I-129f June 2017 filers (merged)

[mysticdolphin95 431]

@MarksMate You can find a list of all the NZ embassy holidays here.  It's all the NZ and US holidays observed (predictably), but they don't have any scheduled holiday shutdowns.  People may be taking time off, who knows - but the embassy itself will be open.

[Hadassah123 523]

7 minutes ago, mysticdolphin95 said:

@MarksMate You can find a list of all the NZ embassy holidays here.  It's all the NZ and US holidays observed (predictably), but they don't have any scheduled holiday shutdowns.  People may be taking time off, who knows - but the embassy itself will be open.

Embassies are usually closed on their own national holidays, and in addition also the national holidays of the country they're in. Double fun for them!

 

What you're saying about the embassy itself being open- I'm not sure that's true. For work I see a lot of visa applications for various countries and those embassies are closed/not processing visa's on any of their own/country's holidays. 

[mysticdolphin95 431]

@Hadassah123 Sorry, I wan't clear - yes, I know the embassy is closed on those specific holidays.  I meant that they're not scheduled to shutdown for a number of weeks over Christmas - as @MarksMate was asking about - like some businesses in NZ do.

[The Squirrel 1,318]

Guys I have to suggest to pay a bit less attention to VJ's timelines. That is actually the reason why I did not fill in my timeline, due to fear of me not be able to follow through to the end. If one person does not fill in they NO2 for example, it only drags the averages down for everybody. That can cause great stress on people, hence I decided against. It would not be fair, almost a sin, to play with good people's emotions because I got lazy or forgot, intentionally or otherwise.

 

I did a little calculation for Tuesday, a gargantuan day it turned out, I hoped it would be a trend, but it is not, so I will wait for end of the day, and average the entire week out. I do still strongly believe 150-160 days. You guys with January NOA2's are just giving in to pessimism, based on your current state of strong desire and helplessness, mix that makes time crawl. Heads up my dear friends, we got this, next month is us, hold me to it !

 

ps @John & Rose  , thanks for the other day, you are a Gentleman. I appreciate every letter you write here. Also, I am waiting for your inner "geek" to come through .  

[TransplantUSA 167]

Dear fellow June filers,

 

Thank you for keeping my head above water with your optimism and helpful comments. I'm a silent lurker on here everyday. It's difficult to explain to family and friends the situation we're in, so I'm glad I have a family here who understand the struggles. 

 

Our time is approaching, albeit slower than expected but it's coming, I can feel it! 

 

Love and hugs! 

Emily

[John & Rose 7,239]

1 minute ago, The Squirrel said:

Guys I have to suggest to pay a bit less attention to VJ's timelines. That is actually the reason why I did not fill in my timeline, due to fear of me not be able to follow through to the end. If one person does not fill in they NO2 for example, it only drags the averages down for everybody. That can cause great stress on people, hence I decided against. It would not be fair, almost a sin, to play with good people's emotions because I got lazy or forgot, intentionally or otherwise.

 

I did a little calculation for Tuesday, a gargantuan day it turned out, I hoped it would be a trend, but it is not, so I will wait for end of the day, and average the entire week out. I do still strongly believe 150-160 days. You guys with January NOA2's are just giving in to pessimism, based on your current state of strong desire and helplessness, mix that makes time crawl. Heads up my dear friends, we got this, next month is us, hold me to it !

 

ps @John & Rose  , thanks for the other day, you are a Gentleman. I appreciate every letter you write here. Also, I am waiting for your inner "geek" to come through .  

Thank you for the kind words.  If you look at the timelines, they are actually pretty good.  Most see NOA2s within a couple days of the estimate but a few are months later.  I haven't seen any non-expedited petitions come in more than a few days around the VJ estimate.  It certainly isn't perfect but I have seen numerous cases where USCIS states to wait another 45 to 60 days and the NOA2 comes on that day or the next.

 

In my case, it is still looking at at least 160 and the Manila Embassy has a LOT of holidays coming up... I am here for the long haul anyway so I am relaxed and patiently waiting to see what happens.  I do appreciate your optimism so I will not look for a week and see what happens...this week went from Nov 4 to Nov 11 for the estimate. 

[John & Rose 7,239]

3 minutes ago, emylady said:

Dear fellow June filers,

 

Thank you for keeping my head above water with your optimism and helpful comments. I'm a silent lurker on here everyday. It's difficult to explain to family and friends the situation we're in, so I'm glad I have a family here who understand the struggles. 

 

Our time is approaching, albeit slower than expected but it's coming, I can feel it! 

 

Love and hugs! 

Emily

Whatever you do, DO NOT ask them to watch 90 Day Fiancee!!!!  LOL  Oh my...

 

I was hoping it would help my friends and family see the big picture but it is just reality TV and they obviously look for the "interesting" couples!!!!  

[TransplantUSA 167]

Just now, John & Rose said:

Whatever you do, DO NOT ask them to watch 90 Day Fiancee!!!!  LOL  Oh my...

 

I was hoping it would help my friends and family see the big picture but it is just reality TV and they obviously look for the "interesting" couples!!!!  

I've heard about that show but I haven't been able to find where to watch full episodes in the UK! I saw a clip that was just ridiculous, could do with a good giggle though! 😀

 

I've stopped talking to them about any of it now in all honesty. I don't think they believe it's really happening and that I'm actually going to be moving to the other side of the world. 

 

I'm just glad you guys are always here. I can't wait to see all the approvals, POE & wedding photos! 

[John & Rose 7,239]

1 minute ago, emylady said:

I've heard about that show but I haven't been able to find where to watch full episodes in the UK! I saw a clip that was just ridiculous, could do with a good giggle though! 😀

 

I've stopped talking to them about any of it now in all honesty. I don't think they believe it's really happening and that I'm actually going to be moving to the other side of the world. 

 

I'm just glad you guys are always here. I can't wait to see all the approvals, POE & wedding photos! 

Looking forward to seeing yours too.  Moving halfway around the world but at least there won't be a communication challenge....we stole most of your language.

[TransplantUSA 167]

37 minutes ago, John & Rose said:

Looking forward to seeing yours too.  Moving halfway around the world but at least there won't be a communication challenge....we stole most of your language.

Oh, we've definitely come across some things that we don't seem to share the same word for. It's given us quite a few laughs! 

 

Are you going to be learning any of your Princesses language? 

[John & Rose 7,239]

1 minute ago, emylady said:

Oh, we've definitely come across some things that we don't seem to share the same word for. It's given us quite a few laughs! 

 

Are you going to be learning any of your Princesses language? 

Just the important stuff like "Mahal na kita asawa kong maganda"...or "I love you my beautiful wife"!!!!

[DandY 134]

1 hour ago, The Squirrel said:

Guys I have to suggest to pay a bit less attention to VJ's timelines. That is actually the reason why I did not fill in my timeline, due to fear of me not be able to follow through to the end. If one person does not fill in they NO2 for example, it only drags the averages down for everybody.

I do not believe your assertion is true. I've created my own prediction algorithm and compared with VJs. I can get results close to VJ from a simple rolling average of "completed" items. From what I can tell, an item is not included into a dataset until it has an NOA2, so people not filling out does not effect the calculation. The more people that fill out, the larger the dataset, the better.

 

It does not seem to have any real trend predictive logic in it. Because of the rolling average, it has been slow to react to the increasing timelines. VJ's predictions have been overly optimistic for well over a month. When mine was predicting 152 days, VJ was still down around 140. Mine is now over 160 and if trend continues, it will be up to 168 in a couple days. So mine has been more pessimistic than VJs (and I would argue more correct as late April filers were right in the range of what mine was predicting).

[DandY 134]

1 hour ago, John & Rose said:

Just the important stuff like "Mahal na kita asawa kong maganda"...or "I love you my beautiful wife"!!!!

I'll wait until my gal wakes up, but I think it is "Mahal kita asawa kong maganda". Or you could say "Mahal na mahal kita asawa kong maganda" for "I love you very much my beautiful wife". But I'll wait to be corrected, my Tagalog does not even reach remedial level.

[John & Rose 7,239]

16 minutes ago, DandY said:

I do not believe your assertion is true. I've created my own prediction algorithm and compared with VJs. I can get results close to VJ from a simple rolling average of "completed" items. From what I can tell, an item is not included into a dataset until it has an NOA2, so people not filling out does not effect the calculation. The more people that fill out, the larger the dataset, the better.

 

It does not seem to have any real trend predictive logic in it. Because of the rolling average, it has been slow to react to the increasing timelines. VJ's predictions have been overly optimistic for well over a month. When mine was predicting 152 days, VJ was still down around 140. Mine is now over 160 and if trend continues, it will be up to 168 in a couple days. So mine has been more pessimistic than VJs (and I would argue more correct as late April filers were right in the range of what mine was predicting).

So 180 is not out of the question as we see no evidence that things will correct their path soon.

3 minutes ago, DandY said:

I'll wait until my gal wakes up, but I think it is "Mahal kita asawa kong maganda". Or you could say "Mahal na mahal kita asawa kong maganda" for "I love you very much my beautiful wife". But I'll wait to be corrected, my Tagalog does not even reach remedial level.

Correct!!!  I meant to say "Mahal na mahal na mahal na mahal kita asawa kong maganda"!!!!!

Edited October 13, 2017 by John & Rose

[Hadassah123 523]

3 hours ago, mysticdolphin95 said:

@Hadassah123 Sorry, I wan't clear - yes, I know the embassy is closed on those specific holidays.  I meant that they're not scheduled to shutdown for a number of weeks over Christmas - as @MarksMate was asking about - like some businesses in NZ do.

ah right, indeed! Luckily