I-129f June 2017 filers (merged)

[sadsadcez 26]

6 minutes ago, Allthephils said:

THE CASE RIGHT AFTER MINE HAS BEEN TOUCHED!!!!!!! They received an RFE, but still!! I'm not sure if I should be excited or nervous. 

Whats your Noa1?

[DandY 134]

11 minutes ago, Nefertari said:

 

You were right 

OK, I'll stop grinding this axe, it is just annoying me.

 

How is he right? You were approved at 177 days. Weeks and weeks and weeks ago I built a mathematical model to predict the approval times of early June (of which I am one). I predicted between 174-178 days as the average for the bulk of them two months ago (though I did acknowledge I did not adjust for thanksgiving which puts average more likely at 176-180).

 

He predicted 160 days.

 

177 is in 174-178 (or 176-180 thanksgiving adjusted).

177 is not equal to 160 or even that close as far as these things go.

 

How was he right? It is pretty easy to say once the approvals start rolling in for a day it will keep going--that takes no analytical skills!

 

I guess if I just came in an spouted positive stuff, no matter how often it is wrong, I'd be told how great I was. Live and learn. 

[Gtuf22 76]

2 minutes ago, DandY said:

OK, I'll stop grinding this axe, it is just annoying me.

 

How is he right? You were approved at 177 days. Weeks and weeks and weeks ago I built a mathematical model to predict the approval times of early June (of which I am one). I predicted between 174-178 days as the average for the bulk of them two months ago (though I did acknowledge I did not adjust for thanksgiving which puts average more likely at 176-180).

 

He predicted 160 days.

 

177 is in 174-178 (or 176-180 thanksgiving adjusted).

177 is not equal to 160 or even that close as far as these things go.

 

How was he right? It is pretty easy to say once the approvals start rolling in for a day it will keep going--that takes no analytical skills!

 

I guess if I just came in an spouted positive stuff, no matter how often it is wrong, I'd be told how great I was. Live and learn. 

Have you built a model predicting for those in the latter half of June?

[The Squirrel 1,318]

17 minutes ago, DandY said:

OK, I'll stop grinding this axe, it is just annoying me.

 

How is he right? You were approved at 177 days. Weeks and weeks and weeks ago I built a mathematical model to predict the approval times of early June (of which I am one). I predicted between 174-178 days as the average for the bulk of them two months ago (though I did acknowledge I did not adjust for thanksgiving which puts average more likely at 176-180).

 

He predicted 160 days.

 

177 is in 174-178 (or 176-180 thanksgiving adjusted).

177 is not equal to 160 or even that close as far as these things go.

 

How was he right? It is pretty easy to say once the approvals start rolling in for a day it will keep going--that takes no analytical skills!

 

I guess if I just came in an spouted positive stuff, no matter how often it is wrong, I'd be told how great I was. Live and learn. 

 

 

You got issues my dude. Stay well and far away from me.

 

I remain

Edited November 29, 2017 by The Squirrel

[Lisa & Jorge 494]

23 minutes ago, Allthephils said:

THE CASE RIGHT AFTER MINE HAS BEEN TOUCHED!!!!!!! They received an RFE, but still!! I'm not sure if I should be excited or nervous. 

this is how I have been feeling for a week..... 

[John & Rose 7,239]

9 minutes ago, DandY said:

OK, I'll stop grinding this axe, it is just annoying me.

 

How is he right? You were approved at 177 days. Weeks and weeks and weeks ago I built a mathematical model to predict the approval times of early June (of which I am one). I predicted between 174-178 days as the average for the bulk of them two months ago (though I did acknowledge I did not adjust for thanksgiving which puts average more likely at 176-180).

 

He predicted 160 days.

 

177 is in 174-178 (or 176-180 thanksgiving adjusted).

177 is not equal to 160 or even that close as far as these things go.

 

How was he right? It is pretty easy to say once the approvals start rolling in for a day it will keep going--that takes no analytical skills!

 

I guess if I just came in an spouted positive stuff, no matter how often it is wrong, I'd be told how great I was. Live and learn. 

He was right because he told her this week.  Since this is fluid the rightness is fluid too.  You called it months ago but with everything else going on the only thing that matters is the approval today...  Plus he also told me this week so I'm not going to upset the NOA2 Gods!!!

 

I'm at 176 and I'm hoping to hear something in the next two days.  If I don't. I hope to hear something next week...if I dont I am hoping for the week after that.  It all comes down to getting approved when they approve you!

[INNSU09 242]

I’m sensing another one of those “waking up to a few pages full of back and forth arguments”

 

well, back to lurking for me. 

 

[John & Rose 7,239]

38 minutes ago, sadsadcez said:

OMG! USCIS received ours on June 5th, and got our NOA1 on June 7th. When do you think my NOA2 get approved? 

As soon as possible!  I bet your approval is this week or early next week.  It is all up to California now!

[June2017UK 430]

🙏 Please, please no more talk on who was right or who was wrong a few weeks / months ago. It’s sapping everyone’s energy just reading a grown man saying ‘I told you so’ over and over again - who cares.

We only care about the current state. Many thanks

[John & Rose 7,239]

Just now, June2017UK said:

🙏 Please, please no more talk on who was right or who was wrong a few weeks / months ago. It’s sapping everyone’s energy just reading a grown man saying ‘I told you so’ over and over again - who cares.

We only care about the current state. Many thanks

Correct.  We are all within days/weeks of approval.  The stress now is much worse than it was a couple months ago.  Today my company just won a 10 year $205M contract so my focus (and stress) is solely on Rose and the kids and this process.  That was a huge burden lifted but I really don't want any more fighting here.  I want us all to get the NOA2 so we can start complaining about NVC!

[Daniel P 2,022]

Hi guys one again.

 

After uncountable hours trying to figure out how to do this, and some more actually doing it, I think I finally found a way to see, day by day, how the processing time from Received to Approved evolves over the time. It's been 3 long days, but I'm on vacation this week and finally got the time to finish it.

 

Below is a graph with the average processing time of all cases received every considered day and approved within the next 173 days from each of those days.

 

Example: For all cases received the 3rd of April I calculated the average processing time of all of those cases approved within the next 173 days from that day; from 04/03/17 to 09/23/17. The same goes for all cases received the 4th of April, but only considering approvals up to 09/24/17, and so on.

 

The explanation for it being 173 days is that that is the amount of days from the last day considered 05/31/17 up to the last scan available 11/20/17.

 

It was important to do it this way because this time I'm comparing all days individually, hence they had to be considered under the same circumstances. As in my previous graphs, only updated cases could be used for these results.

 

The interpretation is pretty easy and I think it gives a very good idea of (at last!) what the tendency is being (which was the whole purpose of going into so much trouble ). I will only say that April has some pretty inconsistent days for which I don't have a clear answer (maybe they assigned each of those days' cases to faster or slower adjudicators?? I simply don't know). Also the original April file had to be manually modified (thanks again to Naes!), although I'm not sure that had anything to do with it.

 

As for May, it is much consistent and appears to show some stabilization after that nightmarish growth, which hopefully means what we all want to see, the first beams of light at the end of the tunnel.

 

 

[britishandusa 446]

13 hours ago, The Squirrel said:

Here again all credits go to "The Big 3" ! 

 

NOTE: I only have May numbers from last night @Naes, and midday scan from @Shoegum, so numbers can only be better.   

 

To ease you into this, we are looking good . So far 5 of 22 days in June have been touched. May weeks are dwindling, almost done, there is no more room for adjudicators to hide, but to go June. Here go the weeks first, as they are most important:

 

1st week  - 102 cases left

2nd week - 135 cases left

3rd week  - 270 cases left

4th week   - 515 cases left

The Hump- 383 cases left

1st week  - 825 cases left

2nd week - 775 cases to go

3rd week  - 836 cases to go

Last week - 763 cases to go

 

 

May 30th with  216

May 31st with   39 

June  1st with   27

June 2nd with  101

------------------------------

Week Total :     383

 

May 30th now looks big pedestrian with 216 cases, but keep in mind that 2 weeks ago it had 422 cases, so it is almost half done at 48.8% (it is over 50% at this point we just didn't get the scan). Next 2 days are a joke with 66 cases combined, and the last day in that week is at the magic line, about to dip into double digits. With 3 days to go, June 2nd should be at about 65-75 mark on Friday, and done completely by mid next week. Today June 2nd had 4 approvals and 5 RFE's, so rest of the way this week should be all approvals. 

 

And next is the first full week of June that is melting before our eyes . Big show on what is to come! It still counts relatively high, robust 825 cases, of total 975 it had 7 working days ago.  Days are as follows:

 

June 5th  -  149

June 6th  -   229

June 7th  -   116 (untouched)

June 8th  -   184 

June 9th  -   147 (untouched)

---------------------------

Total  -  825  cases untouched

 

Here you have a totally different landscape than 10 days ago, Monday the 5th has gone from 2nd highest day in two months combined, all the way down to 12th highest day of 44 days total. Now that my friends is a freefall ! And than today, that same day gets answered loud and clear - 10 cases touched, all 10 cases RFE's. Following is as per the established pattern, a bonanza of approvals. Sooooo....

 

@DuaneAnna 

@tifmiklos 

@Hadassah123 

@GarryAndMarie

@Allen&Ann 

@britishandusa 

@Ivan D 

@Nefertari

@viNs

@IshTre

 

......... if you guys survived today without the RFE, you should be at the exit door, with tears in your eyes, saying goodbye to this semi sane family you made here, thanks to your journey. Some will go before others, first ones celebrate hard, ones that have to wait another day or few just cool and graceful, it's real and it is here, about to be you. 

 

June 8th thoroughly surprised me, I thought Thursday, but I thought June 7th would go Wednesday. So I may get ladder one to be a go, but now I'm thinking one group will do 7th and 8th, and other will start 9th and 12th Thursday with RFE's, Friday with approvals, and following week - bonanza !   

 

Sorry if I sound a little slow... does this mean that I should be expecting NOA 2 soon? I don't understand why I was tagged in this. I'm June 5th, still waiting on an approval.  

[IshTre 288]

1 minute ago, John & Rose said:

Correct.  We are all within days/weeks of approval.  The stress now is much worse than it was a couple months ago.  Today my company just won a 10 year $205M contract so my focus (and stress) is solely on Rose and the kids and this process.  That was a huge burden lifted but I really don't want any more fighting here.  I want us all to get the NOA2 so we can start complaining about NVC!

Congrats on the contract. Let me know if you're hiring.  

[Tony and Tillie 340]

42 minutes ago, INNSU09 said:

I used to work EXACTLY around that area you were staying at. Is it Forbsetown road? With the long strip of restaurants? The building with the robinson’s grocery and the starbucks next to it. That’s a pretty posh area 

It is an upscale area. My fiancée works at the Bench Tower on 30th St. We stay at the Forbeswood Parklane whenever I'm in town. It's right across 8 Forbestown Road where the Bellagio Towers are. I love BGC - it's a very global area!

[sadsadcez 26]

12 minutes ago, John & Rose said:

As soon as possible!  I bet your approval is this week or early next week.  It is all up to California now!

Im hoping too. 🙏🏻☝🏻