I-129f June 2017 filers (merged)

[John & Rose 7,239]

12 minutes ago, DandY said:

Yes, I don't have much optimism and I still think my likely date as a June 5 NOA1 is Nov 3-6, but we will see. As a side note on the whopping 3, they don't historically work them flat. There are always a couple days higher than the others so that is to be expected. If we have one other good day this week, then they are "on track".

 

As for how I got the 5 people (or to be accurate 5 FTE (full time equivalent) people). Here are my assumptions:

1) VJ timeline represents 8% of total K1 filers (a number I have seen validated with data before)

2) It takes 15 minutes to adjudicate a K1 application (number obtained from description of process from a former adjudicator)

3) A full day is 7 hours of productivity (it is likely closer to 6.5, but lets be optimistic).

 

So, my math:

11 VJ NOA2 / 8% = 137.5 total K1s (round to 138).

 

.25 hours to adjudicate X 138 = 34.5 hours to process those

 

34.5 / 7 productive hours = 4.93 FTE (round to 5).

Are you an engineer by any chance?

 

I really appreciate these types of updates.  I love numbers too!

[DandY 134]

1 minute ago, John & Rose said:

Are you an engineer by any chance?

Does it show?  But not a "real" engineer (but I play one on TV)--I do software.

 

In fact, I automate document-centric workflows very much like the USCIS one! In my analysis of the process (as explained by the former adjudicator), I believe I could implement a system at USCIS that would reduce the 15 minute adjudication process to between 7-9 minutes and add additional savings on initial processing and file routing. So watching this process REALLY pains me because I know how to make it faster and cheaper with not that complex of a software system.

 

 

[John & Rose 7,239]

Just now, DandY said:

Does it show?  But not a "real" engineer (but I play one on TV)--I do software.

 

In fact, I automate document-centric workflows very much like the USCIS one! In my analysis of the process (as explained by the former adjudicator), I believe I could implement a system at USCIS that would reduce the 15 minute adjudication process to between 7-9 minutes and add additional savings on initial processing and file routing. So watching this process REALLY pains me because I know how to make it faster and cheaper with not that complex of a software system.

 

 

Cheaper and faster are not words in the normal US Government's vocabulary!!!!

[June2017UK 430]

2 hours ago, DandY said:

Yes, I don't have much optimism and I still think my likely date as a June 5 NOA1 is Nov 3-6, but we will see. As a side note on the whopping 3, they don't historically work them flat. There are always a couple days higher than the others so that is to be expected. If we have one other good day this week, then they are "on track".

 

As for how I got the 5 people (or to be accurate 5 FTE (full time equivalent) people). Here are my assumptions:

1) VJ timeline represents 8% of total K1 filers (a number I have seen validated with data before)

2) It takes 15 minutes to adjudicate a K1 application (number obtained from description of process from a former adjudicator)

3) A full day is 7 hours of productivity (it is likely closer to 6.5, but lets be optimistic).

 

So, my math:

11 VJ NOA2 / 8% = 137.5 total K1s (round to 138).

 

.25 hours to adjudicate X 138 = 34.5 hours to process those

 

34.5 / 7 productive hours = 4.93 FTE (round to 5).

I compared your analysis with the latest USCIS data last night

.. along with a May filer who’s written some code to check the May filers’ data (he said about 4500 I-129F applications were received in May).. and it all seems pretty accurate, even looking at it from another angle.

 

I’m no math guru or engineer, and I find analysis posts like yours help me keep a reality check on timeline expectations. Please keep posting them.

[DandY 134]

25 minutes ago, June2017UK said:

.. along with a May filer who’s written some code to check the May filers’ data (he said about 4500 I-129F applications were received in May)

Which May filer? March filer twoDs has run alot of data and was more ambitious than me (or not as lazy). I know he wrote a script to pull the database so he could analyze. I'm just happy with arm chair swag analysis.

Edited September 27, 2017 by DandY

[DandY 134]

36 minutes ago, June2017UK said:

I compared your analysis with the latest USCIS data last night

Referenced report can be found here:

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Resources/Reports and Studies/Immigration Forms Data/All Form Types/Quarterly_All_Forms_FY17Q3.pdf

 

Source Page:

https://www.uscis.gov/tools/reports-studies/immigration-forms-data/data-set-all-uscis-application-and-petition-form-types

 

[June2017UK 430]

40 minutes ago, DandY said:

Which May filer? March filer twoDs has run alot of data and was more ambitious than me (or not as lazy). I know he wrote a script to pull the database so he could analyze. I'm just happy with arm chair swag analysis.

It was @Shoegum

 

 

[Lisa & Jorge 494]

5 hours ago, John & Rose said:

Are you an engineer by any chance?

 

I really appreciate these types of updates.  I love numbers too!

You just blew my mind dude 

[Lisa & Jorge 494]

1 hour ago, Deusebom said:

You just blew my mind dude 

@DandY I mean. 

Interesting stuff guys. 

[Mixstars 38]

Hi everyone, so the Uscis received my I-129f on June 6 but I haven't received my noa2. Has anyone that filled around this time gotten theirs? Btw my fiancé lives in Dominican Republic. 

[DandY 134]

3 minutes ago, Mixstars said:

Hi everyone, so the Uscis received my I-129f on June 6 but I haven't received my noa2. Has anyone that filled around this time gotten theirs? Btw my fiancé lives in Dominican Republic. 

No June filer has theirs. Almost no May filers have theirs. And there are still some April filers don't have theirs. Welcome to 2017!

[Mixstars 38]

5 minutes ago, DandY said:

No June filer has theirs. Almost no May filers have theirs. And there are still some April filers don't have theirs. Welcome to 2017!

 

6 minutes ago, DandY said:

No June filer has theirs. Almost no May filers have theirs. And there are still some April filers don't have theirs. Welcome to 2017!

Is there any website where we can get an estimate date?

[Elaine282017 36]

Hi Allthephils!

 

Pardon me for asking so many question. Did they took any documents from him?

 

Thanks!

Edited September 28, 2017 by Elaine282017

[DandY 134]

18 minutes ago, Mixstars said:

 

Is there any website where we can get an estimate date?

This web site is about as good as it gets. If you fill out your timeline here, it will give you an estimate. They have been semi-accurate of late, but it will give you something.

[Allthephils 536]

17 minutes ago, Elaine282017 said:

Hi Allthephils!

 

Pardon me for asking so many question. Did they took any documents from him?

 

Thanks!

He said they only looked at his passport, NBI, and CENOMAR briefly. They didn’t keep anything. Nor did they ask for evidence of going relationship or my personal docs I sent. 

 

I would take everything that the the website says to bring just in case. 

Edited September 28, 2017 by Allthephils