How The Georgia 6 Result Will Be Interpreted (And How It Should Be Interpreted)

[Amica Nostra 4,803]

We already covered some of this territory on the podcast. But let’s run through a range of scenarios for tonight and what sort of headlines they might lead to in the morning. The last time we did this, for the special election in Montana, we began with the most favorable scenario for Republicans. So this time, let’s begin with the best case for the Democrats.

Ossoff wins by 5 or more points. In this case, Republicans won’t really have a lot of excuses. Democrats will have substantially improved upon their margin from the first round and upon Hillary Clinton’s performance from 2016. And they’ll have done so on what will be considerably higher turnout than in round one, suggesting that their surprisingly good results in previous special elections such as Kansas 4 weren’t just a matter of a lackluster GOP turnout. By the metric we prefer — a 3-to-1 blend of the presidential vote in the last two elections — a 5-point Ossoff victory would be consistent with a national environment that leans Democratic by 14 or 15 points. If Democrats replicated those margins in the midterms next year, they’d flip dozens of GOP seats and very likely win control of the House.

We would note, however, that even with a 5-point Ossoff win, the Democratic overperformance relative to the presidential vote wouldn’t actually be any better than it was in Kansas 4 or Montana. In that sense, the results wouldn’t be all that surprising. Still, Republicans who had ridiculed Democrats for claiming “moral victories” in Kansas 4 and Montana would now have to recognize that they were part of a pattern of Democratic overperformance. That could change the calculus for Republicans as they try to decide how to behave toward Trump and on their health care bill.

Ossoff wins by 1 to 4 points. This would obviously not be a good result for Republicans, but it’s not quite as scary as the one I outlined above. Given that Georgia 6 is an unusual district — highly educated, and traditionally very Republican, but also lukewarm on Trump — I don’t think we should spend all that much time parsing the results provided that they’re within a couple of points either way.....

 

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/georgia-south-carolina-special-elections/?lpup=22818801#livepress-update-22818801

[Dashinka 24,871]

I certainly understand that the press and especially 538 wants to glean as much as they can about the potential national implications of this race, but it is a local election and honestly, most people across the country could care less.

[The Nature Boy 7,659]

Didn't 538 totally botch the Presidential results.

 

It could also be interpreted as the most money ever spent on a congressional election by the rich ,m establishment 

[IAMX 3,055]

5 minutes ago, Bill & Katya said:

I certainly understand that the press and especially 538 wants to glean as much as they can about the potential national implications of this race, but it is a local election and honestly, most people across the country could care less.

Every local election since Trump has been inaugurated is marketed as a referendum on Trump.. thus far they're 0-2. Methinks the left are grasping at straws regardless of the outcome.

[Dashinka 24,871]

4 minutes ago, IAMX said:

Every local election since Trump has been inaugurated is marketed as a referendum on Trump.. thus far they're 0-2. Methinks the left are grasping at straws regardless of the outcome.

That seems to be the case.  If every DNC House candidate in a potential swing district expects to see the same amount of cash for the 2018 midterm as this candidate I think they may be a bit disappointed.

[The Nature Boy 7,659]

27 minutes ago, IAMX said:

Every local election since Trump has been inaugurated is marketed as a referendum on Trump.. thus far they're 0-2. Methinks the left are grasping at straws regardless of the outcome.

I agree but should he win , it would be touted as a national referendum.  The other two don't count.

[CaliCat 3,957]

33 minutes ago, Bill & Katya said:

I certainly understand that the press and especially 538 wants to glean as much as they can about the potential national implications of this race, but it is a local election and honestly, most people across the country could care less.

 

It depends. If the GOP candidate wind, the MDR/MOR will claim it to be an unequivocal repeal of everything Obama, and anyone less than a fascist would desire. If Ossof wins, it will b heralded as some sort of electoral fraud perpetrated by the Left (with a capital L, whatever that means), and that the end of the world will be even closer, and that we should all cling to our guns and bibles, because Sharia law will be just around the corner, waiting to take your kids into submission.

 

And that, is putting it mildly, of course. 

[The Nature Boy 7,659]

1 minute ago, CaliCat said:

 

It depends. If the GOP candidate wind, the MDR/MOR will claim it to be an unequivocal repeal of everything Obama, and anyone less than a fascist would desire. If Ossof wins, it will b heralded as some sort of electoral fraud perpetrated by the Left (with a capital L, whatever that means), and that the end of the world will be even closer, and that we should all cling to our guns and bibles, because Sharia law will be just around the corner, waiting to take your kids into submission.

 

And that, is putting it mildly, of course. 

The MDR might even get butt hurt and not accept him as the legitimate congressmen huh

[CaliCat 3,957]

Just now, Nature Boy Flair said:

The MDR might even get butt hurt and not accept him as the legitimate congressmen huh

 

Crosses may burn! be lit!

Edited June 21, 2017 by CaliCat

[The Nature Boy 7,659]

I was in Atlanta for training last Wednesday.  The guy driving has it on a Urban Atlanta Hip hop station. There was an ad every few mins for the dem. The theme of every ad was- No jail time for bon violent offenders and more massive spending on social programs..

 

No p.o. p.o. and more free stuff.

[Dashinka 24,871]

Would it be misogyny if the female GOP candidate loses?

 

[The Nature Boy 7,659]

3 minutes ago, Bill & Katya said:

Would it be misogyny if the female GOP candidate loses?

 

The misogyny -racism cry only works if they are Democrats 

[Dashinka 24,871]

Just now, Nature Boy Flair said:

The misogyny -racism cry only works if they are Democrats 

I know!  Still thought I would ask.

 

[Amica Nostra 4,803]

 Early results show Ossoff up .7 % but adjusted for where the votes came from NYT puts Handel up .9

[The Nature Boy 7,659]

The NYT has Handel up by .9?  She must be winning by a landslide. I thought I saw Russians in Atlanta last week