July 2017 I-129F Filers

[Justmel 273]

Yesterday a lady I was talking to said "Can't you find a guy that's closer?" Nope they all didn't want me  (sarcasm btw)

After 4 years together, a marriage proposal, this long hard wait for visa.. I think I'm pretty committed to this guy.

Edited January 21, 2018 by Justmel

[Naes 12,205]

8 minutes ago, Justmel said:

Yesterday a lady I was talking to said "Can't you find a guy that's closer?" Nope they all didn't want me  (sarcasm btw)

After 4 years together, a marriage proposal, this long hard wait for visa.. I think I'm pretty committed to this guy.

No words...(to the lady)

 

i'd probably have the biggest eye roll...

[amaraimee 109]

20 minutes ago, Justmel said:

Yesterday a lady I was talking to said "Can't you find a guy that's closer?" Nope they all didn't want me  (sarcasm btw)

After 4 years together, a marriage proposal, this long hard wait for visa.. I think I'm pretty committed to this guy.

That’s my biggest pet peeve 🙄

[P&R2017 409]

49 minutes ago, Justmel said:

Yesterday a lady I was talking to said "Can't you find a guy that's closer?" Nope they all didn't want me  (sarcasm btw)

After 4 years together, a marriage proposal, this long hard wait for visa.. I think I'm pretty committed to this guy.

My answer to this lady... 

We don't find love... Love find us!

and it doesn't have an adress or nationality... 

Edited January 21, 2018 by P&R2017

[------ 281]

1 hour ago, Justmel said:

Yesterday a lady I was talking to said "Can't you find a guy that's closer?" Nope they all didn't want me  (sarcasm btw)

After 4 years together, a marriage proposal, this long hard wait for visa.. I think I'm pretty committed to this guy.

I was single for six years after a devastating breakup and went on eighty gazillion dates before Tiger and I met in person and realized we had feelings for each other.  (We'd been online friends since 2004.)

I just look at it like...the pickings are so bad here on Long Island that I had to go to the other side of the planet to meet a guy who was worth my time and love!    Nobody can accuse me of not having given the local lads a chance, lol.

We don't choose who we fall in love with -- it just happens!

[Daniel P 2,022]

Update of the graphs comparing May and June regarding the length of time from Received to Approved one month later (as to 01/20/2018), this time including July under the same conditions.

 

As a reminder, in the graphs below I try to compare what happened within the next 190 days after that last day of May, June and July 14th (last day with approvals) received cases. In order to see them clearer I put them together in pairs.

 

In that time, with a total of 1877, 818 and 243 approved cases (after removing some outliers) respectively:

 

• May had a global mean of 175.25 days from Received to Approval date, with a standard deviation of 14.06 days.
• June had a global mean of 186.05 days from Received to Approval date, with a standard deviation of 9.16 days.
• July had a global mean of 193.91 days from Received to Approval date, with a standard deviation of 3.28 days.

 

Even if it doesn't look very good (way less approvals in the same period of time for July and also starting from 185+ days) just remember that, because of the holidays, they haven't worked the same number of days, and more importantly, haven't been very consistent updating approvals, which is why these results only apply to the information it comes from, the unreliable information updated by USCIS.

 

If they keep the rate of approvals seen in the last days, I believe we'll start seeing a clear improvement in the next one or two months. Let's hope!

 

 

[JSCGPV 1,903]

@Daniel P

 

It's pretty sad to say, but anything under 200 I would take and be super happy at this point!

[Daniel P 2,022]

2 minutes ago, JSCGPV said:

@Daniel P

 

It's pretty sad to say, but anything under 200 I would take and be super happy at this point!

I know, after how May and June went on it's just too soon to see any big improvement...

[Jeff_9802 121]

When my fiance and I applied back in July, I thought there was a chance we would be approved by the end of 2017, which would have been 5 months.  Now it looks more and more like it will be February.  We are late July (the 25th).  In fact, today is 180 days according to the app.

[JSCGPV 1,903]

9 minutes ago, Jeff_9802 said:

When my fiance and I applied back in July, I thought there was a chance we would be approved by the end of 2017, which would have been 5 months.  Now it looks more and more like it will be February.  We are late July (the 25th).  In fact, today is 180 days according to the app.

I hear ya. When I applied I honestly thought a possible POE in December or Early January, boy was I way off. I never dreamed it might be close to a year for the whole thing. I have said from the start that  I'll take the wait if everything goes smooth, and no denials or RFE's. Of course when I said that I had no idea it would really be this long of a wait.

[Daniel P 2,022]

Lastly, the trend line for the average processing time of all cases received every considered day and approved within the next 204 days, as to 01/20/2018.

 

This time I have added some extra data in case you're interested (number of approved cases, number of received cases and percentage of approved cases (out of received)). As before, note that only updated cases could be considered.

 

As expected it's still too soon for a downward trend, but hopefully we'll start seeing some change by next month!

 

 

 

 

[------ 281]

10 minutes ago, Daniel P said:

Lastly, the trend line for the average processing time of all cases received every considered day and approved within the next 204 days, as to 01/20/2018.

 

This time I have added some extra data in case you're interested (number of approved cases, number of received cases and percentage of approved cases (out of received)). As before, note that only updated cases could be considered.

 

As expected it's still too soon for a downward trend, but hopefully we'll start seeing some change by next month!

Okay, I understand that not all cases that have received approvals are updated online, so the dataset you're pulling from is inherently at least somewhat worse than reality.

That said, even mentally accounting for this fact, I find these numbers appalling.  As happy as I am that they're finally moving on to July, they honestly have no business doing so when well more than half the dates in May -- May! -- are far below even 50% approved.  Who's steering this thing?!

 

@Daniel P, as well as our other forum superstars @Naes and @JSCGPV, thank you once again for all that you do for our little community.  We are all so, so grateful!  

[Daniel P 2,022]

19 minutes ago, Van & Tiger said:

Okay, I understand that not all cases that have received approvals are updated online, so the dataset you're pulling from is inherently at least somewhat worse than reality.

That said, even mentally accounting for this fact, I find these numbers appalling.  As happy as I am that they're finally moving on to July, they honestly have no business doing so when well more than half the dates in May -- May! -- are far below even 50% approved.  Who's steering this thing?!

 

@Daniel P, as well as our other forum superstars @Naes and @JSCGPV, thank you once again for all that you do for our little community.  We are all so, so grateful!  

Actually reality is much better since there's more approved cases in total, hence higher %. As for average, I'd say it wouldn't vary that much even if all approved cases were present.

[------ 281]

16 minutes ago, Daniel P said:

Actually reality is much better since there's more approved cases in total, hence higher %. As for average, I'd say it wouldn't vary that much even if all approved cases were present.

I do understand that reality is better, but is it "much" better?  Is there any data out there to suggest the degree of difference between what we are able to pull from USCIS and reality?  I wish I had some statistician training, because I think looking at, say, a past month (May or June), tallying approvals, cross-referencing those approvals against what USCIS' online data shows, and extrapolating the information we know against what we infer would be really interesting and useful.  Then we would have an idea of whether reality is a little or a lot better than what we're able to see from USCIS' online updates.

For my part, I'm going to quietly hope that those approval percentage numbers you posted are on the order of 25+% too low.

[Daniel P 2,022]

12 minutes ago, Van & Tiger said:

I do understand that reality is better, but is it "much" better?  Is there any data out there to suggest the degree of difference between what we are able to pull from USCIS and reality?  I wish I had some statistician training, because I think looking at, say, a past month (May or June), tallying approvals, cross-referencing those approvals against what USCIS' online data shows, and extrapolating the information we know against what we infer would be really interesting and useful.  Then we would have an idea of whether reality is a little or a lot better than what we're able to see from USCIS' online updates.

For my part, I'm going to quietly hope that those approval percentage numbers you posted are on the order of 25+% too low.

I don't know what the real difference is, that "much" better might just be on the optimistic side. The only thing I can say with certainty is that those percentages are higher in reality. Maybe @Naes have some idea of the approximate amount of non updated cases and can extrapolate from there.

Edited January 21, 2018 by Daniel P