't see it happening. Not to mention the fact data I've already shared in the past clearly shows there is no link between who is president and the return in the stock market or the state of the economy for better OR worse. In fact the strongest link is the link between the starting point of valuations when the president comes into office vs where valuations should be.

 

The problem Trump faces is the same one Bush did - he is receiving a market that is already way overvalued. Presidents that received markets that were undervalued(this includes Reagan) always did well(the chart I link to my "way overvalued" comment shows this well), but it wasn't much them as much as it was valuations driving the price. This means that just like I don't believe Obama saved the economy(that's a pretty ignorant claim if you understand markets), as a believer in the socionomic theory of finance I also don't think Trump is making it great "again". Look, it wasn't thanks to Obama, but during his term the S&P500 went up over 200% leading up to the elections. Trump and his pundits like to keep telling us how the market has "skyrocketed" since the elections when in fact it's just up 15%. Compare that to the gain under Obama...I have said it before that I think he is shooting himself in the foot by constantly taking credit for what the market is doing. When the Fit hits the Shan and rest assured it will, he won't be able to escape blame no matter how much it is actually on him or not, because if you take credit for something you can also expect to get the blame for it when it goes wrong, it's just the way it works. 

 

So anybody parading on his behalf about what markets or the economy is doing is not only setting themselves up for failure, but also backing themselves into a corner where they won't be able to defend, or find a valid excuse or reason or someone else to blame once things go wrong. It's all their doing, folks. I mean it just makes me laugh every time I hear or see them talk about it, reminds me of Obama talking about the stock market or taking credit for gas prices...it irritated me every time he said it too and I called him out on it, and they do it even more often than he did...in fact much more often, and I would be completely hypocritical to pretend it's any different. If anything it's worse, because the market did rise a whole lot more under the Obama administration. And they just got in, and it's only risen about 15%, and they won't stop talking about it..I mean literally at times it seems like they bring it up every single interview, whether it's one of his kids, him, kellyanne, commentators, every time they do so they lose points with me because what kind of retards are you trying to fool here. And he is a hypocrite because he is the one who correctly called it a bubble himself right before he got elected, but I guess going up a further 15% is now justified because the economy is just doing that much better - which come on get real folks. Give me a break. When NB posts stuff just to get under the MDL's skin, I get it, whatever but anyone who actually believes that kinda stuff it's the same thing as with Obama saving the economy, I think both sides are completely wrong and need to do some research and learn how things really work. And I'm not going to sugarcoat things just because I thought Trump would do better than Clinton. I didn't sugarcoat things for Obama and I don't sugarcoat things for anyone else...as I said before, I am data driven, I call it like I see it, I have no agenda, I don't have any narrative in support of or against somebody, and I don't post to get +1's...sometimes I'll get it from one side sometimes from the other, sometimes one side will hate my posts and sometimes the other...and I guess that just means I'm doing a good job keeping it real.

 

 

Trust me when the time comes, when I think it's time to buy, and I think the market's gone down low enough, I will be the first to start a new thread titled "TIME TO START BUYING", much like I have(elsewhere) in the past. But we're nowhere near that point, we're in the complete mirror opposite of that point. Now is the time to sell, not to buy.

 

[Dashinka 24,492]

For some reason the firm Fusion GPS keeps coming up.  This meeting is looking more and more like a set-up.

 

http://ijr.com/2017/07/920603-trump-jr-s-lawyer-drops-bombshell-nbc-news-6th-person-meeting-russian-lawyer/