July 2017 I-129F Filers

[Tracey&Terence 19]

8 minutes ago, John & Rose said:

It looks like your inquiry has been assigned a referral number.  I got that off the Case Tracker app.  Did you call then to file the inquiry?  It shows you are on day 135.  My understanding is that they won't do an inquiry until after day 182.  I'm at 176 and haven't heard anything at all.  When I try to do an inquiry they just tell me I am within the normal processing time.

I submitted an online inquiry when the site displayed 'September 1'. However, on the 24th the inquiry was completed and I received an email on the 24th saying it was within the normal processing times. Maybe the app is just super slow as the 'Alerts' tab says November 29th. I did think it was strange that it was so early. Such a tease! 

[Daniel P 2,022]

Hi guys one again.

 

After uncountable hours trying to figure out how to do this, and some more actually doing it, I think I finally found a way to see, day by day, how the processing time from Received to Approved evolves over the time. It's been 3 long days, but I'm on vacation this week and finally got the time to finish it.

 

Below is a graph with the average processing time of all cases received every considered day and approved within the next 173 days from each of those days.

 

Example: For all cases received the 3rd of April I calculated the average processing time of all of those cases approved within the next 173 days from that day; from 04/03/17 to 09/23/17. The same goes for all cases received the 4th of April, but only considering approvals up to 09/24/17, and so on.

 

The explanation for it being 173 days is that that is the amount of days from the last day considered 05/31/17 up to the last scan available 11/20/17.

 

It was important to do it this way because this time I'm comparing all days individually, hence they had to be considered under the same circumstances. As in my previous graphs, only updated cases could be used for these results.

 

The interpretation is pretty easy and I think it gives a very good idea of (at last!) what the tendency is being (which was the whole purpose of going into so much trouble ). I will only say that April has some pretty inconsistent days for which I don't have a clear answer (maybe they assigned each of those days' cases to faster or slower adjudicators?? I simply don't know). Also the original April file had to be manually modified (thanks again to Naes!), although I'm not sure that had anything to do with it.

 

As for May, it is much consistent and appears to show some stabilization after that nightmarish growth, which hopefully means what we all want to see, the first beams of light at the end of the tunnel.

 

 

[------ 281]

@Daniel P

Thanks for this really great work you did!

[JustinandMarlen 171]

3 hours ago, Jemilyn said:

Well i still believe July filers will going to have NOA2 by mid december.

 

I am not really in a hurry though because of my work i still need to teach my two new trainees before i can resign at work so last week of december for NOA2 is fine ( for us ). 

I have a huge doubts about mid of December. Not enough time to finish with June. I would like to be wrong🙄 This will be really awesome if it will be true) 

[------ 281]

14 minutes ago, JustinandMarlen said:

I have a huge doubts about mid of December. Not enough time to finish with June. I would like to be wrong🙄 This will be really awesome if it will be true) 

I agree.  They've barely even started June, it seems like.

MAY WE BOTH BE HILARIOUSLY WRONG

[Geo_nerd82 253]

1 hour ago, Daniel P said:

Hi guys one again.

 

After uncountable hours trying to figure out how to do this, and some more actually doing it, I think I finally found a way to see, day by day, how the processing time from Received to Approved evolves over the time. It's been 3 long days, but I'm on vacation this week and finally got the time to finish it.

 

Below is a graph with the average processing time of all cases received every considered day and approved within the next 173 days from each of those days.

 

Example: For all cases received the 3rd of April I calculated the average processing time of all of those cases approved within the next 173 days from that day; from 04/03/17 to 09/23/17. The same goes for all cases received the 4th of April, but only considering approvals up to 09/24/17, and so on.

 

The explanation for it being 173 days is that that is the amount of days from the last day considered 05/31/17 up to the last scan available 11/20/17.

 

It was important to do it this way because this time I'm comparing all days individually, hence they had to be considered under the same circumstances. As in my previous graphs, only updated cases could be used for these results.

 

The interpretation is pretty easy and I think it gives a very good idea of (at last!) what the tendency is being (which was the whole purpose of going into so much trouble ). I will only say that April has some pretty inconsistent days for which I don't have a clear answer (maybe they assigned each of those days' cases to faster or slower adjudicators?? I simply don't know). Also the original April file had to be manually modified (thanks again to Naes!), although I'm not sure that had anything to do with it.

 

As for May, it is much consistent and appears to show some stabilization after that nightmarish growth, which hopefully means what we all want to see, the first beams of light at the end of the tunnel.

 

 

Can you add a trendline and predict a few more steps out?

[John & Rose 7,239]

13 minutes ago, Van & Tiger said:

I agree.  They've barely even started June, it seems like.

MAY WE BOTH BE HILARIOUSLY WRONG

I believe it takes 10 to 12 days to complete a single day.  Keep an eye how they move.  I believe June 8 has already been touched.  I'm guessing June 9 and possibly June 12 will be touched this week.  Watch when the dates first get touched.  It will help you have an idea.  Once they start the 12th there are 15 days remaining in June to be processed.  Keep an eye on when the new dates start to follow it through.  It may be quicker than you think.  

[Daniel P 2,022]

Just now, Geo_nerd82 said:

Can you add a trendline and predict a few more steps out?

It's too soon for that. I need that more time goes by. Even that graph isn't still good enough because 173 days isn't enough allowed time. With more recent scans I can make it more accurate to see a more realistic tendency, but that's all.

[Jemilyn 159]

2 hours ago, JustinandMarlen said:

I have a huge doubts about mid of December. Not enough time to finish with June. I would like to be wrong🙄 This will be really awesome if it will be true) 

Well I still praying and hoping. Before we know it NOA2 will come the soonest than we thought. 

 

NOA2 christmas present will be awesome!

[Naes 12,205]

6 hours ago, Chicagoseal said:

I was sure we’d hear something by December as well, but now I’m not so sure.

December probably they'll start but a focused start in December? I don't think so.

 

first a few weeks is usually really low levels of movement 

[Kat&Joel 484]

9 hours ago, Daniel P said:

Hi guys one again.

 

After uncountable hours trying to figure out how to do this, and some more actually doing it, I think I finally found a way to see, day by day, how the processing time from Received to Approved evolves over the time. It's been 3 long days, but I'm on vacation this week and finally got the time to finish it.

 

Below is a graph with the average processing time of all cases received every considered day and approved within the next 173 days from each of those days.

 

Example: For all cases received the 3rd of April I calculated the average processing time of all of those cases approved within the next 173 days from that day; from 04/03/17 to 09/23/17. The same goes for all cases received the 4th of April, but only considering approvals up to 09/24/17, and so on.

 

The explanation for it being 173 days is that that is the amount of days from the last day considered 05/31/17 up to the last scan available 11/20/17.

 

It was important to do it this way because this time I'm comparing all days individually, hence they had to be considered under the same circumstances. As in my previous graphs, only updated cases could be used for these results.

 

The interpretation is pretty easy and I think it gives a very good idea of (at last!) what the tendency is being (which was the whole purpose of going into so much trouble ). I will only say that April has some pretty inconsistent days for which I don't have a clear answer (maybe they assigned each of those days' cases to faster or slower adjudicators?? I simply don't know). Also the original April file had to be manually modified (thanks again to Naes!), although I'm not sure that had anything to do with it.

 

As for May, it is much consistent and appears to show some stabilization after that nightmarish growth, which hopefully means what we all want to see, the first beams of light at the end of the tunnel.

 

 

A hero of our time!!  Well done!!! Thank you!!! I love your graphs.  It really helps me get a solid idea of what's happening.  Things are starting to get a little bit scary for me because we are going to be in a reaaaaally sticky situation if we don't get out of here by March.  I dunno what are back up plan is but if things don't start picking up or stabilising, I'm gonna start panicking.  I'm eager to see what the graph will look like with some additional data.  

[Kat&Joel 484]

Hold up hold up.  Does it take another 6 weeks for the NVC part after we get our NOA2?  Because that's going to completely blow everything out for us.  I don't know if we can wait that long.  We won't be able to afford to move...

[Naes 12,205]

5 minutes ago, Kat&Joel said:

Hold up hold up.  Does it take another 6 weeks for the NVC part after we get our NOA2?  Because that's going to completely blow everything out for us.  I don't know if we can wait that long.  We won't be able to afford to move...

For now. Sweetie please calm.

 

right now it is taking 4 weeks to 6 weeks for NVC for some people, please try to think the best so it can go back to their normal times.. which they'll probably do by the time of your approval. They sent some files accidentally to NRC so we believe most people are dealing with that.

 

you know all my prayers are with you but the wait is already hard, please don't make yourself more stressed.

Edited November 30, 2017 by Naes

[Murph4865 597]

4 minutes ago, Kat&Joel said:

Hold up hold up.  Does it take another 6 weeks for the NVC part after we get our NOA2?  Because that's going to completely blow everything out for us.  I don't know if we can wait that long.  We won't be able to afford to move...

NVC says up to 6 weeks could be sooner, budget yourself for moving.

[Chicagoseal 373]

44 minutes ago, Kat&Joel said:

Hold up hold up.  Does it take another 6 weeks for the NVC part after we get our NOA2?  Because that's going to completely blow everything out for us.  I don't know if we can wait that long.  We won't be able to afford to move...

YMMV depending on your embassy.