I-129f June 2017 filers (merged)

[DandY 134]

44 minutes ago, The Squirrel said:

PLEASE TRY TO READ 

 

Highlighted in red color above, example of 60 you need?

 

ps  Rest of your questions, or if you have more, I can gladly answer tonight. A little thank you for Naes would be nice  

I have tried to read your posts. I'm sorry, but I have great difficulty understanding the thesis in many of the posts so I am attempting to clarify. But feel free to ignore this as I'm pretty much done after this one.

 

I don't know what "Highlighted in red color above, example of 60 you need?" means. I assume you are asking what I mean by that? If so it is this:

1) There are approximately 4300 May filers.

2) about 8% on average on are VJ with timelines. That is about 350 people here.

3) You claimed in a previous post that 15-25% of all cases were updated on the website late. 

4) If 60 of the 350 May filers here said that happened to them, it would be 17% of the VJ May filers, which could then be extrapolated to your 15-25% claim (though a bit of a stretch on the high side).

 

I have followed the May thread and cannot find 60 people that have claimed that. So, as you make these bold claims, I'm simply asking for the data and logic that results in your conclusion in much the same way you have asked for mine. What's good for the goose...

 

Since you want me to thank Naes, does that mean you are thanking me for all the work I put in over the past months calculating our likely average wait since at this point your claim of 160 days AVERAGE for early June is extremely unlikely?

 

[John & Rose 7,239]

Another May approval just now.  Day 174 (May 11 NOA1).  Keep 'em coming.

[Naes 12,205]

3 hours ago, The Squirrel said:

I love you @Naes !!! You are awesome!!! Thank you very much for this !!!

 

 

Just a note, May has 300+ less "virgins" than you show. Can you double check that? 

Yes shoegum informed me. Some rejected were not included. He excluded from scans and I used that data. He sent me the overall results and I will put them in the weekend together with these 

[useful89 692]

13 minutes ago, DandY said:

I have tried to read your posts. I'm sorry, but I have great difficulty understanding the thesis in many of the posts so I am attempting to clarify. But feel free to ignore this as I'm pretty much done after this one.

 

I don't know what "Highlighted in red color above, example of 60 you need?" means. I assume you are asking what I mean by that? If so it is this:

1) There are approximately 4300 May filers.

2) about 8% on average on are VJ with timelines. That is about 350 people here.

3) You claimed in a previous post that 15-25% of all cases were updated on the website late. 

4) If 60 of the 350 May filers here said that happened to them, it would be 17% of the VJ May filers, which could then be extrapolated to your 15-25% claim (though a bit of a stretch on the high side).

 

I have followed the May thread and cannot find 60 people that have claimed that. So, as you make these bold claims, I'm simply asking for the data and logic that results in your conclusion in much the same way you have asked for mine. What's good for the goose...

 

Since you want me to thank Naes, does that mean you are thanking me for all the work I put in over the past months calculating our likely average wait since at this point your claim of 160 days AVERAGE for early June is extremely unlikely?

 

For what it's worth, I sincerely thank you and everyone else who's worked the numbers and everything, whether people's conclusions were wrong or right. You guys are stars in my book 

[Naes 12,205]

2 hours ago, The Squirrel said:

 

I thought yesterday we did good, but actually we did more than good, we did great !!! I just checked "Igor's list" and between my post and this morning another 5 members from May have updated their timelines, so the total has swelled to 13 ! Wooooowww ! And to add to that, there is a May 18th case approved, naturally not on our scans, and that is Thursday of that week (and day later Friday has about 80 cases total) 

 

So the totals changed for the better, meaning that the forum members made up 19.4% of the total work "done" by USCIS.

 

yesterday: USCIS approved total 69 - 13 approved forum members

Forum had almost 20% of the total approved (19.4%)

Total approved yesterday and updated by USCIS is only 2.4% of the pending grand total

 

Should USCIS numbers run parallel to forum's (as our forum is a pure percentage "sample") USCIS had:

 

533 approved petitions yesterday  

People are more frustrated with the wait so maybe even more people are searching the net and come and use this forum. Would be my guess!

[daleguthery 305]

@Naes Mine is 53556. When do you predict mine will be touched?

[Naes 12,205]

9 minutes ago, daleguthery said:

@Naes Mine is 53556. When do you predict mine will be touched?

I really don't predict anything... I wish I could... 

in my opinion with these numbers; 

Based on, we were right about having 700+ cases to be touched last week;

so I am hoping we are right that June will start next week slowly and mid June will be around thanksgiving.

And half of July cases to be touched this year at least..

 

right now with those numbers 11000 cases at least will be touched however they are behind 7000 cases. Unless they speed up to 1000+ per week, it looks really hard to even guess...

 

i will I'll try to put an overall forecast, a full version for those pictures updated.

[Rebecca & Kelvin 136]

Hi Naes,  I am an Oct filer. Do you know how many k1 are there in total for Oct 17? In VJ, i can see 80+, which is a lot less compare with previous months. People are saying usually in winder, filing number for K1 would be lower. Does this mean processing rate for our Oct filer would be quicker?

[Naes 12,205]

2 minutes ago, Rebecca & Kelvin said:

Hi Naes,  I am an Oct filer. Do you know how many k1 are there in total for Oct 17? In VJ, i can see 80+, which is a lot less compare with previous months. People are saying usually in winder, filing number for K1 would be lower. Does this mean processing rate for our Oct filer would be quicker?

I would guess overall 3000+

 

however i I didn't check it.

the reason for that;

well I was September and selfish (sorry)

 

but more than that as you guys are a new fiscal year your number starts with WAC1890... which I found by the research I made to understand how these numbers were given.( see we were 1790 because it was 2017 fiscal year) and I just found this recently. Because people seem to believe we get personal information through these numbers (not correct - I don't even know the countries-) I felt it wouldn't be appropriate to ask and make them even more suspicious...even people who can't find their case numbers in the list doesn't tell me... hence I have to scan a big batch when that happens..

 

and one more reason is because I am expecting it to calm down to a more normal levels by the time you guys start..

 

in the end i scanned approximately 200000 case status and it takes a lot of time. I can scan Approximately  15000-20000 per day. I can check to see how many you guys have, as I also want to see the rejections but it will take a little time.

 

[Rebecca & Kelvin 136]

4 minutes ago, Naes said:

I would guess overall 3000+

 

however i I didn't check it.

the reason for that;

well I was September and selfish (sorry)

 

but more than that as you guys are a new fiscal year your number starts with WAC1890... which I found by the research I made to understand how these numbers were given.( see we were 1790 because it was 2017 fiscal year) and I just found this recently. Because people seem to believe we get personal information through these numbers (not correct - I don't even know the countries-) I felt it wouldn't be appropriate to ask and make them even more suspicious...even people who can't find their case numbers in the list doesn't tell me... hence I have to scan a big batch when that happens..

 

and one more reason is because I am expecting it to calm down to a more normal levels by the time you guys start..

 

in the end i scanned approximately 200000 case status and it takes a lot of time. I can scan Approximately  15000-20000 per day. I can check to see how many you guys have, as I also want to see the rejections but it will take a little time.

 

I see you are Sep, then I was like thinking " omg, how come you are not Oct" ( i am kind of want to drag you into Oct, so you can pay more attention to us) Hahaha, just kidding~~~

[Naes 12,205]

2 minutes ago, Rebecca & Kelvin said:

I see you are Sep, then I was like thinking " omg, how come you are not Oct" ( i am kind of want to drag you into Oct, so you can pay more attention to us) Hahaha, just kidding~~~

If these estimations goes correctly ( which I am happy so far it did, but there are so many reasons it may not, and anybody here can be right about 180 days or whatever can come upon us) I leave it to someone who can do the scans as it's been given to me too.

 And who knows we may be as well all mixed like April and May( oh please notttt)

 but you guys should relax for now and read whichever month they're on right now, or not if it stresses you more. (That's why I'm doing this numbers, in my case it relaxes me 😊)

[MarksMate 227]

3 hours ago, Naes said:

No it is not supposed to be (I checked and list is full, please try another browser)

however, it can happen, so if you still cannot find your case, I will look into it deeply, please inform me again in direct message

I hadn't' realised it doesn't show everything in the phone, I checked on my computer and it is there.

 

Many Thanks!!

[Desi1012 209]

Hello I’m new to this site I’m on day 146 on June 8 my docs were received 🤦🏾‍♀️ This has been the only waiting game. 

[Naes 12,205]

3 hours ago, John & Rose said:

Another May approval just now.  Day 174 (May 11 NOA1).  Keep 'em coming.

Even though numbers started to pick up, after seeing May 22 and 30s numbers I'm leaning towards your idea of end of next week of after Veterans Day.... it's scary they have way more than any other month!

 They really need to peak soon!

[John & Rose 7,239]

12 minutes ago, Naes said:

Even though numbers started to pick up, after seeing May 22 and 30s numbers I'm leaning towards your idea of end of next week of after Veterans Day.... it's scary they have way more than any other month!

 They really need to peak soon!

I would love to see 160 for early June I just don’t  feel it in my bones.  I think November 13 is when June 1 starts in earnest. Still seeing the 165 to 170 for June. The holidays really are bugging me for some reason.  Even the May approvals we are seeing now are still in the 170 to 175 day range.