July 2017 I-129F Filers

[Naes 12,205]

7 minutes ago, Swissmiss82 said:

yeah and that's actually even worse, cos the more it gets pushed back, the more you realize it's another extra long wait!

i only joined about 45 days ago and mine got pushed back for a full entire month!

 

since i am september filer, i don't even want to picture how much longer my push back will be in the next 2 months!

I have a feeling (just a feeling)

they will be 2/4 of July with some june still on hold by the end of this quarter in December. It will push further 1 more month and come back to a little bit back from where we are...

 

but seriously don't trust me. I told my fiancé to wait till September to file when we were doing it in August "cause I don't want a too early noa in December" so who am I to even guess? And my job is to literally predict outcome and forecast from data... I'm a failure

[Swissmiss82 1,620]

1 hour ago, Naes said:

I have a feeling (just a feeling)

they will be 2/4 of July with some june still on hold by the end of this quarter in December. It will push further 1 more month and come back to a little bit back from where we are...

 

but seriously don't trust me. I told my fiancé to wait till September to file when we were doing it in August "cause I don't want a too early noa in December" so who am I to even guess? And my job is to literally predict outcome and forecast from data... I'm a failure

predicting outcome is your job? woah we are seriously one lucky bunch here to have you here hahaha

 

we also had the hope to file end of august/early sept and celebrate Xmas together... haaa! good one!

well, since this wait is absolutely ridiculous, I will still celebrate Xmas with my fiancé - visiting for 2 weeks and enjoying our 3 year anniversary at NYE together  

[Naes 12,205]

18 minutes ago, Swissmiss82 said:

predicting outcome is your job? woah we are seriously one lucky bunch here to have you here hahaha

 

we also had the hope to file end of august/early sept and celebrate Xmas together... haaa! good one!

well, since this wait is absolutely ridiculous, I will still celebrate Xmas with my fiancé - visiting for 2 weeks and enjoying our 3 year anniversary at NYE together  

Samee!! I'm going for xmas and New Years to celebrate our anniversary 

[Swissmiss82 1,620]

3 hours ago, Naes said:

Samee!! I'm going for xmas and New Years to celebrate our anniversary 

Are we luuucky or what! wohoooooooooooo

and this time I will spend 2 full weeks, this is a first! sometimes we saw each other or literally 24 hours in a city and the longest was 9 days

[Naes 12,205]

This is a repost from May to give the information to everyone!

---------------------------

Good News Everyone, I made a mistake! 

 

@June2017UKtold me there were duplicates in June. And I will input corrected numbers in this post.

However, Why does this important for May Filers?? 

Because I manually put every April and May approval of 10/24 and realized a few things.

 

1) I am 99.9% sure some of April RFE's were to gain time.

     Other than 2 of the April approvals & RFE's from yesterday was already RFE'd. 

     Some were responses BUT some were really weird. Such as the case that got RFE on 10/23 and approved on today.

     Some RFE's changed to approval without status change to "RFE received" 

2) I am certain their system is not working properly.

    We already know this by people here telling us, however, now I am certain there are way more of these cases than we thought.

3) I am guessing some new trainee or other people are at work, and their training period might have also affected April Filers.

     This also has the affect on RFE levels, they keep RFEing more than once, some of them late in the game, so I believe some RFE's are without screening the whole petition. What I read in the past was most of the time you get 1 RFE and it usually covers everything if given in 2 close timeline.

 

Now as I am going to post this in all months;

 June Filers from my estimate, depending on things picking up to 700+ per week, your cases should start in 2-3 weeks.

 Yes it is longer than expected. However, this week and next week supposed to be May's peak time.

 

 July Filers should have a rather easy process however we cannot predict the effect of holidays.

 Although there may be some case workers coming back from holidays with bunch of status updates (all fingers are crossed ladies and gentlemen)

 

 Now the numbers;

   Virgin cases (As I'll be calling received cases from now on, cause why not? ) of April is going down slowly, 

   However, RFE's are moving way faster. But May has the weekly 70%, which is good for May filers, as most will finish eventually but awful for rest of us, for now.

 

  

 

So when did the April started to pick up? Because It was really hard for me to believe it took this long for them.

 And obviously this is way more fun than what I am supposed to be doing at work (Let's thank to the 16 hour time difference that I am awake and my fiance is not...) So I did this 

 

 

It's ok... I'm known to be crazy.. My future mother in law is as crazy so they accepted me extremely easily...

Sooo I also did this cause I wanted to see a possible peak point! (by then I was hoping I had a predictive analysis software on my PC... but they don't let me use my work PC )

 

 

So Everyone let's gather around and whichever power you believe in start doing your thing!

Cause for your sake and ours and all the future K1s.. and probably your AOS to GC.

 We need 700s and then some (at least a few) 1000s...

 

 (Have I mentioned I used to work as a fortune teller in a Turkish Coffee shop when I was in high school? Yeah nah, we say don't believe in it so you won't get hurt; but listen to it so you will have hope)

     

Now the links (UPDATED)

  I did check all the links, and the data. However, mistakes happen.

 If you have any concern or can't find your number, or seen duplicates, please let me know!

 

May

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B0aCNV0zY3I7VjUxUGJCZlJYVDA

June

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B0aCNV0zY3I7Y0dUU2szSVV6UUU

July

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B0aCNV0zY3I7SGphWmI4blc4ZFU

August

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B0aCNV0zY3I7RFlBekpGYUExLWM

September

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B0aCNV0zY3I7UkpONjltVzI0bGs

[Naes 12,205]

Explanation of graphs and Status for overall July petitions:

 

 

Approved
Your Current Status: Case Was Approved	8
Pending (Case Received - Untouched)
Your Current Status: Case Was Received	3321
Pending (RFE, Updates etc.)
Your Current Status: Date of Birth Was Updated	13
Your Current Status: Name Was Updated	35
Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed	5
Your Current Status: Response To USCIS' Request For Evidence Was Received	1
Excluded
Your Current Status: Case Closed Benefit Received By Other Means	2
Your Current Status: Case Rejected Because I Sent An Incorrect Fee	106
Your Current Status: Case Rejected Because The Version Of The Form I Sent Is No Longer Accepted	165
Your Current Status: Case Rejected For Form Not Signed And Incorrect Form Version	3
Your Current Status: Case Rejected For Incorrect Fee And Form Not Signed	7
Your Current Status: Case Rejected For Incorrect Fee And Incorrect Form Version	1
Your Current Status: Case Rejected For Incorrect Fee, Payment Not Signed And Incorrect Form Version	3
Your Current Status: Case Was Rejected Because I Did Not Sign My Form	23
Your Current Status: Case Was Rejected Because It Was Improperly Filed	29
Your Current Status: Case Was Transferred And A New Office Has Jurisdiction	4
Your Current Status: Decision Notice Mailed	3
Your Current Status: Document Was Mailed	18
Your Current Status: Document Was Returned To USCIS	33
Your Current Status: Withdrawal Acknowledgement Notice Was Sent	16
TOTAL	3796

[Daniel P 2,022]

23 hours ago, trames87 said:

A copy/paste form @Naes post from May. It wouldn't let me share  the link for some reason...

 

"Some people couldn't see the graphs because - including my iphone- couldn't open them;

So I am reposting... as we cannot edit here....

----------------------

Here are the total numbers uptil september (sorry because I'm september I just put it together)

 

* (Received,RFE sent&received, name&date updates)

 

Here's how much they are approving weekly starting from September...(Includes the cases of April-June)

 

 

Here are the links to files of May-September

 

May

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B0aCNV0zY3I7MmFZZmI5MXQyakE

June

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B0aCNV0zY3I7T19yd3hNRTdOYk0

July

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B0aCNV0zY3I7bkdET1NUendsUHc

August

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B0aCNV0zY3I7SWRnOXlqVS1DS0U

September

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B0aCNV0zY3I7c0hsaW9FMlVNVnc"

Could you please tell me where I can check this information myself? It's very interesting!

[trames87 227]

9 hours ago, Daniel P said:

Could you please tell me where I can check this information myself? It's very interesting!

This information comes from scans that @Naes and @Shoegum do on a daily basis. It comes from the USCIS website. They've just done the work and have filtered out all the other applications and focused just on the I-129fs. 

[Naes 12,205]

9 hours ago, Daniel P said:

Could you please tell me where I can check this information myself? It's very interesting!

Exactly as @trames87 said.

 

it is the same information on the official website and tracking apps. We just filtered k1s and you can open all the data on those raw files that I posted the links! 

Any new theory and analysis appreciated!

 

Edited October 26, 2017 by Naes

[Daniel P 2,022]

58 minutes ago, trames87 said:

This information comes from scans that @Naes and @Shoegum do on a daily basis. It comes from the USCIS website. They've just done the work and have filtered out all the other applications and focused just on the I-129fs. 

Thanks for the information!

[Daniel P 2,022]

49 minutes ago, Naes said:

Exactly as @trames87 said.

 

it is the same information on the official website and tracking apps. We just filtered k1s and you can open all the data on those raw files that I posted the links! 

Any new theory and analysis appreciated!

 

Thanks! Those graphs are really informative. Is there a particular place where you share them (I looked on your profile and didn't find anything). It would be nice to know exactly where to look to check all the new "data study" you make. If I think of any new theory or analysis I'll let you know! 

[Naes 12,205]

3 minutes ago, Daniel P said:

Thanks! Those graphs are really informative. Is there a particular place where you share them (I looked on your profile and didn't find anything). It would be nice to know exactly where to look to check all the new "data study" you make. If I think of any new theory or analysis I'll let you know! 

I share the raw data. And share in all months posts up to September when I have new findings. Like that post with the graphs. And I'm trying to renew especially the numbers and those weekly movements every week (but I just started this cause I just got April data.)

[Daniel P 2,022]

2 minutes ago, Naes said:

I share the raw data. And share in all months posts up to September when I have new findings. Like that post with the graphs. And I'm trying to renew especially the numbers and those weekly movements every week (but I just started this cause I just got April data.)

Perfect, thank you.

[Chicagoseal 373]

On 10/24/2017 at 11:17 PM, Naes said:

I have a feeling (just a feeling)

they will be 2/4 of July with some june still on hold by the end of this quarter in December. It will push further 1 more month and come back to a little bit back from where we are...

 

 

18 hours ago, Naes said:

 

 July Filers should have a rather easy process however we cannot predict the effect of holidays.

 Although there may be some case workers coming back from holidays with bunch of status updates (all fingers are crossed ladies and gentlemen)

 

 

I hope you’re right. God bless your soul, as your analytics are very helpful.

[Kat&Joel 484]

I'm still really hoping for a December NAO2.  That would be REALLY REALLY nice!