July 2017 I-129F Filers

[------ 281]

16 minutes ago, Daniel P said:

Actually reality is much better since there's more approved cases in total, hence higher %. As for average, I'd say it wouldn't vary that much even if all approved cases were present.

I do understand that reality is better, but is it "much" better?  Is there any data out there to suggest the degree of difference between what we are able to pull from USCIS and reality?  I wish I had some statistician training, because I think looking at, say, a past month (May or June), tallying approvals, cross-referencing those approvals against what USCIS' online data shows, and extrapolating the information we know against what we infer would be really interesting and useful.  Then we would have an idea of whether reality is a little or a lot better than what we're able to see from USCIS' online updates.

For my part, I'm going to quietly hope that those approval percentage numbers you posted are on the order of 25+% too low.

[Daniel P 2,022]

12 minutes ago, Van & Tiger said:

I do understand that reality is better, but is it "much" better?  Is there any data out there to suggest the degree of difference between what we are able to pull from USCIS and reality?  I wish I had some statistician training, because I think looking at, say, a past month (May or June), tallying approvals, cross-referencing those approvals against what USCIS' online data shows, and extrapolating the information we know against what we infer would be really interesting and useful.  Then we would have an idea of whether reality is a little or a lot better than what we're able to see from USCIS' online updates.

For my part, I'm going to quietly hope that those approval percentage numbers you posted are on the order of 25+% too low.

I don't know what the real difference is, that "much" better might just be on the optimistic side. The only thing I can say with certainty is that those percentages are higher in reality. Maybe @Naes have some idea of the approximate amount of non updated cases and can extrapolate from there.

Edited January 21, 2018 by Daniel P

[Naes 12,205]

@Daniel P @Van & Tiger

 

hi guys;

 

as it is a freakishly cold morning (I have ear muffs on and not even embarrassed at this point) and as my fingers are frozen I'll try to explain it simply. But ask anything if needed is past.

 

it is waaaaaay better than it looks.

depending on; 

1) even when all vj members got their case closed, the graph on vj timeline shows about 80% (not everyone updates their timelines. And May at the moment is 70%s (also remember as this year every application went longer more people got to this website but did not continue like us.)

 

2) February, march, April also looks just like that.. for example march looks like it has 2400 virgins! Do you think that's possible with no one almost left to whining?

 

3) may had monstrous  amount as we all know (4400+ ) so normally in every month 1-2 people end up left behind. In mays case I believe statistically (not that I enjoy it) it looks normal with 5ish people (this in vj members)

 

4) there is a person from January (last January) still waiting for rfe response...there's an April who just (Friday) got their approval- and these are again only vj cases. so unfortunately once again even though my heart goes out to May especially because I know them now. they are less of a number obviously. This happens, hope it doesn't happen to most people is all I can wish. Because I don't want to wait for 1 January case to get solved so they could move on, that wouldn't be realistic. (Even though it would be ideal)

 

There are lots of reasons for this happening as we talk before about it too. Background checks to if a name hits on your search to papers and also depending on adjudicators speed and work style etc etc.

 

and lastly, the classic vj numbering would be, active members of vj is approximately 3-5% of all so for May there would be 15-25 people( ok let's make it bigger 100 people) are waiting untouched.

and to me personally this seems close after looking at all other months.

 

disclaimer: personal opinion

 

and I have no clue why my font changed in the middle but my fingers don't feel anything so that's that

Edited January 22, 2018 by Naes

[OCWESLEY17 1]

Hey everyone, all the best with approvals this week comming, this probably gets asked all the time but where can i find the nvc excel sheet to fill out and have a look on the times its taking etc? 

 

Thanks heaps

[Naes 12,205]

7 minutes ago, OCWESLEY17 said:

Hey everyone, all the best with approvals this week comming, this probably gets asked all the time but where can i find the nvc excel sheet to fill out and have a look on the times its taking etc? 

 

Thanks heaps

I-129F NOA2 to NVC Receive Time Tracker - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1k57PdywNRpUqytomJxMzz6_7DsMqpi52DgnaYt9FyC8/edit?usp=sharing

[TransAtlanticLove 31]

Yeah we're on 205 days now. All we can do is wait and think positively. 🤞

[Naes 12,205]

Hey guys

 

I just wanted to send my best wishes as for me it is already a Monday, and it is a Monday here in japan without uscis.. so I like Tuesdays better in my case 🤣

 

It is snowing here so it is also a crazy day!

 

just wanted to add that yes july started later than even June but (we don't have enough data prove yet) but it also looks like it started stronger than June's first 2 weeks! June didn't see barely reach 100s in the first two weeks!

 

lets still keep it realistic but hopes up! Mouths also upwards: this is how it goes  

 

good luck in a full week (and well I don't want to be this evil but department of labor is kind of closed because of shutdown so let's hope uscis will be coming our way to fiancé and spouse visas!) 

[SAD2017 40]

1 hour ago, Naes said:

Hey guys

 

I just wanted to send my best wishes as for me it is already a Monday, and it is a Monday here in japan without uscis.. so I like Tuesdays better in my case 🤣

 

It is snowing here so it is also a crazy day!

 

just wanted to add that yes july started later than even June but (we don't have enough data prove yet) but it also looks like it started stronger than June's first 2 weeks! June didn't see barely reach 100s in the first two weeks!

 

lets still keep it realistic but hopes up! Mouths also upwards: this is how it goes  

 

good luck in a full week (and well I don't want to be this evil but department of labor is kind of closed because of shutdown so let's hope uscis will be coming our way to fiancé and spouse visas!) 

Hello,Naes.  It's Monday for me too. And it's -40 by Celsius 😊 so I guess we are winter ppl. Going by bus to another city about like 6 hours. Hope it won't stop somewhere🤣 Please tell me how USCIS and department of labor are actually connected? I mean what this shutdown has to do with USCIS? Thought USCIS is not affected by this shutdown. 

[Naes 12,205]

4 minutes ago, SAD2017 said:

Hello,Naes.  It's Monday for me too. And it's -40 by Celsius 😊 so I guess we are winter ppl. Going by bus to another city about like 6 hours. Hope it won't stop somewhere🤣 Please tell me how USCIS and department of labor are actually connected? I mean what this shutdown has to do with USCIS? Thought USCIS is not affected by this shutdown. 

Uscis is not affected but visas related to labor is, because they need their approval from department of labor

 

 

and my tears goes out to you for -40!

 

the worst I ever had was -25! And there was no food home. I seriously debated on going hungry or going out to buy something and freeze myself (food won btw)

Edited January 22, 2018 by Naes

[SAD2017 40]

5 minutes ago, Naes said:

Uscis is not affected but visas related to labor is, because they need their approval from department of labor

 

 

and my tears goes out to you for -40!

 

the worst I ever had was -25! And there was no food home. I seriously debated on going hungry or going out to buy something and freeze myself (food won btw)

😂 hahaha that's very difficult choice really. Especially if someone smart stays without glucose for brain. 

What I'm thinking is maby there is some person here who can just hack system? I mean statistics is very useful tool but legal if you understand what I'm saying😂

[Naes 12,205]

7 minutes ago, SAD2017 said:

😂 hahaha that's very difficult choice really. Especially if someone smart stays without glucose for brain. 

What I'm thinking is maby there is some person here who can just hack system? I mean statistics is very useful tool but legal if you understand what I'm saying😂

Well also with uscis involved I would expect a month of delay in the hacking process 🤣😂😂😂

Edited January 22, 2018 by Naes

[SAD2017 40]

2 minutes ago, Naes said:

Well also with uscis involved I would expect a month of delay in the process 🤣😂😂😂

😂😂😂 ah ... yeah maby that's just because they are using iron or boiler instead of PC. Which guarantees perfect protection😊

[Naes 12,205]

1 minute ago, SAD2017 said:

😂😂😂 ah ... yeah maby that's just because they are using iron or boiler instead of PC. Which guarantees perfect protection😊

Whenever I think of uscis I imagine those old big white (got yellowish through the time) screens and some floppy disks involved🤣

[SAD2017 40]

1 minute ago, Naes said:

Whenever I think of uscis I imagine those old big white (got yellowish through the time) screens and some floppy disks involved🤣

Yeah just some kind of time machine. Guess soon we will receive our NOA 2 by dove mail. 🤣

[ThaiJenny 25]

7 hours ago, Jeff_9802 said:

When my fiance and I applied back in July, I thought there was a chance we would be approved by the end of 2017, which would have been 5 months.  Now it looks more and more like it will be February.  We are late July (the 25th).  In fact, today is 180 days according to the app.

Same date here and still waiting, this site make me feel better...THANKS!!!! (181 days now)