I-129f June 2017 filers (merged)

[Daniel P 2,022]

So... this is the distribution and the Gauss curve for the number of days between received and approved cases, for the month of May 2017 (as to 11/20/2017). I left out seven cases that seemed to be expedites. Additionally, I only considered received cases, meaning I also left out some cases that had already been touched, like Date of Birth or Name updated cases. The remaining cases (and big majority) used for this calculations made a total of 1522.

 

Those 1522 cases gave a mean of 169.95 days from Received to Approval date, with a stardard deviation of 9.46 days.

 

That curve below is actually very useful to get some interesting probabilities. If we assumed that June is going to follow a not very different pattern than the previous month, we could say that, for example:

• The probability for a June filer to be approved in less than 160 days is only 14.65%.
• That the probability for a June filer to be approved between 160 and 180 days is 70.95%.
• That the probability for a June filer to be approved in more than 170 days is (an astonishing) 49.78%.
• Or that the probability for a June filer to be approved in more than 180 days is (a still astonishing) 29.67%.

 

Hopefully the processing times will lower in the next months and we'll see how that curve will slowly be moving to the left and those percentages lower or raise in our favor. Fingers crossed!! 

 

 

[Naes 12,205]

5 minutes ago, Daniel P said:

So... this is the distribution and the Gauss curve for the number of days between received and approved cases, for the month of May 2017 (as to 11/20/2017). I left out seven cases that seemed to be expedites. Additionally, I only considered received cases, meaning I also left out some cases that had already been touched, like Date of Birth or Name updated cases. The remaining cases (and big majority) used for this calculations made a total of 1522.

 

Those 1522 cases gave a mean of 169.95 days from Received to Approval date, with a stardard deviation of 9.46 days.

 

That curve below is actually very useful to get some interesting probabilities. If we assumed that June is going to follow a not very different pattern than the previous month, we could say that, for example:

• The probability for a June filer to be approved in less than 160 days is only 14.65%.
• That the probability for a June filer to be approved between 160 and 180 days is 70.95%.
• That the probability for a June filer to be approved in more than 170 days is (an astonishing) 49.78%.
• Or that the probability for a June filer to be approved in more than 180 days is (a still astonishing) 29.67%.

 

Hopefully the processing times will lower in the next months and we'll see how that curve will slowly be moving to the left and those percentages lower or raise in our favor. Fingers crossed!! 

 

 

Finally someone did this!!! 

[Naes 12,205]

@Daniel P

 

could you do this every month?

 

because I did this last month and it looked way different for June, so it would be awesome if we can have it updated monthly!!

 

i cannot use my work pc for anything as it's secure and my pc is barely moving to scan and share! 

 

And thank you you for doing this with the logic included to explain  

Edited November 24, 2017 by Naes

[Daniel P 2,022]

Just now, Naes said:

@Daniel P

 

could you do this every month?

 

i cannot use my work pc for anything as it's secure and my pc is barely moving to scan and share! 

Sure I will, I had so much fun doing it for May. I also wanted to do it for April, but I don't have the raw data for that month before it was touched. Do you have it by any chance? 

[Naes 12,205]

Just now, Daniel P said:

Sure I will, I had so much fun doing it for May. I also wanted to do it for April, but I don't have the raw data for that month before it was touched. Do you have it by any chance? 

I have it from the start of Q1 of this year. That's why when I tried it was always giving me a 165-175 for June. Because the data wasn't consistent enough. I'll try to provide tonight!  but these data is so weird you read the weirdo cases I wrote? 

 

[Daniel P 2,022]

3 minutes ago, Naes said:

I have it from the start of Q1 of this year. That's why when I tried it was always giving me a 165-175 for June. Because the data wasn't consistent enough. I'll try to provide tonight!  but these data is so weird you read the weirdo cases I wrote? 

 

Yes, I read something about it, but I think there are enough "normal" cases to not have to worry too much about that minority, because they don't really affect to the majority.

[Naes 12,205]

1 minute ago, Daniel P said:

Yes, I read something about it, but I think there are enough "normal" cases to not have to worry too much about that minority, because they don't really affect to the majority.

Awesome it's only 55or so abnormality right now.and we have a bigger load than before..

 

i cant wait to go home to send you😁😁😁😁

[June2017UK 430]

OMG I love this, you number crunchers getting deep down and ‘ahem’ with the data. Thanks so much. Whilst I’m not enthused with the numbers, what you’re all doing is so impressive.

USCIS should be banging your doors down to do their next quarterly updates! 

[Daniel P 2,022]

I made a little mistake on the last probability, by the way. That one was meant for more than 175 days. For more than 180 days is 14.40%. Sorry.

[The Squirrel 1,318]

4 hours ago, Daniel P said:

So...

 

Sooooo .

 

 

I have to say, there will be fireworks, magic will happen on daily basis by the time your months come around. You guys have some crew ! Take it home in style !

 

 

Edited November 24, 2017 by The Squirrel

[viNs 10]

Can anyone tell the time that NVC is taking now.. I am June 5th filer and it seems NOA2 is approaching close so I want to calculate all the dates.. Help me pls

[vocaledge 3,340]

June 12th filer......

 

No update online or on Scan.....

 

BUT YET TODAY ON INFORMED DELIVERY MY FIANCÉ HAS A LETTER COMING FROM USCIS DATED NOV 17TH

 

OMGOMGOMGOMGOMGOMGOMGOMG

 

 

[ChuAni 1,191]

5 minutes ago, vocaledge said:

June 12th filer......

 

No update online or on Scan.....

 

BUT YET TODAY ON INFORMED DELIVERY MY FIANCÉ HAS A LETTER COMING FROM USCIS DATED NOV 17TH

 

OMGOMGOMGOMGOMGOMGOMGOMG

 

 

Wow!!!!

 

That's the Thanksgiving Gift from USCIS!!!!!!!!!

 

Whuups!

[Naes 12,205]

4 minutes ago, vocaledge said:

June 12th filer......

 

No update online or on Scan.....

 

BUT YET TODAY ON INFORMED DELIVERY MY FIANCÉ HAS A LETTER COMING FROM USCIS DATED NOV 17TH

 

OMGOMGOMGOMGOMGOMGOMGOMG

 

 

I knew it!!!! Congratulations!!!! 

It's on it's way......

 

Please let us know the noa date

Dammmm I'm really so happy for you 

this made my day!!

[ChuAni 1,191]

6 minutes ago, vocaledge said:

June 12th filer......

 

No update online or on Scan.....

 

BUT YET TODAY ON INFORMED DELIVERY MY FIANCÉ HAS A LETTER COMING FROM USCIS DATED NOV 17TH

 

OMGOMGOMGOMGOMGOMGOMGOMG

 

 

...wait a minute! You say, 'June 12th?' Wow! Keep us updated!

 

I'm an October Filer, but already feeling like a Juneier!